Horse Races Today: Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Downs Analysis & Odds

Horse Racing Action at TVG!
With 1-2 inches of rain forecast for Will Rogers Downs and my love affair with Fonner Park a thing of the past, we will head out to Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday afternoon.
The weather is perfect and we have an outstanding eight race card on tap that features four turf races.
The opener is $8,000 non-winners of three test on the main track which kicks off the early Pick 5 which has a 50-cent increment.
It is a really tough sequence, but both Pioneerof New York in the second race and Super Twenty Five in the third both looking like legit favorites.
With only eight races today the late Pick 5 starts in the fourth race, so the two wagers overlap. Both the fourth and fifth races look ripe for longshots and it looks as if we may be able to beat the morning line favorite in the final two races on the card.
We will be back in action at Gulfstream Park on Thursday
Horseplayers can stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
To purchase my Tampa Bay Downs Report for Wednesday click here.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Gulfstream Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
Here is the opening race from Tampa Bay Downs to get the day off to a good start:

Tampa Bay Downs Race 1 Analysis - 4/22

TAM Race 1 Clm $8,000N3L (12:30 ET)
#9 Upper Crown   9-2
#2 The Kahn   5-2
#3 Big Rig   4-1
#5 Sunshines Out   6-1
Analysis: Upper Crown set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out at this level. The gelding had run a good second two back where he had carved out the early fractions but was unable to hold off the winner in the stretch. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and catches a field her without a ton of early zip signed up. He is 0 for 4 since beating non-winners of two in gate to wire fashion here back in January but may be able to handle this group.
The Kahn stalked the early pace and was no match for an eight-length winner last out in a runner up finish last out in his second start after landing with the Bennett barn. The gelding was sixth on turf two back against $16,000 non-winners of three. He faces an easier group here for a sharp barn having a good meeting. A logical threat her although our top pick is likely going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

Tampa Bay Downs Featured Race of the Day - 4/22

TAM Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:30 ET)
#5 Creed   5-2
#7 Blame the Cake   9-5
#6 Sense of Justice   3-1
#3 Land Mark Deal   12-1
Analysis: Creed makes his debut for the Shug barn that is 15% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The colt was a $650,000 Keeneland purchase, by Honor Code out of a stakes placed Seeking the Gold mare that has dropped five foals to race with four winners. A solid string of works on the morning tab at Payson and this colt looks ready to go. Gallardo is a plus.
Blame the Cake was a game second in his debut at Saratoga last July in his debut for a barn that rarely wins first time out. He regressed second out where he checked in fourth beaten 11 lengths and hit the bench. He returns here for the Wilkes barn that is 20% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. The $16,000 Ocala purchase is by Blame out of a Stormy Atlantic mare that has dropped one winner.
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Tampa Bay Downs
R2: #3 No Sniveling   10-1
R3: #10 Drinks On Maggie   8-1
R3: #3 Alluring Approval   8-1
R4: #2 Louie’s Backyard   20-1
R5: #7 Cave Run   8-1
R6: #9 Patent Digna   12-1
R7: #3 Land Mark Deal   12-1
Good luck today!