Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM

Horse Races Today: Sunday's Gulfstream Park and Tampa Analysis & Odds

Horse Racing Action at TVG!
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert won both divisions of the Arkansas Derby (G1) yesterday at Oaklawn Park and has something we kind of knew all along—he is locked and loaded for the Kentucky Derby.
 
Charlatan made his stakes debut a winning one, rolling to a six-length victory in the first division. The colt paid $2.80 and stopped the timer for the nine furlongs in 1:48.49.
 
Two races later Nadal stayed undefeated by winning the second division by three lengths, paying his backers $3.80. His time was 1:48.34.
 
Sandwiched between those two races was the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and By My Standards got home as my top pick paying $11.00 with Warrior’s Charge completing a nice exacta that paid $81.40.
 
In the feature at Gulfstream Park yesterday my second choice Micheline pulled off the upset in the Honey Ryder, returning $37.40. Along with my top pick Highland Glory the $2 exacta paid $116.80.
 
The highlight of the day was my to pick Jamaican wiring the field in the fifth race at Gulfstream Park, paying $26.20. My second choice Valdocco completed a $2 exacta that paid $127.80.
 
Yesterday was closing day at Oaklawn Park, so we will head out to Tampa Bay Downs for some of our Sunday action.  My Best Plays Report for today includes my nine strongest plays from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park.
 
FS1 covers the action from 2:30 to 5:00 ET and FS2 will televise the races from 12:30 to 1:30 ET. The NBC Sports Network will simulcast the TVG Network from 4:00 to 8:00 ET.
 
Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
To purchase my Gulfstream Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Gulfstream Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

Gulfstream Park Race 1 Analysis - 5/3

GP Race 1 Md $12,500 (12:45 ET)
#8 Crystalina   8-1
#12 Marianna Queen   6-1
#3 Etana   1-1
#6 Aunt Irene   12-1
 
Analysis: Crystalina stretches back out to a mile after a fifth last out going 5 1/2 furlongs. She as bumped coming out of the gate and last away and passed a few tiring runners in a fifth-place finish. She carved out the early fractions and cold not hold of the winner late in a runner up finish going a mile two back in her second career start and first on the main track. She is bred to go long, by Candy Ride out of an Unbridled's Song mare that has dropped two other foals to race with one winner. The barn is 17% winners moving runners from sprint to route. Decent value if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.
 
Marianna Queen was outrun last out in an 11th place finish on turf versus $25,000 foes off a 3 1/2-month break. Pedigree wise she seems better suited for the main track. She is by Will Take Charge out of the stakes winner Nasty Rumor ($86,311). Looking for a better effort here on the class drop and surface switch. The barn is 15% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.

Tampa Bay Downs Featured Race of the Day - 5/3

TAM Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:42 ET)
#8 Complete Surprise   10-1
#12 Windfall Profit   3-1
#9 All Others Follow   7-2
#4 Tomorra   6-1
 
Analysis: Complete Surprise is back on turf here for her third career start. She did not have a good trip in her debut, getting off a beat slow when hopping at the break and had to steady in traffic in upper stretch, tiring to finish 10th. She put in an improved effort in her local debut here on the main track in a runner up finish. The winner Embossed beat Alw-1 optional claimer in her next start and is now stakes placed. Our top pick is bred to like turf, by Magician out of a Bernstein mare. She returns off the bench for a barn that has weak numbers with layoff types, but this gal figures to be a generous price in this spot.
 
Windfall Profit just missed last out in a tough beat here at a mile off nearly a  six month layoff, beaten just a nose. She came up short in three starts last year but has matured with the break for the Shug barn. This filly is out of the turf stakes winner Hit It Rich ($521,810) who has dropped three other foals to race with a pair of turf winners. She draws a tough post but showed a good turn of foot last out and should be tighter second off the shelf.

Gulfstream Park Featured Race of the Day - 5/3

GP Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:48 ET)
#3 Estilo Talentoso   4-1
#2 Token   8-5
#6 Guazza   3-1
#8 Sport'n Forty   8-1
 
Analysis: Estilo Talentoso adds blinkers after coming up short as the chalk last out at Tampa Bay Downs where the filly prompted the early pace and could not catch the winner in the stretch in a runner up finish. She earned a solid number here two back where she stalked the early pace and finished up well in a runner up finish. She was nearly eight lengths clear of the rest of the field in that outing. She is out of an Afleet Alex mare that has dropped one winner. She is bred to handle the extra ground here.
 
Token earned the top last out speed fig in a runner up finish last out in her first start around two turns, no match for a 6 1/2 length winner Evountante, a talented looking filly from the McPeek barn. She cuts back to a mile which means one turn. Two back at this distance she headed for home with a clear lead and got run down. She came back with a bullet breeze on April 28 and looks tough here for the Mott barn. She has a nice pedigree, by Curlin and the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Sign ($149,125) who won the 2012 Pocahontas (G2) as a juvenile and made just one start after that.

Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Gulfstream Park
R1: #8 Crystalina   8-1
R1: #6 Aunt Irene   12-1
R2: #5 Summer Mischief   10-1
R2: #9 Si Es Goya   8-1
R3: #6 Fantastry   8-1
R4: #3 Competitive Saint   8-1
R5: #2 Venerate   8-1
R7: #8 Sport’n Forty   8-1
R8: #3 For Kicks   8-1
R8: #4 Cassidy’s Smile   8-1
R10: #1 Rule Yourself   8-1
R12: #8 King Orb   10-1
 
Good luck today!

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