Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM

Horse Races Today: Saturday's Gulfstream Park and Tampa Bay Downs Analysis & Odds

Horse Racing Action at TVG!
We capped off Friday with my top pick Noble Alma getting the job done in the nightcap, and she went off at a nice overlay, returning $36.00 to win off her 6-1 morning line, and we don’t see that happen very often.
 
The Jackpot 6 went unsolved for the 12th consecutive day, leaving a carryover going into Saturday of $1,481,488.75. There is a mandatory payout and with only two thoroughbred tracks running, all eyes will be on Hallandale, Florida from races 7 through 12.
 
The pool could easily rise over $7 million and some think it could approach $9 or $10 million.
 
The feature on Saturday is the $75,000 Sunshine Forever, which is the ninth race on the 12-race card. The race lost a marquee name as War of Will, last year’s Preakness Stakes (G1) winner will scratch according to his trainer Mark Casse.
 
It looks as if the colt will head to Santa Anita for the Shoemaker Mile (G1) which is scheduled for May 25. Racing is expected to return at Santa Anita next week.
 
I had War of Will as my fourth choice in the race, so the scratch won’t affect me much. I think El Tormenta could pull off the upset as the gelding is better than his 12th place finish in the Appleton (G3) last out, his first start off a 4 ½ month break.
 
The Jackpot 6 has no free squares, but with the .20 increment it makes it easy to go deep in at least a few races. A couple of horse I may lean toward heavily on my tickets will include Fast Scene in the seventh, I’ll Fight Dempsey in the 11th and Peppi the Hunter in the nightcap.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park.
 
Horseplayers can also stream all the horse racing action using the Watch TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
To purchase my Gulfstream Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Gulfstream Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

Gulfstream Park Race 1 Analysis - 5/9

GP Race 1 Md $12,500 (12:45 ET)
#5 Jack Beanstalk   6-1
#2 Mayito   9-5
#9 Traffic Trouble   7-2
#10 Sweet Giant   9-2
 
Analysis: Jack Beanstalk is back on turf here after a game third last out in the slop in a race taken off the turf. The gelding was beaten just a head and a neck and has now been the beaten favorite in each of his last three starts. Two back on turf he set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth going a mile. The Casse trainee drops another notch here in for a $12,500. Saez sticks for another go on this gelding, who is by Jack Milton out of a Roman Ruler mare that has dropped one dirt winner. Looks as if his price may be a bit better here.
 
Mayito tracked the early pace and finished gamely in a runner up finish last out against $16,000 foes, unable to catch the winner in the stretch. The winner came back to run fourth against $12,500 claimers in his next outing. The gelding has landed the runner up spot three times now in five starts and looks headed in the right direction since landing with the Joseph barn, who is back on track after going cold for a couple of weeks. The gelding drops into a softer spot and does not need to move forward much off his last effort to pick up his diploma in this spot.

Gulfstream Park Featured Race of the Day Analysis - 5/9

GP Race 9 The Sunshine Forever (4:59 ET)
#3 El Tormenta   12-1
#9 Social Paranoia   3-1
#11 Admission Office   5-2
#6 Halladay   4-1
 
Analysis: El Tormenta pulled off a shocker in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last September at 44-1. He followed that up with a sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) where he prompted the early pace and weakening to finish 4 ½ lengths back of the winner. Last out in his return race off the bench here in the Appleton (G3) he drew a tough spot and was away last. He rushed up to grab the lead as they headed into the back stretch and he was done by the far turn. It was his first start off a 4 ½ month break. The blinkers come off and he figures to be more settled here as he was in his big win at Woodbine. Looks capable of moving forward second off the bench and is going to be a generous price in this spot.
 
Social Paranoia came from last to first to win the Appleton in his first start off a 6 ½ month layoff. He graduated here last year, and he won just one of his next five starts but ran well in all, his win coming in the Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs. He earned a career top speed fig in his win last out and the extra half furlong here suits him. The colt will get some pace to run at as well. As good as Pletcher is off the bench his numbers do drop quite a bit with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff, hitting at just a 12% clip.
 
Admission Office earned a career top speed fig in his runner up finish in the Mac Diarmida (G2). The Lunch trainee was reserved near the back of the pack early, came with a good move and took over the lead but could not go with the talented Zulu Alpha late, beaten a length for the top spot while nearly four lengths clear of the third place finisher Sadler’s Joy.  He is now 0 for 7 in takes races, landing in the money in six of those outings. He is cutting back in distance here while drawing a tough post. His best puts him in the mix, but his price may end up on the light side.

Tampa Bay Downs Featured Race of the Day Analysis - 5/9

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Tampa Bay Downs:
 
TAM Race 7 Md Sp Wt (3:35 ET)
#9 Impressive Speed   8-1
#3 Expensive Style   5-2
#4 Dark Web   8-5
#2 Evidence   9-2
 
Analysis: Impressive Speed looks eligible to move forward after a good effort in his debut. The gelding was bumped coming out of the gate, stalked the early place, came up toward the inside splitting rivals to get into the hunt and then weakened to finish third in a nine horse field, sent off at 13-1. That effort came against $40,000 maiden claimers and he steps up in class, but he is going to be a decent price in this spot. The gelding is out of a Broad Brush mare that has dropped three other foals to race with a pair of winners. He should get a god trip from mid pack and if he moved forward, he can be in the hunt here at a decent price.
 
Expensive Style stalked the early pace, came with a five-wide move, and then weakened to finish fifth last out. He finished in the money in each of his first five starts including a tough nose loss three back here. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks like a good fit here. He was a cheap buy at $5,500, the first foal to race out of a Da Stoops mare.

Live Longshots - 5/9

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Gulfstream Park
R3: #9 Temperance   12-1
R3: #3 By His Grace   12-1
R5: #6 Nenita   12-1
R8: #8 Reservenotattained   8-1
R8: #4 War Act   10-1
R9: #3 El Tormenta   12-1
R10: #11 Shootin the Breeze   8-1
R10: #3 Sublime Appeal   12-1
R12: #10 Starship Apollo   8-1
R12: #9 Dexter Road   8-1
 
Good luck today!

We may be compensated by the company links provided on this page. Read more

Horses News