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Horse Racing

Horse Races Today: Saturday’s Belmont Park and Churchill Downs Analysis & Odds

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
The Triple Crown finally gets underway this afternoon, seven weeks past the first Saturday of May, and two weeks later than the day the Belmont Stakes was originally scheduled.
 
But who is complaining? While most sports are still in shutdown mode, horse racing has continued throughout the pandemic on a limited basis with no fans, all of us more than willing to wager from the comfort of home, and that is what we will be doing this afternoon as there will be no fans at Belmont Park this afternoon.
 
We lost several major players over the past few weeks including the Bob Baffert trained Nadal and Charlatan to injuries, and when the dust cleared, we have a field of 10 that will line up today, with an imposing favorite.
 
Tiz the Law comes into the Belmont off wins in the Holy Bull (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park and was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite. 
 
The colt’s trainer is Barclay Tagg, who is based in Maryland as I was for most of my adult life. I got a chance to watch him work up close on a daily basis and he is one of the most respected  trainers in the state.
 
Tagg trained Funny Cide, winner of the 2003 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and another couple of Triple Crown race wins this year with Tiz the Law would probably put him in racing’s Hall of Fame.
 
I will certainly be rooting for him and his colt, but my betting dollars will go elsewhere. I just can’t back him at what likely will be around even money. If he beats us, we have 11 other races on the Belmont Park card including five graded stakes to pad our bankroll.
 
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 11 strongest plays from Churchill Downs and Belmont Park.
 
If you plan on wagering on the Belmont Stakes, it is one of 12 on the card that gets underway on 11:45 ET. Post time for the Belmont Stakes is 5:42 ET on NBC, part of a three-hour telecast that starts at 3:00 ET.  You can stream the early action using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Park Race 1 Analysis - 6/20 (12:45 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 1 Md $75,000 (12:45 ET)
#10 Souper Energizer   8-1
#1 Conglomerate / 1a Traffic Pattern   7-2
#11 Turn of Events   9-2
#7 Holy Emperor   6-1
 
Analysis: Souper Energizer made his first start for a tag last out, setting the early fractions and was unable to hold off the winner late in a runner up finish at Gulfstream Park over good ground. He was eight lengths clear of the rest of the field. He returns a gelding off a three month break here for the Trombetta barn. He should be fit off works at Fair Hill and catches a field here he should be able to handle. He picks up Rosario and should be forwardly paced in this spot.
 
Conglomerate was a 4150,000 Ocala purchase, by Lemon Drop Kid out of the turf stakes winner Maddy's Heart ($253,039) who has drops three foals to race with one dirt winner to date. Entrymate Traffic Pattern is where Irad lands. He was a $170,000 Keeneland purchase. He is by Temple City out of a Grand Slam mare that has dropped one dirt winner. The barn hits at a 22% clip with first time starters. It is not a real deep group here and either of these looks capable of being in the mix here in their debuts. 
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

Churchill Downs Race 9 Analysis - 6/20 (5:01 p.m. ET)

CD Race 9 The Wise Dan G2 (5:01 ET)
#7 March to the Arch   5-1
#3 Factor This   8-5
#5 Aquaphobia   6-1
#9 Casa Creed   15-1
 
Analysis: March to the Arch did not fire when shipped to Santa Anita last out for the Shoemaker Mile (G1), fading to finish a well beaten 10th. The gelding went into that race off a good third in the Appleton (G3) at Gulfstream Park and three back was beaten just a nose and ahead when third in the Tampa Bay (G3). He won the Sunshine Millions Turf four back in his first start of the year which was off a 3 1/2-month break. This guy won this race last year at 10-1 and I am going to draw a line through his trip to the west coast and look for him to bounce back with a much better effort here.
 
Factor This took the field gate to wire to win the Muniz Memorial (G2) last out at Fair Grounds at nine furlongs. He now has back to back career top speed figs and catches a field here where he is the lone speed. He had lost five in a row going into his last pair and if he gets some pace pressure he may regress enough where our top pick can get by him late. 
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Park Race 9 Analysis - 6/20 (4:53 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 9 The Jaipur G1 (4:53 ET)
#2 Oleksandra   7-2
#4 Pure Sensation   5-2
#3 Texas Wedge   4-1
#5 Stubbins   3-1
 
Analysis: Oleksandra came off a 6 1/2-month layoff with a solid effort in the Monrovia (G2) at Santa Anita at 5 1/2 furlongs. The mare was off a beat slow, trailed the field and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot, beaten just a half-length and earning a career top speed fig. She has landed in the exacta in 9 of her 14 career starts, all on turf. She won the Buffalo Trace Franklin County (G3) two back at Keeneland with a good late rally. The extra half furlong here will come in handily as there is not an abundance of early speed in here and Rosario is going to need to keep her closer here. She is perfect in her two trips over the turf here. She looks capable of beating the boys here.
 
Pure Sensation won this race back in '16 and was third in '18. He makes his first start since running fifth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) at Santa Anita last fall which was contested at five furlongs. He earned triple digit Beyers in his three previous starts, not bad for an eight-year-old. The Clement barn is 20% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. A light work tab but this veteran has run well off the bench in the past. He is quick enough to be up front but with Irad aboard he may end up sitting just off the pace.
 
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R3: #5 Forever Changed   8-1
R4: #4 Mr. Kringle   10-1
R7: #3 Single Verse   8-1
R10: #10 Pneumatic   8-1
R11: #5 Argonne   12-1
R11: #7 Monarchs Glen   10-1
R12: #6 Kierkegaard   15-1 
 
Good luck today!

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