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Horse Racing

Sunday’s Picks from Belmont Park and Keeneland

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
It is closing day at both Belmont Park and Keeneland on Sunday, and after a three day break, we are back in action next Thursday with the opening of the Saratoga meeting.
 
Belmont Park closes today with an Empire 6 Pick 6 mandatory payout with a carryover of $477,409. The wager starts with the fourth race which has a post time of 2:09 ET.
 
The feature today is the $80,000 River Memories, a 1 1/2-mile turf marathon that drew a solid field of 11. The race wills scratch down to 10 as Tass (15-1) ran at Delaware Park yesterday.
 
It is a tough race and I ended up on the 3-1 morning line favorite Olympic Games, the Christophe Clement trainee who makes his second start since landing in the U.S.
 
We have a nine race card at Keeneland as the five day meet concludes.  Rushie came up short as my top pick in yesterday’s Blue Grass (G2) as he settled for third. We did end the day with Speedy Solution wiring the field in the nightcap as my top pick, paying a hefty $26.40.
 
The closing day feature is the $100,000 Transylvania (G3) for three-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on turf. A field of 11 entered with Field Pass the 2-1 morning line favorite.
 
I think we can beat him for the top spot and both Vintage Print (4-1) and Fancy Liquor (4-1) deserve a look.
 
You can catch the action from Belmont Park from 2:00 to 5:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action from Keeneland on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
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Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, Keeneland this week and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

Belmont Race 1 Analysis - 7/12 (12:30 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 1 OClm $62,500N2X (12:30 ET)
#5 Sadlie Lady   5-2
#4 Into Chocolate   8-5
#1 Fair Regis   2-1
#3 Gypsy Janie   5-1
 
Analysis: Sadie Lady came off a 3 1/2 month break last out at this level, setting the early fractions while down along a dead rail and weakening in the stretch to finish sixth, beaten three lengths for the top spot. She won her three previous outings, beating Alw-1 foes two back and state bred Alw-2 optional claimers three back. The filly owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and she is going to be tough to catch in this spot if Kendrick can shake loose early.
 
Into Chocolate makes her first start off a five month break here for the Mott barn. She made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Minaret last out at Tampa Bay Downs. The winner of that race was Lady's Island, who won her next two starts including the Florida bred Music Romance in her most recent start at Gulfstream Park. She has worked well for her return here for Mott who is 17% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day break. She passed her first allowance condition at Santa Anita two back at 6 1/2 furlongs. She fits well here but our top pick is going to get the jump on her early.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

Belmont Race 8 Analysis - 7/12 (4:23 p.m. ET)

BEL Race 8 The River Memories (4:23 ET)
#6 Olympic Games   3-1
#4 Lemon Zip   6-1
#9 Wegetsdamunnys   7-2
#1 Dyna Passer   5-1
 
Analysis: Olympic Games made her U.S. debut last out in the Treasure Coast at Gulfstream park going nine furlongs off a seven-month layoff. The filly trailed the field early and came with a good late rally to just miss by a neck. She won her first three starts in France including her debut at 1 3/16 miles. She looks as if she will be able to handle the extra ground here. Irad picks up the call here for the Clement barn. She looks like the logical one to beat in this spot.
 
Lemon Zip was outrun last out in The Very One (G3) at 1 3/16 miles back in February. She won 4 of 9 last year and missed winning the Japan Turf Cup at Laurel Park last September at 1 1/2 miles by just a head. She was running for a $12,500 tag back in '18 but has thrived in the care of Saville. She is better than she showed last out and the barn is capable of winning off the bench off works at Fair Hill. She figures to bounce back with a much better effort here. She has landed in the exacta in 4 of her 5 trips at 1 1/2 miles.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

Keeneland Race 7 Analysis - 7/12 (4:24 p.m. ET)

KEE Race 7 The Transylvania G3 (4:24 ET)
#5 Vintage Print   4-1
#7 Fancy Liquor   4-1
#1 Field Pass   2-1
#11 Bama Breeze   5-1
 
Analysis: Vintage Point came off a 3 1/2-month break with a sharp win versus Alw-1 company at Churchill Downs in his second career start on turf. He broke his maiden two back at Gulfstream Park over good ground in his first trip on turf. He did not beat a very tough group last out but did it impressively and looks as if he still has plenty of upside. The Brown barn won this race in 2015 and 2018. This colt was a $1 million Keeneland purchase, by Curlin out of the stakes winner Molly Morgan ($882,159) ho was best on dirt, this her first foal to race. She looks capable of moving forward off her last effort for Brown who is 29% winners with runners making their second start off a 45-180-day break.
 
Fancy Liquor is one of two Maker runners in here and this guy figures to be the higher price of the duo. Last out off nearly a three month break he set the early fractions and could not hold off our top pick, beaten a half-length. The colt graduated on good ground in his debut back in February at Gulfstream Park and then was third behind his stablemate Field Pass in his first start against winners in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on polytrack. A couple of good works at Trackside and he looks capable of moving forward off his last effort.
 
Field Pass took the field gate to wire to win the Audubon last out at Churchill Downs going nine furlongs, his fourth win in 10 career starts. he is 3 for 8 on turf including winning the Dania Beach at Gulfstream Park on good ground back in February. He draws the rail and picks up Santana and it will be interesting to see if this guy gets sent as his stablemate has some early zip as well. He fits well here but our top two likely are going to offer a bit more value for the top spot.

Live Longshots

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Belmont Park
R2: #2 Bustin Bieber   10-1
R3: #8 She’s a Lumberjane   12-1
R4: #7 Sidd Finch   10-1
R5: #2 Bourbon Mission   8-1
R6: #10 Violent Point   8-1
R9: #6 High School Crush   8-1
R9: #4 Devils Rendezvous   12-1
 
Good luck today!

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