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Horse Racing

Thursday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
We started of the week in pretty good shape with four winners on top at Saratoga yesterday including the final two races on the card, Breaking the Rules at $8.70 and Zero to Sixty at $16.20 combining for a $62.50 late double.

My Live Longshot list included Whistlinginthedark in the second winning and paying $49.40, Tradable running second in the third race at 26-1, Ghoul running third I the seventh bet down to 7-1. Six Percent running third in the eighth at 10-1 and Zero to Sixty winning the finale at $16.20.

The late Pick 5 featured three of my top picks, but you had to go four deep to find the other two winners, the $.50 payout coming in at $4,113.25. It was three A’s, a B, and a C on my report.

Thursday’s feature is a good one, a field of nine going in the $85,000 John Morrissey Handicap for New York breds.

As you can see below, I landed on longshot My Boy Tate at 12-1 but any of five could win the race. My top pick tossed in a dud in his last outing but has back form and is a six-time winner in 15 career starts including a pair of stakes wins against state breds back in 2018.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Thursday click here .
 
You can catch the action from Saratoga from 1:00 to 6:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

Saratoga Race 1 Analysis
7/30 (1:10 p.m. ET) 

SAR Race 1 Clm $40,000 (1:10 ET)
#4 Sugar Fix 5-2
#3 Lookin Dynamic 10-1
#6 Tonal Vision 2-1
#7 Little Red Frog 9-2

Analysis: Sugar Fix pressed the early pace and got clear heading for home and held on to beat Alw-1 foes by a half-length last out at Delaware Park against Alw-1 foes. The third and fifth place finishers came out of that race to win next out. She now lands with Grusmark who is based at Finger Lakes. Former trainer Allard claimed her for 20,000 and she won back to back races, and this looks like a good spot here taking on $40,000 foes. She looks capable of making it four in a row and 7 of her last 8 outings (getting DQ'd from one of those wins).

Lookin Dynamic makes her first start since March where she beat $50,000 foes at Laurel park going a mile on the main track. She returns off a four month break here for the Trombetta barn that is 15% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180-day layoff. This is her first go on turf since her debut where she checked in fourth going 5 1/2 furlongs. Sher is out of a Deputy Minister mare that has dropped one turf winner. Johnny V. takes the call and the 10-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

Saratoga Race 9 Analysis
7/30 (5:46 p.m. ET) 

SAR Race 9 The John Morrissey Hcp (5:46 ET)
#8 My Boy Tate 12-1
#4 Amundson 2-1
#9 Celtic Chaos 12-1
#6 Funny Guy 5-2

Analysis: My Boy Tate came back off a four month break last out in the state bred Commentator and after stalking the early pace he faded to finish a well beaten eighth at 23-1. The gelding put in a good effort two back in the state bred Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct going six furlongs. He made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot as the beaten favorite behind the favorite in here. After breaking his maiden here back in '17 he reeled off four straight wins at Aqueduct. He is better than he showed last out and put in a good breeze on July 26. Looking for him to bounce back with a much better effort and the cut back to seven panels suits him.

Amundson is back with state breds after pressing the early pace and unable to match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish against Alw-2 optional claimers. His last start against state breds came in the Hollie Hughes three back where he took the field gate to wire. The gelding owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and looks to be a danger of taking this field gate to wire. He makes his third start of his current form cycle and Ortiz is off of our top pick to stick with this guy.

Celtic Chaos makes his first starts since January for the Cox barn that is 18% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. He won this race last year and has won 3 of his 8 trips over the Spa main track. The seven-year-old has been working well in the mornings for his return and is going to be a generous price in this spot.

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #3 Lookin Dynamic 10-1
R2: #6 Majestic View 8-1
R3: #5 Tla 8-1
R4: #4 Kefaliani 8-1
R5: #9 Catch a Cab 8-1
R6: #4 Spring to Summer 8-1
R6: #9 Maliceinthepalace 12-1
R7: #7 Big Boy Mo 8-1
R8: #7 Love and Love 10-1
R9: #5 My Boy Tate 12-1
R9: #9 Celtic Chaos 12-1

Good luck today!

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