Aug 06, 2020
Friday's Picks from Saratoga
Seven foes will line up on Saturday to take on Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz the Law in the $1 million Travers (G1) at Saratoga.
Tiz the Law was installed as the even money favorite on the morning line as he makes his final tune up for the Kentucky Derby (G1) which will be held on September 5.
For the rest of the field it is a chance to stamp a ticket to Louisville. The race is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race with 100-40-20-10 points awarded to the top four finishers.
Tiz the Law is atop the leader board for the Kentucky Derby with 272 points and has locked in a starting spot in the 20-horse gate.
The Travers will serve as a rich prep for the Barclay Tagg trainee, who has won five of his six career starts and $1,480,000.
His main foe on Saturday will by the Bob Baffert trained Uncle Chuck (5-2) who won the Los Alamitos Derby (G3) in his last outing, which was just his second career start.
The colt earned 20 points for the win at Los Al which puts him 22nd in the Derby points standings. He needs points tomorrow to earn his trip to Churchill Downs next month.
I will have my analysis and selections for the race in Saturday's column.
Before we get to Travers Day, we have a competitive stake this afternoon in the $150,000 Saratoga Special (G2) a race that could produce a few contenders for next year’s Kentucky Derby.
A field of 11 entered but trainer Wesley Ward will scratch Roderick and send him to Del Mar for Saturday’s Best Pal (G2).
Trainer Steve Asmussen has won the Saratoga Special four times and could make it five today as he sends out to major contenders in Cazadero (5-2) and Jackie’s Warrior (7-2).
Cazadero won the Bashford Manor (G3) at Churchill Downs in his last outing and is the lone stakes winner in the field. Jackie’s Warrior was an impressive maiden winner in his debut at Churchill Downs on June 19.
To purchase my Saratoga Report for Friday click here .
You can catch the action from Saratoga from 1:00 to 6:30 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
Saratoga Race 1 Analysis - 8/7 (1:10 p.m. ET)
SAR Race 1 Md $40,000 (1:10 ET)
#7 Petrus 6-1
#8 Selfmade 7-2
#1 Klickitat 1-1
#6 Spiritual King 9-2
Analysis: Petrus adds blinkers here for the Dickinson barn as the gelding makes his third career start and we have liked this guy in his first two starts but he failed us, checking in fourth and fifth. With the hood added hopefully he will be closer to the pace here. He made a mild late run in his debut and last out just finished evenly while beaten 9 1/2 lengths. He is out of the turf stakes winner Cellars Shiraz ($728,410) who ash dropped six winners and five have won on turf including stakes winner Inimitable Romanee ($478,439). It is not a real tough looking group of state breds here and the 6-1 morning line looks fair.
Selfmade pressed the early pace and could not match strides with the winner late in a runner up finish for this tag last out. It was his first go off a six-month layoff and his first after landing with Mott. He did not show much in two arts on dirt last year for Englehart. The class drop and surface switch woke this guy. The $220,000 Spa purchase is out of a Giant's Causeway mare that has dropped one other foal to race, no winners to date. The Hall of Fame trainer is 21% winners with runners making their second start off a +180-day layoff. This colt looks as if he still has some upside.
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
Saratoga Race 9 Analysis - 8/7 (5:46 p.m. ET)
SAR Race 9 The Saratoga Special G2 (5:46 ET)
#6 Cazadero 5-2
#9 Therideofalifetime 4-1
#10 Jackie's Warrior 7-2
#7 Momos 6-1
Analysis: Cazadero is the lone stakes winner in the field, taking the Bashford Manor (G3) last out at Churchill Downs in his second career start. The colt tracked the early pace and finished strongly to win by 4 ¾ lengths. Two runners he beat have come back to run, the best effort a runner up finish by Gatsby in the Florida Stallion Series Dr. Fager at Gulfstream Park on Aug. 1. Our top pick broke his maiden in his debut two back at Churchill Downs going five furlongs, drawing away to win by 8 ¾ lengths.
Asmussen has been very live with his juveniles this year, winning with 18 of 56 starters (32%). The trainer has won this race four times, the most recent with Copper Bullet in 2017. The colt owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a perfect trip sitting just off the pace. The colt is out of the stakes winner Wild Gams ($1.1 million) who has dropped five other winners including stakes winner Mt. Brave ($160,606) and stakes placed Almost Famous ($180,688).
Therideofalifetime ships in from Keeneland where he took the field gate to wire in his second career start to break his maiden by 8 ¼ lengths as the betting favorite. In his debut two back he tracked the early pace and could not get by Jackie’s Warrior in the stretch in a runner up finish at 9-1. The colt earned the top last out speed fig in his maiden score. Three he beat have come back to run back with one next out winner, Little Alex graduating at Indiana Grand in his next outing on July 22. The Ignacio Correas trainee is out of the stakes winner Cosmic Evolution ($164,810), her first foal to race. The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and if he is able to get clear he could prove tough to catch.
Jackie’s Warrior was a good looking maiden winner in his debut at Churchill Downs going five furlongs. The effort was flattered when our second choice came out of that race to graduate next out. The colt dueled for the early lead, took back on the far turn and came again at the 5/!6’s and pulled away late. He earned a solid number for his win and sports five works since landing at Saratoga. The $95,000 Keeneland purchase is by Maclean’s Music out of a A.P. Five Hundred mare that has dropped one other winner. Santana sticks with our top pick, no real surprise, and Rosario lands on this colt. He looks capable of moving forward off his promising debut.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R3: #8 Cape Cod Diva 12-1
R4: #4 Kemba 10-1
R6: #9 Invincible Gal 8-1
R8: #7 Jen’s Battle 8-1
R10: #6 Yellen 8-1
Good luck today!