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Horse Racing

Thursday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
We have a nine race card on tap at Saratoga on Thursday with the opener a steeplechase race, so the early Pick 5 starts with the second race.
 
The feature today is the $85,000 Tale of the Cat, a restricted race for non-winners of a graded stake and we have a compact field of five going to the post in the six-furlong test.
 
Stan the Man is the 7-5 morning line favorite. The John Terranova trainee was a good second in the True North (G2) on June 27 in his last start and drops into an easier spot.
 
"We didn't have too many options and we didn't want to jump in the deep end again with him," Terranova said. "We also wanted to give him a little bit of space between starts. He'll fit into the Tale of the Cat nicely because it's a restricted stake with how it's written. He looks good to go right now."
 
He looks tough but I landed on My Boy Tate again, the Michelle Nevin trainee the 2-1 second choice in the race. He was my top pick in the New York bred John Morrissey last out at 13-1 and outran his odds in a third-place finish.
 
There are better wagering races on the card, and we have a great weekend to look forward to. We have three Breeders’ Cup Challenge ‘Win and You’re In” races coming up on Saturday.
 
Maximum Security is the headliner in the $500,000 Pacific Classic (G1) at Del Mar. The winner earns a starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland on Nov. 7.
 
Also on the card at Del Mar on Saturday is the $200,000 Del Mar Handicap (G2) which is a prep for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).
 
At Saratoga on Saturday a field of nine line up in the $400,00 Fourstardave Handicap (G1) with the winner stamping a ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1).
 
You can catch the action from Saratoga from 1:00 to 5:30 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 
 
To purchase my Saratoga Report for Thursday click here.
 
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report which will include all the major Road to the Kentucky Derby prep races.
 
Here is the second race (the opener is a jump race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start: 

SARATOGA RACE 2 ANALYSIS (1:21 P.M. ET)

SAR Race 2 Md Sp Wt
#6 Thankful   9-5
#5 Pago Querido   6-1
#1 Simply Sweet   8-5
#2 Tonal Verse   6-1
 
Analysis: Thankful makes her third career start here for the Pletcher barn. She as ninth in her debut going long on turf and then improved on the main track at Belmont Park last out in a runner up finish behind a six-length winner. Only one runner has come out of that race to run back, fourth place finisher Love On the Run a next out grad on Aug. 5. A bullet breeze on the morning tab since her last outing and she does not need to move forward much off her last effort to get the job done here. She is bred to get nine furlongs, by American Pharoah out of a Cat Thief mare that has dropped five winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Behind de Buy ($160,204).
 
Pago Querido tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out in her debut going six furlongs on the main track at Delaware Park. She took some play and should move forward with more ground. Stidham is 23% winners with second out maidens. She is by Competitive Edge out of a Bellamy Road mare that has dropped one winner. Ortiz picks up the call and the 6-1 morning line looks fair enough to toss her in the mix in this spot.
 
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga: 

SARATOGA RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:12 P.M. ET)

SAR Race 7 The Tale of the Cat
#4 My Boy Tate   2-1
#2 Stan the Man   7-5
#1 T Loves a Fight   3-1
#5 Binkster   9-2
               
Analysis: My Boy Tate was our to pick in the state bred Morrissey last out at 13-1 and he did bounce back with a solid effort in a third-place finish on the cut back from a mile. he now cuts back to six furlongs for his third start of his current form cycle. He looks back on track after getting outrun at a mile two back in the state bred Commentator. The gelding has run well at six furlongs and owns a solid pace profile throughout with the edge in late pace numbers.
 
Stan the Man prompted the early pace, got to the front and then cold not match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish in the True North (G2) last out in a solid effort. He bounced back after getting beaten double digit lengths in his two previous starts going longer. He makes his second start off a 3 1/2-month break for Terranova who takes the blinkers off. This guy earned two triple digit Beyers last year going a one turn mile and looks tough in this spot as he drops in with restricted company.
 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
 
Saratoga
R1: #3 Redicean   10-1
R4: #1 Yousaidhello   15-1
R6: #2 Fure Book   8-1
R9: #6 Foolish Ghost   8-1
 
Good luck today!

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