Wednesday’s Picks from Saratoga

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

We have just 11 days of racing left at Saratoga and we will have a nine-day break until racing at Belmont Park kicks off on Thursday, Sept. 17. I might even get in my once a decade vacation during the break.

Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher are tied in the trainer standings through Sunday, each with 22 wins. Christophe Clement, who got off to such a quick start at the meeting is in third with 18 winners and Mike Maker has 16.

Mark Casse is still not off the duck yet, zero for 31. Randi Persaud is not far behind at 0 for 26 at the meet.

Irad Ortiz Jr. has opened up a lead over his brother Jose in the jockey standings at 44 to 42. Joel Rosario is not out of it yet, currently with 37 winners. Luis Saez is next in line with 24.

It looks as if the Ortiz brothers and Rosario are skipping a trip to Churchill Downs and will compete at the Spa until closing day, which is Labor Day.

The fields in the stakes races have been coming up light, but that is not the case today. A field of 10 go in the $85,000 Mahony, a 5 ½ furlong turf sprint.

Quik Call winner Turned Aside is the 2-1 morning line favorite for trainer Linda Rice. As you can see below I landed on Maven, the second choice at 5-2 on the morning line. The Wesley Ward trainee has won three of her four career starts including the Prix de Bois (G3) at Chantilly in France last June.

You can catch the action from Saratoga from 1:00 to 5:30 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players. 

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Wednesday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday as well as my Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day reports.

Here is the second race (the opener is a jump race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start: 

SARATOGA RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:21 P.M. ET)

• SAR Race 2 Md Sp Wt
• #2 Bella Domenica   8-1
• #6 Impazible Donna   7-2
• #1 Munnings Muse   6-5
• #5 Snicket   5-2

Analysis: Bella Domenica stalked the early pace while saving ground and could not match strides late with the winner in a good runner up finish last out at 16-1. Two back she caught a sloppy track where she made a mild late run to finish third. The winner of that race was Jewel of Arabia, one of four to exit that race to win next out. She took a state bred Alw-1 race here on July 31. Her two main rivals in here are coming off lengthy layoffs and this gal is going to be a decent price if we catch most of her 8-1 morning line.

Impazible Donna makes her first start since her debut last July here. She was sent off as the 5-2 favorite in a field of nine and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot. Decent looking works on the morning tab for the Levine barn that is 6% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. This is not a real tough looking spot for her return. She is out of a Silver Deputy mare that has dropped four other foals to race with a pair of winners.

SARATOGA RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:12 P.M. ET)

• SAR Race 7 The Mahony
• #8 Maven   5-2
• #1 Buy Land and See   8-1
• #10 Turned Aside   2-1
• #9 Jack and Noah   4-1

Analysis: Maven has won three of his four career start including the Prix de Bois at Chantilly (G3) last June in his first start on turf. He then showed speed and faded to finish 10th in the Molecomb Stakes (G3) at Goodwood and went on the sidelines for a year. He returned against non-conditioned allowance foes at Keeneland over good ground on July 8 where he took the field gate to wire to win by 2 ¾ lengths and did it rather easily. The colt earned solid early and mid pace numbers in that effort and should move forward second off the bench for Ward. His last start was his first start with lasix and he picks up Irad.

Buy Land and See is cutting back from 7 ½ furlongs where last out at Philly he came back off a nine-month layoff to beat Pennsylvania bred allowance foes by 5 ¼ lengths. His lone turf sprint came in his debut here last summer where he made a mild late bid to finish third. He then graduated at Philly at 7 ½ furlongs and won the one mile Awad at Belmont Park over good ground before hitting the bench. Klesaris shipped the colt to Florida after his Awad win and he became sick. He draws the rail and when he made his debut, he drew the rail and was off last. He has enough tactical speed to be able to handle the cut back to 5 ½ furlongs. Decent value if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line and just needs an alert break to be in the mix.

Turned Aside is the 2-1 morning line favorite. He is coming in off a career best effort winning the Quik Call (G3) here on July 24. The colt tracked the early pace after breaking sharply, took over the lead without a lot of effort and went on to win by 1 ¾ lengths in a sharp effort over three foes he faces again today. He came back off a 6 ½ month break two back to run a good second in the Sir Cat at Belmont Park going six furlongs. He fits well here as he makes his third start of his current form cycle but our top two in here likely are going to offer a bit more value for the top spot. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Saratoga

• R1: #5 Tomgarrow   8-1
• R2: #2 Bella Domenica   8-1
• R4: #6 Bold Article   8-1
• R4: #1 Krubera   10-1
• R5: #7 Giggle Factory   20-1
• R6: #6 Left Leaning Lucy   15-1
• R7: #1 Buy Land and See   8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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