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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM

Thursday's Picks from Saratoga

The Kentucky Derby is now just over a week away, and Churchill Downs announced yesterday that the track administered 1,823 Covid-19 tests to its staff, vendors and horsemen from Wednesday, Aug. 19 through Monday, Aug. 24.

Of those tests 47 have come back positive. Testing will continue as horseman and jockeys come into Louisville for the weeklong meeting.

There will be no spectators allowed throughout the week including on Oaks Day which is Friday and Derby Day which is Saturday.

Churchill Downs also has to worry about the protests in Louisville, one that brought protesters to the racetrack. There are several groups calling on Churhcill Downs to cancel the race.  Protesting the death of Breonna Taylor, there were over 60 arrests near Churchill Downs on Tuesday.

With the police involved shooting in Wisconsin of Jacob Blake, who was shot seven times in the back by a Kenosha police officer, the protests figure to only get larger as we go into next week.

We saw the NBA cancel their playoff games last night and two MLB games were also postponed.

With the Kentucky Derby one of the biggest sporting events not only in Kentucky but the U.S., it appears at least four groups plan on focusing their attention on disrupting this year’s Run for the Roses.

The main goal of the groups is to have indictments brought against the police officers that shot Taylor. That does not seem likely by next weekend.

Let’s head out to Saratoga where today’s featured race is the $85,000 Smart N Fancy which drew a field of eight going 5 ½ furlongs on turf.

You can catch the action from Saratoga from 1:00 to 5:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Saratoga Report for Thursday click here

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday as well as my Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day reports.

Here is the opener from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start: 

SARATOGA RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:10 P.M. ET) 

  • SAR Race 1 Md $25,000
  • #2 Posse Can Disco   5-1
  • #6 Imperio D   2-1
  • #7 Lady's Boy   5-1
  • #1 Majestic View    4-1

 Analysis: Posse Can Disco debuts for the Gullo barn that is 13% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. This gelding has a win early type pedigree, by Posse out of a Disco Rico mare, her first foal to race. Solid works on the morning tab and he likely will not mind if we get a little rain today.

Imperio D set the early fractions and weakened to finish third last out and has now come up short 10 times. he has landed in the money in five of those outings. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and the cut back to six furlongs should sit him. He has not been on a wet track, by Front Giant out of a Touch Gold mare that has dropped six winners, he should be able to handle it. He catches a pretty slow group here for the RRod barn.

SARATOGA RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:41 P.M. ET)

  • SAR Race 7 The Smart N Fancy
  • #1 Rose Flower   4-1
  • #2 Saratoga Treasure   10-1
  • #6 Introduced   3-1
  • #4 A Great Time   9-2

Analysis: Rose Flower caught a tough spot for her return in the Intercontinental (G3) where she ran into Newspaperofrecord, who rolled to a four-length win and came back to win the Just a Game (G1) in her next outing. The fourth-place finisher Viadera also won next out, taking the restricted De La Rose in her next start. The Clement trainee now returns off a 2 1/2-month break and she has handle ground with some give to it which we likely see today. She has caught less than firm ground in each of her four starts including her win versus Alw-2 optional claimers. She looks like a good fit in this spot.

Saratoga Treasure was forced in coming out of the gate and was not a threat in a 10th place finish in the Caress last out at 45-1. Two back at Belmont Park she came with a mild five wide bid to finish third in the state bred Hessonite. She won the Autumn Days on yielding ground back at Aqueduct last December. A cleaner break and some pace and this gal can come running late at a decent price.  

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Saratoga

  • R4: #1 Corkman / 1a Bubba Chuck   8-1
  • R5: #7 Banana Thief   8-1
  • R6: #9 Bella Rose   8-1
  • R7: #2 Saratoga Treasure   10-1
  • R8: #4 Will Sing for Wine   8-1
  • R9: #7 Jades Jelly   8-1

 
Good luck today!


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