Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
Wednesday's Picks from Saratoga
Derby Week is here, and it did not start out well for the connections of Art Collector, one of the major contenders who was not entered into the Kentucky Derby.
The colt developed a minor foot issue and will miss the race. The colt was coming into the race off victories in the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland and the Ellis Park Derby and would have been the second or third choice in the betting.
Churchill Downs purchased a fancy new starting gate that accommodates 20 starters, but only 18 will go on Saturday which this year is the second jewel of the Triple Crown.
The major players all drew outside posts including Tiz the Law, who drew the 17 post and was installed as the 3-5 morning line favorite.
The Barclay Tagg trainee is perfect in four starts this year and won the Belmont Stakes (G1) followed by the Travers (G1). He likely will be the shortest priced Derby favorite in decades.
Just to his inside is Honor A.P., the second choice on the morning line at 5-1. The John Shirreffs trainee won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on June 6 but lost his last start, a runner up finish to Thousand Words in the Shared Belief at Del Mar.
Drawing the far outside post is the Bob Baffert trained Authentic (8-1), the third choice on the morning line. The colt won the Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park in his last start on July 18.
It is going to be an incredibly busy week with Saratoga running until Monday. Over the next six days I will be handicapping about 90 races. There are 13 races carded for Oaks Day on Friday at Churchill Downs and 14 on Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Field
1. Finnick the Fierce, Martin Garcia, 50-1
2. Max Player, Ricardo Santana Jr., 30-1
3. Enforceable, Adam Beschizza, 30-1
4. Storm the Court, Julien Leparoux, 50-1
5. Major Fed, James Graham, 50-1
6. King Guillermo, Samy Camacho, 20-1
7. Money Moves, Javier Castellano, 30-1
8. South Bend, Tyler Gaffalione, 50-1
9. Mr. Big News, Gabriel Saez, 50-1
10. Thousand Words, Florent Geroux, 15-1
11. Necker Island, Miguel Mena, 50-1
12. Sole Volante, Luca Panici, 30-1
13. Attachment Rate, Joe Talamo, 50-1
14. Winning Impression, Joe Rocco Jr., 50-1
15. Ny Traffic, Paco Lopez, 20-1
16. Honor A. P., Mike Smith, 5-1
17. Tiz the Law, Manny Franco, 3-5
18. Authentic, John Velazquez, 8-1
You can catch the action from Saratoga today from 1:00 to 6:00 ET on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. he horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.
To purchase my Saratoga best bet for Wednesday click here.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Saratoga Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday as well as my Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day reports.
Here is the second race (the opener is a steeplechase race) from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SARATOGA RACE 2 ANALYSIS (1:18 P.M. ET)
SAR Race 2 Md $40,000N2L
#6 Hey It's Tati 2-1
#5 Madam Deputy 7-5
#2 Buffet 3-1
#4 Empress Luciana 12-1
Analysis: Hey It's Tati adds blinkers and switches back to the main track here for her third career start. She prompted the early pace and grabbed the lead heading for home, battling on gamely to come up just a half-length short at 22-1. The barn does not win first out very often. Second out she switched to turf after tracking the early pace she weakened to finish sixth. She drops back in for a tag here. She is out of a stakes placed mass Media mare that has dropped three other foals to race with a pair of winners. Ortiz takes over and she likely will appreciate the surface switch back to the main track.
Madam Deputy stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish third in her debut, sent off at 4-1 in a field of nine. She returns with blinkers added as she makes her first start for the RRod barn that took this gal off of Cox. The new barn is 19% winners first off the claim. She catches a pretty soft spot here. She is out of a Deputy Minister mare that ash dropped six winners, top earner Grade 2 winner Teeth of the Dog ($414,950).
SARATOGA RACE 9 ANALYSIS (5:06 P.M. ET)
SAR Race 9 The With Anticipation G3
#2 American Monarch 7-5
#1 Blame the Booze 9-2
#3 Zippy Baby 6-1
#4 Winfromwithin 4-1
Analysis: American Monarch was a good looking maiden winner in his debut and earned the top last out speed fig. Sent off at 7-1 in a field of 10 he tracked the early pace and finished gamely to win by a half-length. None of the foes he beat have come back to race yet. The colt is by American Pharoah out of a stakes placed Giant's Causeway mare, her first foal to race. He has come back with a couple of good works since his last outing for the Mott barn.
Blame the Booze took the field gate to wire to break his maiden in the mud over a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. Since his maiden breaker he has worked on turf four times including a bullet work around the dogs o the Oklahoma training track on Aug. 28. The barn is 4 for 16 with two-year-old at the meet including winning the Skidmore on turf with Golden Pal on Aug. 21.
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #2 cracker Factory 12-1
R2: #4 Empress Luciana 12-1
R3: #5 Breithorn 8-1
R6: #4 Doll 10-1
R10: #11 K.K. Ichikawa 10-1
Good luck today!