Sunday’s Picks from Belmont Park and Keeneland

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Swiss Skydiver pulled off the upset in an exciting edition of the $1 million Preakness Stakes (G1) yesterday, beating the boys in a game effort.

The Ken McPeek trainee was taking on the boys for the second time and was picking up veteran jockey Robby Albarado for the first time. The jockey may have made the difference.

Albarado tracked the early pace while saving  ground, made a bold move splitting rivals, got to the favorite Authentic with a half mile to go and out-gamed the Kentucky Derby winner to the wire to win by a neck.

She became the sixth filly to win the Preakness, the first since Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

She was my second choice and paid a generous $25.40 and along with my top pick Authentic the $2 exacta came back at $75.60.

So, the 2020 Triple Crown is in the books and we had three different winners. Tiz the Law won the Belmont Stakes.

Now we have five weeks until the Breeders’ Cup, and it will be interesting to see if McPeek wants to take on the boys again in the Breeders’ Cup Classic or sticks to the Distaff.

We have a big day at Keeneland today with three Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” races and I include the trio of races in today’s Best Plays Report.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park today from 12:30 to 6:00 ET on FS2.  In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Belmont Park and Keeneland.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start: 

BELMONT PARK RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:50 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #2 Munnings Muse   5-1
• #1 Wasp   3-1
• #7 Impazible Donna   9-5
• #5 Misty Taste   8-1               

Analysis: Munnings Muse set the early fractions and weakened in the stretch to finish fifth last out in her first start off a 14-month layoff. She took some play, sent off as the favorite in a five-horse field. She now lands with former Pletcher assistant De Paz. She showed some promise in her debut last year with a runner up finish here going five furlongs. The barn is 19% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and looks capable of moving forward second off the bench and with the barn switch.

Wasp debuts for the Pletcher barn that is 20% winners first with first timers. The $350,000 Ocala purchase is by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah out of a Distorted Hume mare that has dropped one foals to race, 2 for 4 Magic Fairy ($71,365) who was a debut winner. Solid works on the morning tab and she looks ready to go at first asking. 

BELMONT PARK RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:12 P.M. ET)

Race 7 The Miss Grillo G2

• #8 Plum Ali   5-2
• #6 Freedomofthepress   6-1
• #1 Lovestruck   7-2
• #9 Editor At Large   5-1

Analysis: Plum Ali was a god looking maiden winner in her debut for the Clement barn. She was entered in the PG Johnson at the Spa on Sept. 3 but when the turf came up soft Clement elected to send her to Kentucky Downs where she won the Juvenile Fillies going a mile on firm turf. She overcame a tardy start in that outing and drew clear in the stretch to win by 2 3/4 lengths. She is one of just two in here with stakes experience and she looks as if she still has some upside. Clement is off to a good start at the meeting landing 14 of his first 25 starters in the exacta after having a solid Spa meet.

Freedomofthepress is one of two in here sent out by the Brown barn that has dominated this race, winning seven of the last eight editions. This filly put in a good effort in her debut, stalking the early pace while saving ground and making a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot behind Lovestruck. It was the quick by far of the two maiden races run at the distance that day. This gal was a $170,000 Keeneland purchase, by Mshawish out of an Indian Charlie mare, her first foal to race. She figures to move forward for a trainer that is 36% winners with second out maidens.

Lovestruck had to steady coming out of the gate as a foe came in on her, tracked the early pace while eager along the inside, angled to the outside and finished strongly to win by a length at 10-1. The filly is out of a Mr. Prospector mare that has dropped three stakes winners including $1.3 million earner Scat Daddy. Mott usually moves them forward with a race under their belt. 

KEENELAND RACE 9 ANALYSIS (5:10 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Bourbon G2

• #7 Blame the Booze   8-1
• #10 Mutasaabeq   3-1
• #12 Spyglass   12-1
• #4 Into the Sunrise   7-2

Analysis: Blame the Booze makes his first start on turf after his first two starts came in races washed off the grass. The gelding took the field gate to wire to break his maiden in his debut in the mud at Belmont Park. He then went in the With Anticipation which got moved to the main track. In the slop he set the early fractions and could not hold off the winner in a runner up finish. He is by Blame out of a Discreet Cat mare, her first foal to race. Among his works was a bullet drill at the Spa on turf and he is in good hands with the ward barn that is 19% winners with runners making their first start on turf. Looks as if this guy is going to be a decent price in this spot.

Mutasaabeq is also making his first start on turf. The Pletcher trainee was a good looking maiden winner in his debut and then tracked the early pace and weakened to finish third in the Hopeful (G1) at seven furlongs. He has a decent turf pedigree, by Into Mischief out of a Scat Daddy mare, her first foal to race. The barn is 17% winners moving runners from dirt to turf. He sports two works on turf since his last effort and Pletcher saw enough to ship him here.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Belmont Park

• R1: #5 Misty Taste   8-1
• R3: #1 Jennemily   8-1
• R4: #10 Siding Spring   8-1
• R5: #6 Macho Jack   12-1
• R9: #4 Wet Your Whistle   10-1
• R9: #7 Fog of War   10-1
• R10: #4 Iwo Jima   8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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