Saturday’s Picks from Belmont, Keeneland

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

In addition to four Breeders’ Cup Challenge, “Win, and You’re In” races at Belmont Park this afternoon, we have a pair of stakes at Keeneland that offer good betting opportunities.

The $200,000 Fayette (G2) drew a field of 10 that will go 1 1/8 miles on the main track. The Dale Romans trained Mr Freeze is the 3-1 morning-line favorite.

The five-year-old has lost three in a row since winning the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) back in February. He earned his fourth triple-digit Beyer in five starts in that victory. He set the early fractions and tired to finish sixth last out in the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill Downs.

Perhaps the extra ground here will suit him, but there are a couple of foes in the race that may have a shot of beating him. Tax (7-2) is coming back off a layoff for the Danny Gargan barn, and Title Ready (10-1) is going to be a great price and has run well in his three trips over the Keeneland main track.

The $500,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) could produce a starter or two for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

Magic Attitude is the 5-2 morning line favorite and was a very impressive winner of the Belmont Oaks (G1) in her U.S. debut on Sept. 15. Her trainer Arnaud Delacour indicated bringing her back on another four-week break might be too much for her, and she may not make it to the Breeders’ Cup.

She only had to beat three foes in the Belmont Oaks, but she did it in style and looks capable of moving forward off that effort.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 11 strongest plays from Belmont Park and Keeneland.

You can catch the action from Belmont Park today from 12:00 to 6:00 ET on FS1. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. offers a risk-free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Belmont Park and Best Plays Reports for Saturday, click here.

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily, and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday, and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Reports.

Here is the opener from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:20 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 1 Alw $55,000N1X

• #7 Miss Jimmy 9-2
• #5 Courageous Girl 7-2
• #3 Blitchton Lady 6-1
• #8 Cheatham Hill 10-1

Analysis: Miss Jimmy invades from Finger Lakes, and this gal has landed in the exacta in 12 of her 13 career starts. All of those have come at Finger Lakes except two back at the Spa in the slop where she ran a decent second at this level going 6 1/2 furlongs. She has some tactical speed she is proven going a route of ground. A one-turn mile looks like it should suit her, and with the bug up for the barn, this gal should end up a fair price.

Courageous Girl chased the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out in the state-bred Fleet Indian going nine furlongs. At a mile, her last trip came four back at Aqueduct in the state-bred Maddie May, where she dueled for the early lead and held on for the runner-up spot. She drops in class here and fits here with her best. The Donk barn had a good meet at the Spa but has been ice cold here, going 0 for 32. This gal has a shot of getting him off the duck.

BELMONT PARK RACE 5 ANALYSIS (2:30 P.M. ET)

BEL Race 5 The Frizette G1

• #1 Vequist 2-1
• #2 Cantata 9-5
• #5 Dayoutofoffice 3-1
• #4 Joy's Rocket 5-1

Analysis: Vequist was beaten by a nose in her debut and came to Saratoga for the Spinaway (G1), where she was sent off at 6-1. She launched at the break, pressed the early pace while in the two paths, edged clear and drew away smartly to win by 9 ½ lengths. She did it over a racing strip where the outer paths were best that day. The third-place finisher Lady Lilly came back to beat Alw-2L optional claimers at Keeneland in her next start while the fifth-place finisher Guana Cay graduated in her next outing on Oct. 3 at Keeneland. She should have no problem handling the extra ground. She is by Nyquist out of a stakes-placed Mineshaft mare. The Reid barn is 11% winners (with a +ROI), moving runners from sprint to route.

Cantata was a very impressive maiden winner in her debut. She tracked the early pace and pulled clear to win by 10 ¼ lengths going 6 ½ furlongs as the chalk. Two have come out of that race to run back; the fifth and sixth place finishers came back to run third and eighth respectively. The filly was a $950,000 Keeneland purchase, by Medaglia d’Oro out of the stakes winner Stowshoe ($51,210), a West Virginia bred that won a couple of state-bred stakes at Charles Town. She looks as if she still has a ton of upside.

Dayoutoftheoffice makes her first start since winning the Schuylerville (G3) at Saratoga on July 16 in her stakes debut. She was bumped coming out of the gate, prompted the early pace, and got clear heading for home, geared down late in a six-length win. The racing strip was kind to outside stalkers and closers that day. The runner up in that race was Make Mischief, who was second in the state-bred Seeking the Ante and then ran a well-beaten fifth in the Chandelier (G1) at Del Mar. She broke her maiden going 4 ½ furlongs at Gulfstream Park two back and owns solid early and mid-pace numbers. She shares top last out speed fig honors with our top pick.

KEENELAND RACE 9 ANALYSIS (5:30 P.M. ET)

KEE Race 9 The QE II Challenge Cup G1

• #4 Magic Attitude 5-2
• #2 Sweet Melania 7-2
• #6 Hendy Woods 10-1
• #7 Micheline 6-1

Analysis: Magic Attitude made her U.S. debut last out in the Belmont Oaks (G1), where she was sent off at 6-5, and she did not disappoint. She raced last early reserved and came with a six-wide move, taking over the lead and edging clear to win by 2 1/4 lengths. She won a Group 3 at Longchamp three back and was second and fifth in a couple of Group 1 race before heading stateside. She won last out as if she still has plenty of room to move forward.

Sweet Melania tracked the early pace, took over the lead heading for home, and got nailed at the wire in the Lake George (G3) going a mile over good ground as the beaten chalk. She wired the field two back in the Wonder Again (G3) off the bench, her first start since her third in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). She looks primed for a top effort here third off the bench, and she has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs. She has now been landed in the money in all of her nine career starts and should be right in the ix early in this spot.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park

• R1: #8 Cheatham Hill 10-1
• R2: #9 City Temper 12-1
• R2: #10 Jen’s Battle 10-1
• R3: #2 Pinch of Grace 10-1
• R3: #1 Alemia 8-1
• R3: #7 M Is for Magic 10-1
• R4: #1 Ambivalent 15-1
• R6: #5 Nova Rags 8-1
• R7: #3 Stand With Mo 12-1
• R7: #2 Hard Love 10-1
• R8: #4 La Signare 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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