Juvenile Fillies Predictions, Odds, Preview


Breeders' Cup Betting Guide

Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 6 and Saturday November 7 at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.

Juvenile Fillies Morning-Line Odds

1 Simply Ravishing 5/2
2 Vequist 8/1
3 Dayoutoftheoffice 5/2
4 Thoughtfully 20/1
5 Girl Daddy 6/1
6 Crazy Beautiful 20/1
7 Princess Noor 9/5

Field Subject to Change

Juvenile Fillies Betting Resources

  • Distance: 1 1/16 miles
  • Purse: $2 million
  • Age: 2YOf
  • Date: Friday, November 6
  • Time: 3:50 p.m. ET

The History

Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star, Silverbulletday, Beholder and Songbird are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event.

My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. Ria Antonia was put up via DQ in 2013 after She’s a Tiger bumped her in deep stretch.

Juvenile Fillies Fast Facts

  • Favorites: 18 for 36 (50%)
  • Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990) *Shortest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
  • Highest: $125.40 (Take Charge Brandi, 2014)

How to Handicap the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

The Best

7-Princess Noor is the 9-5 morning line favorite and is undefeated in three starts for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, all coming in southern California. After breaking her maiden and winning the G1 Del Mar Debutante in a pair of sprints at the San Diego area oval, she stretched out to this distance to easily take the G2 Chandelier by over eight lengths in late September. She’s won while racing on the lead and from just off it but has run slow speed figures in her first three starts, failing to break the 80 Beyer Speed Figure ceiling.

3-Dayoutoftheoffice has won at three different distances at three different tracks to start her career. Trained by Tim Hamm, she won first out at Gulfstream going four-and-a-half furlongs in May then took the six-furlong, G3 Schuylerville on opening day at Saratoga two months later by six lengths. After a near three-month break, she stretched out to a mile most recently to take the G1 Frizette at Belmont

1-Simply Ravishing leads a strong one-two punch for trainer Ken McPeek as she comes into the Juvenile Fillies with a win in the G1 Alcibiades over the Keeneland main track at this trip in early October. She debuted on the turf at this distance at Saratoga this past summer and grinded out a one-length victory before taking the off-the-turf P.G. Johnson at the Spa going seven furlongs, both from just off the pace. Last out, she went wire-to-wire for the first time in the Alcibiades.

McPeek will also saddle Alcibiades runner-up 6-Crazy Beautiful. Like her stablemate, she broke her maiden going two turns on turf, a mile at Ellis Park to be specific, before cutting back to win the seven-furlong Debutante over their main track. She finished a good second as the favorite in the G3 Pocahontas at Churchill before being forced to chase Simply Ravishing last out when the other speed in the race got away slowly.

The Rest

2-Vequist broke her maiden in her second try in the G1 Spinaway on closing weekend at Saratoga. That win is sandwiched between a pair of second-place finishes, one in her debut at Parx where she lost a maiden race by a nose and last out in the Frizette.

5-Girl Daddy has won both of her starts, a maiden race at Ellis and the Pocahontas, with a couple of powerful, late rallies. This will be her first start in just over two months.

4-Thoughtfully suffered her first defeat when fourth while stretching out in the Alcibiades. She broke her maiden by almost nine lengths in her debut at Churchill before taking the G2 Adirondack by five lengths two starts back.

Juvenile Fillies Predictions

If I’m Right...

Princess Noor is going to vie for favoritism and is nowhere near fast enough to compete with some of the others in here. I’m going to toss her and play around with the other fillies who figure to take money.

Live Longshot...

6-Crazy Beautiful figures to get a better set-up this time around. She’ll likely be in the 10-1 or 12-1 range, , not the 20-1 quoted on the morning line, but that’s still serious value on a filly that’s been favored in all four starts to date and never higher than 5-2.

Listen to "The Big A"

Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile