Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:52 PM
Mile Predictions, Odds, Preview
Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 6 and Saturday November 7 at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.
Mile Morning-Line Odds
1 Circus Maximus 12/1
2 Kameko 6/1
3 Lope Y Fernandez 30/1
4 Siskin 12/1
5 Digital Age 8/1
6 Safe Voyage 15/1
7 Casa Creed 20/1
8 March to the Arch 15/1
9 One Master 15/1
10 Halladay 12/1
11 Ivar 4/1
12 Uni 5/1
13 Factor This 8/1
14 Raging Bull 8/1
Field Subject to Change
Mile Betting Resources
- Distance: 1 mile on turf
- Purse: $2 million
- Age: 3up
- Date: Saturday, November 7
- Time: 3:15 pm EST
Where should I start?!?!
Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994.
Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998. And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011.
In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013.
It’s worth noting that Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.
Mile Fast Facts
- Favorites: 12 for 36 (33%)
- Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
- Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
- U.S based-Foreign based:: 22/14
- The champ is here?: Yes, as Uni is back to defend her title.
How to Handicap the Breeders' Cup Mile
We ditch the traditional format for numerical order. After careful consideration, it was too difficult to figure out the best from the rest, a nice way of me wishing you luck in this one!
1-Circus Maximus has won once in five starts since a fourth-place finish in this last year. He started this season with a popular win as the 4-1 favorite in the G1 Queen Anne at the Royal Ascot meet then finished second in the Sussex. He was third in a pair of G1 races before tiring badly in the QE II at Ascot most recently some three weeks prior to this.
2-Kameko won the G1 English 2000 Guineas to start the year before losing three straight going longer and/or against older rivals before finding the winner’s circle again last out in a G2 at Newmarket at the trip.
3-Lope Y Fernandez is winless in seven tries, all against G1 competition, since winning two of his first four starts last year as a juvenile. He was third in his lone start at this trip, his only start beyond seven furlongs.
4-Siskin win the first five starts of his career, including the G1 Phoenix to close out his juvenile season and G1 Irish 200 Guineas at this trip to kick off his sophomore campaign before finishing third in the Sussex and fourth in the Prix du Moulin in his only two starts against older horses.
5-Digital Age rallied from far back to win the G1 Turf Classic on the Kentucky Derby undercard, his second win over the course having won the G3 American Turf in 2019. He cuts back to a mile since winning his first two career starts at Tampa Bay Downs against maidens and in the Columbia.
6-Safe Voyage has done the majority of his best work across his 29 start, 12 win career, at shorter distances throughout Europe while racing on both turf and synthetic surfaces.
7-Casa Creed set the pace before tiring to fourth in the Shadwell after finishing third in The Fourstardave. He’s won two of his eight starts at the distance, including the G2 Hall of Fame at Saratoga in August 2019.
8-March to the Arch finished second in the G1 Woodbine Mile behind the marvelous mare Starship Jubilee after taking the G2 King Edward at the same trip over the Woodbine course two starts back. He’ll be looking for his first G1 win while stepping up in class.
Six-year-old mare 9-One Master takes on the boys seeking her first win in her seventh start at the distance. A multiple G1 winner at seven furlongs, she finished fifth, beaten just a length in this event two years ago.
10-Halladay has won three of his last four, including the G1 Fourstardave when last seen in late August. Another who does his best running on the front end, his two worst efforts this season have come when he wasn’t on the lead.
11-Ivar upset the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile over this course last out at over 14-1 with a strong rally through the final quarter mile. Overall, he’s won five of seven starts, including two at this distance. He’s the tepid 4-1 favorite on the morning line.
12-Uni is the lone B.C. winner to come back to defend their title this year having come from nearly last to defeat fellow filly Got Stormy in last year’s renewal. Like last season, she comes into this off of a win in the G1 First Lady against filles at this trip over the course, her lone win from three starts.
Former claimer 13-Factor This has won five of his last six starts, all stakes, including four graded, with his lone blemish being a runner-up effort behind Digital Age two back. Though winless in six starts at the distance, he’s won over seven different courses while on or close to the lead in his career, including an allowance contest locally, and handles all types of turf conditions.
14-Raging Bull, who broke his maiden over the course at this strip in his debut over two years ago, stormed home to take the G1 Charlie Whittingham, the first Win and You’re In B.C. event in the U.S. this year back in May before finishing third in the G1 Makers Mark Mile and second in the Shadwell over the course most recently.
15-Order of Australia has won just once in six turf starts and has spent a majority of his career racing at longer distances. He is the lone also eligible in the field.
If I’m Right...
Like last year, I think the Americans hold an edge over the European contingent.
7-Casa Creed has run a couple of sneaky good races in his last two and his best races have come at this distance. Plus, he’ll be higher than his morning line odds of 20-1.
Listen to "The Big A"
Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile