Distaff Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Breeders' Cup Betting Guide

Welcome to Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Preview, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 6 and Saturday November 7 at Keeneland in Lexington Kentucky.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race.

Distaff Morning-Line Odds

1 Ce Ce 12/1
2 Harvest Moon 12/1
3 Dunbar Road 12/1
4 Horologist 8/1
5 Swiss Skydiver 2/1
6 Lady Kate 15/1
7 Point of Honor 30/1
8 Valiance 12/1
9 Ollie's Candy 10/1
10 Monomoy Girl 8/5

Field Subject to Change

Distaff Betting Resources

• Distance: 1 1/8 miles
• Purse: $2 million
• Age: 3up(f&m)
• Date: Saturday, November 7
• Time: 3:54 p.m. ET

The History

In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs.

Bayakoa won back to back running the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history.

Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008.

Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders’ Cup race.

Rosie Napravnik announced her retirement after guiding the three-year-old Untapable to a popular score in 2014.

In 2016, Beholder beat the undefeated Songbird by a nostril in the “mother of all Distaffs,” joining Goldikova as the only other horse to win three Breeders’ Cup races.

Distaff Fast Facts

• Favorites: 15 for 36 (42%)
• Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
• Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
• The champ is here?: No, as Blue Prize has been retired. But 2018 winner Monomoy Girl is here.

How to Handicap the Breeders' Cup Distaff

The Best

10-Monomoy Girl will be looking for her second win in the Distaff as the 8-5 morning line favorite when she makes her fourth start after missing 18 months for trainer Brad Cox.

It’s been a remarkable career for Monomoy Girl as she has won 12 of her 14 starts with her lone defeats coming by a neck as a two-year-old in the G2 Golden Rod at Churchill and via disqualification two years ago in the G1 Cotillion at Parx.

In all, Monomoy Girl has won six G1 races, including the La Troienne from off the pace at Churchill in her most recent outing some two months ago and is perfect in three starts at this distance, including the G1 Ashland over this strip.

5-Swiss Skydiver has been in training for well over a year and will be making her twelfth start in 50 weeks, a rarity in racing, especially for a young filly, nowadays.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Swiss Skydiver has had an ambitious campaign, and that’s putting it mildly. She’s won at six different tracks, at four different distances and with five different riders. She will be facing older horses for the first time but is an American classic winner after a gutsy win the G1 Preakness most recently.

Earlier this year, Swiss Skydiver won the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, G3 Fantasy at Oaklawn and G2 Santa Anita Oaks before a second-place finish in her first attempt against colts in the G2 Blue Grass. After a win in the G1 Alabama, McPeek tinkered with the idea of running her in the Kentucky Derby but settled on the Oaks, where she finished second.

The Rest

Tough-luck 9-Ollie’s Candy has hit the board, though is winless, in all five starts this year, all in G1 races, losing her last four races by a COMBINED two lengths. A distant third place finish in the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita was followed by a second-place finish by a head in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in which she set a fast pace, a neck defeat in the Ogden Phipps at Belmont. In her most recent efforts, she missed in the Hersch by three-quarters of a length and the Spinster over the course and at this distance, by the same margin.

3-Dunbar Road will be making just her fourth start of the year and second since corrective throat surgery. Fifth as a three-year-old in last year’s renewal, she started this season with wins in minor-stakes at Churchill and the G2 Delaware Handicap, run at this distance, before her operation. Last out in the G2 Beldame at Belmont she never seemed to handle the track and the race unfolded quickly when she beat just the fading pacesetter home to finish third.

2-Harvest Moon is undefeated on dirt in four starts since finishing third in her career debut on turf. She’s won at all three SoCal tracks in similar style, including the G3 Torrey Pines against fellow three-year-old fillies at Del Mar and G3 Zenyatta at Santa Anita against older horses.

4-Horologist contested the pace, then backed off and re-rallied in the Beldame to get the money most recently. Three starts back, in her first start for this barn, she won for the fifth time in five tries at Monmouth Park, taking the G3 Molly Pitcher then finished a solid third in the La Troienne.

It’s been a tale of two cities for 1-Ce Ce this season. She started the year with three wins, including the Beholder Mile and Apple Blossom, a race where she overcame a wide trip from post 14 to get the money. But the wheels have come off since. She failed to fire when she finished third in both the G2 Santa Maria and G1 Clement Hirsch before she cut back from the routes to finish fourth without threatening in the G1 DC Distaff at Churchill going seven furlongs on Kentucky Derby day.

7-Point of Honor sports the exact same record as Ollie’s Candy this year. Third in the Apple Blossom after a second-place finish in an overnight race while sprinting at Tampa to kick off the season, she finished second by a nose in the Phipps before finishing a ways behind recently retired Vexatious and Midnight Bisou in the G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga. Last out, she took advantage of a great set-up to be second in the Beldame.

8-Valiance upset the Spinster when winning on the main track for just the second time in her career. A four-time winner from five starts on turf, including a couple of minor stakes, Valiance sat in mid-pack before grabbing the lead at the eighth pole for her only graded stakes tally last out.

6-Lady Kate figures to set the pace while looking for her first win around two turns and at Keeneland. Last out she chased the pace in the Spinster before fading to fourth. She’s won half of her eight starts this year, with her most impressive effort to date coming two back when she lost the La Troienne by less than two lengths.

Distaff Predictions

If I’m Right...

We should be in for another classic Distaff. This reminds me a lot of beholder vs. Songbird in 2016, with the old guard in Monomoy Girl taking on the new kid on the block in Swiss Skydiver

Live Longshot...

3-Dunbar Road ran too poorly to believe last time out. I’m hoping she needed the race, one that played out strangely, and she can rebound at around her 12-1 morning line odds.

Listen to "The Big A"

Anthony “the Big A” Stabile can be heard regularly on the Horse Racing Radio Network from 3-6:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday and 3-7:00 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday. Tune in on Sirius 219, XM 201 or streaming live at horseracingradio.net. He also is a contributor on NYRA-TV as the co-host of Talking Horses and a backup racetrack announcer. Follow him on Twitter @TheBigAStabile

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