Friday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Keeneland

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

The two-day Breeders’ Cup gets underway this afternoon with Future Stars Friday, five championship races restricted to two-year-olds.

Keeneland offers up a 10-race card today with five stakes, then the five Breeders’ Cup races. The action continues on Saturday with the remaining nine Breeders’ Cup races.

Lost in the shuffle is today is also opening day at Aqueduct, which offers up a 10-race card including a pair of stakes—the $100,000 Tempted and the $100,000 Atlantic Beach.

The highlight on Friday at Keeneland will be the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), races that will produce the early betting favorites for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby (G1).

Jackie’s Warrior is already getting Derby buzz after starting off his career with four wins, winning the Champagne (G1) by 5 ½ lengths. The colt is the 7-5 morning line favorite for the Juvenile and likely will be the shortest price over the 14 Breeders’ Cup races.

The Steve Asmussen trainee will be going two turns for the first time but he looks very imposing.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies drew the smallest field among the 14 races with just seven going to the post, but it is a deep and talented group.

Princess Noor is the 9-5 morning line favorite and is sent out by the Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the race twice. She is undefeated in three starts, taking the Chandelier (G2) at Santa Anita in her last outing.

She faces three other fillies that have not tasted defeat. Simply Ravishing (5-2) appears to be her biggest threat. She won the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland in her last start and is perfect in three outings.

Dayoutoftheoffice (5-2) is perfect in three starts, winning the Frizette (G1) in her last outing. And Girl Daddy (6-1) won the Pocahontas (G3) and is perfect in her two starts.

You can catch the action from Aqueduct today from 11:00 to 4:30 ET on FS2.  The Breeders’ Cup races will be televised on the NBC Sports Network from 2:00 to 6:00 ET. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .

My Best Plays Report for Friday includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Keeneland.

To purchase my Aqueduct, Best Plays and Breeders’ Cup Reports for Friday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily, my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my two-day Breeders’ Cup Reports.

Here is the second from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start: 

AQUEDUCT RACE 2 ANALYSIS (11:42 A.M. ET)

Race 2 Md $40,000

• #11 Eccoci Qua   7-2
• #12 Frat   4-1
• #13 Fast Gordan   5-2
• #4 Disciplinarian   3-1

Analysis: Eccoci Qua drops in for a tag here for his third career start for the Breen barn that is 27% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. The gelding checked in fifth in his debut on the main track at the Spa, sent off at 7-1 in a field of six. Last out on turf he tracked the early pace before backing up to finish eighth, beaten six lengths. He faces an easier group here. The gelding is out of the turf stakes winner American Border ($337,400) who has dropped four winners and two have won on turf. Looks as if he has enough tactical speed to handle the cut back to six furlongs.

Frat dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely until late in a runner up finish last out for this tag, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. His best figure came two back at eh Spa over good ground where he was a game second, beaten 3/4 of a length. This guy owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and if Kendrick gets loose early, he may prove tough to catch in this spot. He is out of a Scat Daddy mare that has dropped three other foals to race with a pair of dirt winners, no turf winners to date. 

AQUEDUCT RACE 9 ANALYSIS (3:38 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Atlantic Beach

• #1 Arrest Me Red   5-1
• #4 Whatmakessammyrun   2-1
• #5 Trade Deal   3-1
• #9 Phantom Smoke   6-1

Analysis: Arrest Me Red cuts back to sprint after tracking the early pace and weakening to finish fifth in the Bourbon (G2) going long at Keeneland. The colt broke his maiden in his debut at Laurel Park over good ground going 5 1/2 furlongs on turf. He is in good hands with the Delacour barn that is 18% winners overall in turf sprints. The colt is a half to stakes winner Hidden Treat ($118,515) who is a two-time winner on turf.

Whatmakessammyrun ran huge in his turf debut which was his second career start. He stalked the early pace and drew away to win by 8 3/4 lengths Belmont Park going seven furlongs. Weaver is coming off a good Belmont Park meeting and this was one of a few the barn had that just run out of their shoes. He is out of a Touch Gold mare that has dropped three other turf winners. The cut back to six furlongs should not pose a problem and this guy won last out as if he still may have some upside. 

KEENELAND RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:50 P.M. ET)

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies G1

• #1 Simply Ravishing   5-2
• #3 Dayoutoftheoffice   5-2
• #2 Vequist   8-1
• #7 Princess Noor   9-5

Analysis: Simply Ravishing gets the call and I am not sold on the foes that favorite Princess Noor beat in her last two starts. The favorite has won just one of the last seven editions of this race while in the history of the race favorite have done really well (18 for 36). Our top pick draw s the rail and took the field gate to wire to win the Alcibiades (G1) over the main track here. The McPeek trainee is now perfect in three starts, breaking her maiden on turf at the Spa in her debut and then trouncing the field in the off the turf PG Johnson at seven furlongs in her stakes debut. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and has worked sharply since her last effort. She likely is not quick enough to wire this group, but she should be forwardly placed and speed has done well in this race, 8 of the last 15 winners were won in gate to wire fashion. This gal gives McPeek a great chance to get off his Breeders' Cup duck where he is 0 for 31 but he has had 16 of his runners landing second or third.

Dayoutoftheoffice is perfect in three starts, earning the top last out speed fig in a good looking win in the Frizette (G1) at Belmont Park going a one turn mile. She broke her maiden going 4 1/2 in her debut back in May at Gulfstream Park and then won the Schuylerville (G3) at the Spa by six lengths in her stakes debut. She looks as if she is going to have no issue going two turns for the first time. She is by Into Mischief out of an Indian Charlie mare.

Vequist was the beaten chalk in the Frizette where she had to settle for the runner up spot, beaten two lengths. She was better than 10 lengths clear of the rest of the field in the effort. She was beaten a nose in her debut at Parx, then shipped to New York for the Spinaway (G1) at seven furlongs where she rolled to a 9 1/2 length win. Two she beat came out of that race to win next out, one a maiden and the other beating Alw-1 foes. In addition, fourth place finisher Irish Constitution came back to runs second in the state bred Joe A. Gimma. She is bred to handle two turns, by Nyquist out of a stakes placed Mineshaft mare. 

LIVE LONGSHOTS

Aqueduct

• R1: #7 Mia Bea Star   8-1
• R3: #3 Silky Blue   10-1
• R5: #7 Yankee Division   8-1
• R6: #4 palace Gossip   15-1
• R7: #8 Albie   8-1
• R7: #6 Ten Eyck   8-1
• R10: #8 Scotty Brown   8-1 

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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