Thursday’s Picks from Del Mar and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

The four-day holiday weekend gets underway on Thursday and while Aqueduct is dark today we will look for some betting action at Churchill Downs and Del Mar this afternoon.

Over the next four days we have 15 graded stakes on tap between Churchill Downs, Aqueduct and Del Mar, and with most of us not travelling to visit our drunk uncle, we will have some extra time to get a few wagers in.

The feature this afternoon at Churchill Downs is the $200,000 Falls City Handicap (G2) which drew a field of nine fillies and mares that will travel 1 1/8 miles on the main track.

The feature at Del Mar today is the $100,000 Red Carpet Handicap (G3) for fillies and mares going 1 3/8 miles on turf.

We have the $500,000 Clark (G1) at Churchill Downs and the $100,000 Comely at Aqueduct coming up on Friday.

On Saturday the two-year-olds take center stage at Churchill Downs in the $200,000 Golden Rod (G2) and the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), the latter a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

There are four stakes on the Saturday card at Aqueduct including the $100,000 Discovery (G3) and the $100,000 Long Island (G3).

On Saturday at Del Mar we have the $300,000 Hollywood Derby (G1) along with the $200,000 Seabiscuit Handicap (G2) and the $100,000 Jimmy Durante (G3).

There are three stakes on Sunday’s card at Aqueduct including the $100,000 Fall Highweight Handicap (G3). The $300,000 Matriarch (G1) is the Sunday feature at Del Mar.

My Best Plays Report for Thursday includes my eight strongest plays from Del Mar and Churchill Downs.

You can catch the action from Churchill Downs today at 11:30am to 5:00 ET on FS2.  In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a $250 bonus for new players.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Thursday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday. 

DEL MAR RACE 6 ANALYSIS (1:30 P.M. PT)

Race 6 The Red Carpet Hcp G3

• #1 California Kook   5-1
• #10 Quick   6-1
• #8 Blame Debbie   3-1
• #4 Orglandes   5-2

Analysis: California Kook faces a bit easier her after checking in fifth last out in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) at Keeneland last out, beaten three lengths for the top spot. She took on the boys two back where she made a mild late rally to finish fourth in the Del Mar Derby (G2). She sure looks as if she will relish the added ground here. Miller is having a strong meeting, hitting at a 29% clip and this gal picks up Rosario.

Quick stalked the early pace and made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot against Alw-2 optional claimers last out going a mile at Santa Anita. She was beaten just a neck three back over this trip here in the CTT and TOC. She set all the fractions in that outing and got caught late. She should be more forwardly place here on the stretch out and Rispoli sticks for the Sadler barn. Looks as if she is going to be a fair price in this spot and she steps back up into graded stakes company. 

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 10 ANALYSIS (3:53 P.M. ET)

Race 10 The Falls City Hcp G2

• #1 Envoutante   5-2
• #3 Bonny South   8-5
• #5 Our Super Freak   9-2
• #4 Smooth With a Kick   5-1

Analysis: Envoutante is coming off her best looking effort of her career, winning the Remington Park Oaks (G3) by 3 ¼ lengths as the chalk. She was no match for Bonny South two back when fourth in the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga at 1 ¼ miles. This is her first trip at nine furlongs and she draws the rail in a race without much early speed signed up. Our Super Freak figures to set a moderate pace and our top pick should be able to work out a good trip sitting just off the pace. If she can get a jump on the favorite in here turning for home she can get the job done.

Bonny South came up a neck short last out in the Black Eyed Susan (G2) at Pimlico on Preakness Day. She was away last and came with a good late rally to just miss at 4-5. Two back she ran second in the Alabama behind Swiss Skydiver, who came back to run second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), win the Preakness (G1) and then was disappointing seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Her last pair of speed figs are tops in here but her price is going to be on the light side and actually this race does not exactly set up for her. Cox has been on a roll in stakes this year and won this race last year with Mylady Curlin.

Our Super Freak was a disappointing sixth in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland where she as next to last early and tired to finish a well beaten sixth and last. She was up on the pace in her two previous starts, a third in the Shuvee (G3) and a second in the Molly Pitcher (G3). She earned competitive numbers in those two outings and picks up yet another new jock in Saez who figures to send her early. If she gets loose early she can be a threat in this spot.

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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