Saturday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

We have an outstanding 10-race card on tap at Aqueduct on Saturday with four stakes races, and we have a pair of graded stakes at Churchill Downs on their “Stars of Tomorrow” card exclusive to two-year-olds.

Simply Ravishing is going to be tough as the even money favorite in the $200,00 Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill Downs while the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) might offer us a better chance of beating the chalk.

Keepmeinmind is the 6-5 favorite in the race, which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race. The colt was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last out.

I am going to give recent maiden winner Swill a shot. The Brad Cox trainee is 6-1 on the morning line and looks as if he still has plenty of upside.

Out of the four stakes at the Big A Mutamakina (7-2) in the only morning line favorite I picked on top. She is in a 12-horse field and still may end up offering some value.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.

You can catch the action from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs today from 11:30am ET to 2:00 and 4:00 to 6:30 on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (11:50 A.M. ET)

Race 1 Md

• #7 Charlie Five O 5-2
• #8 Romantic Man 9-2
• #3 Pacific Legend 3-1
• #5 Sinashack 10-1

Analysis: Charlie Five O was sent off at 6-5 when making his debut for Asmussen at Keeneland for a $50,000 tag last month. The colt dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth. He was claimed out of the race and goes today for the Gargan barn that is 44% winners (with a +ROI) first off the claim. He picks up Carmouche and figures to be tough to catch here if able to shake lose early.

Romantic Man debuts for the Weaver barn that is 17% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. The gelding is by Mucho Macho Man out of a Ghostzapper mare, her first foal to race. Solid looking works on the morning tab and this looks like a good spot here debuting for a $40,000 tag. Weaver does not use Ortiz often and the jock is off to a frigid start to the meeting.

AQUEDUCT RACE 9 ANALYSIS (3:44 P.M. ET)

Race 9 The Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship

• #10 Therapist 7-2
• #9 Archidust 4-1
• #7 El Tormenta 10-1
• #8 Maxwell Esquire 6-1

Analysis: Therapist wheels back off a two week break and cuts back from a mile where the Clement trainee made a good late rally to get up and win the Artie Schiller over good ground here. He has run in turf sprints between six and seven furlongs six times in his career and has won five of them, most recently the First Defence at seven panels at Belmont Park back in June. He won both of his starts at six furlongs on turf. He comes in her sharp and can win right back. The barn is 20% winners moving runners from route to sprint.

Archidust was pinched back coming out of the gate and came with a mild late rally to finish third last out in the Belmont Turf Sprint (G3) as the beaten favorite. He came into that race off back to back stakes wins o turf at Monmouth Park. The colt has won 4 of 7 on turf doing his best work at 5 1/2 furlongs. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and if he runs back to his efforts two and three back he fits well in this spot.

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 11 ANALYSIS (5:56 P.M. ET)

Race 11 The Kentucky Jockey Club G2

• #2 Swill 6-1
• #4 Keepmeinmind 6-5
• #7 King Fury 6-1
• #1 Sittin On Go / 1a Smiley Sobotka 5-1

Analysis: Swill goes a route of ground for the first time here for the Cox barn. The colt took the field gate to wire to break his maiden last out at seven furlongs over the main track here. The runner up Santa Cruiser came back to graduate in his next outing on Nov. 15. This guy is bred to go long, by Munnings out of an Into Mischief mare, her first foal to race. The blinkers come off for Cox who is 23% winners moving runners from sprint to route. He comes in her fresh and appears to be sitting on a good one.

Keepmeinmind was outrun early and came with a good late run to finish third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). He came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) two back. He was 31-1 last out and 52-1 two back. That does make the 6-5 morning line tough to take in this spot. It looks as if he is going to get some pace to set things up for him.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R1: #5 Sinashack 10-1
• R2: #6 Itsakeyper 12-1
• R4: #5 No Obligation 8-1
• R7: #2 Breadman 8-1
• R8: #3 Glass Ceiling 12-1
• R9: #7 El Tormenta 10-1
• R10: #6 English Affair 8-1
• R9: #10 Miss Teheran   8-1
• R10: #1 This Ill Defend   8-1

 Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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