Sunday’s Picks from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

We close out the holiday weekend on Sunday with three stakes on the card at Aqueduct including the $100,000 Fall Highweight Handicap (G3).

The Fall Highweight has been run since 1914 and is the traditional Thanksgiving Day stakes race. But in this topsy turvy year the NYRA elected to close on Thursday and the race will go as the eighth race on today’s 10-race card.

Share the Ride is the 9-5 morning line favorite and will tote 133 pounds which will include jockey Jose Ortiz. The gelding is coming off a sharp 7 ½ length win at Parx Racing against non-conditioned allowance company.

The speedy Tribecca (8-1) gets the meet’s leading rider Kendrick Carmouche and if the gelding is able to shake loose early he could take them all the way at a decent price.

The stakes action starts with the seventh race which is the $100,000 Autumn Days. A field of 10 will go six furlongs on the outer turf course. Lead Guitar is the 2-1 morning line favorite and coming off a win in the Floral Park in his last start.

The $100,000 Tepin will go off as the ninth race on the card. The 1 1/16-mile test on turf is for two-year-old fillies and drew a field of 12 but nine will likely start with three main track only entrants.

The well bred Lovestruck is the 7-5 morning line favorite. The Bill Mott trainee overcame a tough start to break her maiden in her debut and appears to have a very bright future.

My Best Plays Report for Sunday includes my nine strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs.

You can catch the action from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs today from 11:30am ET to 6:30 on FS2. In addition, you can stream the action on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a risk free bet up to $300 for new players.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Sunday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (11:50 A.M. ET)

Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #6 Determined Fury 2-1
• #3 Clemenza 3-1
• #4 Instinctive Rhythm 9-5
• #5 Growl Tiger 6-1

Analysis: Determined Fury stalked the early pace and came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot in his debut. He could not catch the gate to wire winner who was taking advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed that day. The winner was Twelfth Man, who came back to run second against Alw-1 foes in his next outing on Nov. 13. The gelding popped a couple of bullet works for his second career start for the Clement barn that has been on fire at the meeting, hitting at a 35% clip. The barn is 19% winners overall with second out maidens. He looks tough here and does not need to move forward much off his solid debut to get it done here.

Clemenza is back on the main track after checking in fifth going a mile on turf in his second career start. He put in a solid effort in his debut at Monmouth Park coming with a late run to finish just a length back of the winner. The Breen barn is 33% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint. This guy was a $250,000 purchase, by Malibu Moon out of a Harlan's Holiday mare that has dropped one winner.

AQUEDUCT RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:15 P.M. ET)

Race 8 The Fall Highweight Hcp G3

• #7 Tribecca 8-1
• #3 Majestic Dunhill 2-1
• #5 Share the Ride 9-5
• #6 Stan the Man 3-1

Analysis: Tribecca took the field gate to wire to win the state bred Hudson last out, drawing off to win by three lengths. The gelding comes in here in sharp form and he owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers. He breaks from the outside with Kendrick and if he clears early he could prove tough to catch here. He has four wins over the main track here and the 8-1 morning line looks generous.

Majestic Dunhill caught a muddy track last out in the Bold Ruler 'Cap (G3) at Belmont Park. The gelding tracked the early pace and finished gamely to win by a head. The runner up Share the Ride came back to beat non-conditioned allowance foes at Philly in his next start and is in here. The Weaver trainee is a seven-furlong specialist, and this is actually his first trip at six furlongs. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and comes in here off a career top speed fig in his 21st career outing.

CHURCHILL DOWNS RACE 8 ANALYSIS (4:27 P.M. ET)

Race 8 Md Sp Wt

• #12 Wellman 5-1
• #7 Convention 4-1
• #5 Patriarch Artie 9-2
• #6 Bugle of War 12-1

Analysis: Wellman stalked the early pace and made a mild late rally to finish third last out at Keeneland going six furlongs over a wet track in his second career start. He came with a god late run to finish in the runner up spot in his debut at Indiana Grand in August where he was sent off at 14-1. He draws the outside and looks as if he will appreciate the added furlong here. He is by Twirling Candy out of a stakes placed Chatain mare that has dropped one winner.

Convention was off poorly and never a threat in a seventh-place finish in his debut. The Asmussen trainee was sent off at 4-1 in a field of nine. He has had one breeze since his debut for a barn that is 21% winners with second out maidens. This guy was a $230,000 Keeneland purchase, out of a Shamardal mare, her first foal to race. A better break and this guy figures to show more today with a race under his belt.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R5: #4 Miss Brazil 10-1
• R6: #5 Fuchsia 20-1
• R7: #7 Mentality 8-1
• R7: #2 Rose Flower 8-1
• R8: #7 Tribecca 8-1
• R9: #3 Lexinator 8-1
• R10: #2 Red Mule 8-1

 Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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