Saturday’s Picks from Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and Fair Grounds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

15 minute read

We have a blockbuster day of betting action this afternoon highlighted by the $200,000 Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, which is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

I worked overtime looking through the cards at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park and my 12 strongest plays are included in my Best Plays Report for this afternoon. Actually I had 14 races handclapped, but the report was so large I had to knock off a couple of races for lack of room in the software.

The Lecomte drew a field of 11 with 10-4-2-1 Derby points up for grabs. The race serves as a starting point at Fair Grounds. The race is a prep for the Risen Star (G3) next month and the Louisiana Derby (G2) in March which are also Derby points races.

The field likely will be reduced to nine as Beep Beep and Manor House are cross entered in another race and their connections are leading toward that race.

The Brad Cox trained Mandaloun is the 3-1 morning line favorite and likely will go off shorter. The colt was a smart looking winner against Alw-1 optional claimers in his last outing.

We also will head out to Gulfstream Park where we have four stakes on a scaled down Sunshine Millions card. The purses of the races have been reduced from $200,000 to $75,000, hence why the track ditched the ‘Millions” out of the race names.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my 12 strongest plays from Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park.

You can stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct and Best Plays Reports for Saturday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (12:50 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md Sp Wt

• #1 Equant 6-1
• #7 Day's Humor 7-2
• #3 Voice of Spring 3-1
• #5 Qualifying Offer 5-2

Analysis: Equant makes her second start on dirt here for the Ribaudo barn. This gal was fifth and sixth in her first two career starts on turf. Last out over the main track here she tracked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth. She comes back with blinkers added and with the rail draw figures to be sent early by McCarthy. She owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and looks as if she still has some upside. She is out of a More Than Ready mare that has dropped four other runners, all winners, including stakes winner Evaluator ($369,963).

Day's Humor debuts for the Kimmel barn that is 10% winners with first timers. Note Carmouche is off our top pick to ride this firster. She is by Carpe Diem out of a Distorted Humor mare that has dropped four foals to race with one winner. Good works including a quick breeze out of the gate last month. It is not a real tough looking spot for her first career start.

AQUEDUCT RACE 8 ANALYSIS (3:50 P.M. ET)

Race 8 The Franklin Square

• #1 Vacay 8-5
• #4 Laobanonaprayer 6-5
• #3 A Life It 8-1
• #5 Rosa Veloce 6-1

Analysis: Vacay is perfect in two starts. The Pletcher trainee broke her maiden in her slop in her debut and came right back to win the state bred Key Cents over the main track here last out at six furlongs. She stalked the early pace, came with a five wide bid to take over the lead and drew away to win by 5 1/2 lengths. The runner up was Rossa Veloce who came back to beat state bred Alw-1 optional claimers in her next outing here on Dec. 20. The filly appears to still have plenty of upside, and she owns a solid pace profile throughout.

Laobanonaprayer broke her maiden by winning the state bred Maid of the Mist at Belmont Park at 8-1 in her third career start. She came right back to win a New York Stallion Series race last out by eight lengths on the cut back to seven furlongs, earning the top last out speed fig in the effort. She is the obvious one to beat but her price is going to be on the light side.

GULFSTREAM PARK RACE 10 ANALYSIS (4:18 P.M. ET)

Race 10 The Sunshine Sprint

• #4 Souper Stonehenge 5-1
• #5 Extravagant Kid 7-5
• #8 Jackson 9-2
• #2 With Verve 8-1

Analysis: Souper Stonehenge tracked the early pace, got to the lead in the stretch and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish in the Kennedy Road (G2) over Tapeta at Woodbine last out. The winner Ride a Comet came back to win the Tropical Turf (G3) here on Jan. 9. The Casse trainee has just two starts on conventional dirt, one of those his maiden win against state breds in March of '19 which produced what is still his career best speed figure. He comes in here heading in the right direction form wise and Johnny V. picks up the call.

Extravagant Kid made a good late run to finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) two back and last out came up just a neck short in the Janus over the turf here at five furlongs. He has been just as god on dirt, winning 5 of 13 trips over the main track here. The Walsh barn is 33% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt. He looks tough here but is going to end up a light price.

FAIR GROUNDS RACE 10 ANALYSIS (4:23 P.M. CT)

Race 10 The Louisiana G3

• #8 Wells Bayou 3-1
• #6 Title Ready 6-1
• #9 Sonneman 4-1
• #4 Blackberry Wine 9-2

Analysis: Wells Bayou is making his first start since his fifth in the Arkansas Derby (G1) last May. He took the field gate to wire here two back to win the Louisiana Derby (G2) going 1 3/16 miles. The Cox barn is 19% winners with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. There is not a ton of early speed in here and the early fractions should be moderate. Solid looking works at Oaklawn Park for his return.

Title Ready was outrun last out in the Clark (G1) at Churchill Downs and finds a softer spot here for the Stewart barn. This guy came off a year layoff to beat Alw-3 optional claimers last July and was a good third in the Fayette (G2) last October. After being in over his head in his last pair he fits well in this spot.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

• R4: #1 Humpday 20-1
• R5: #2 Topper T 10-1
• R6: #4 Dovey Lovey 8-1
• R7: #7 Oliver’s Fortune 12-1
• R8: #3 A Life It 8-1

Good luck today!

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