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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:51 PM

Monday's Picks from Aqueduct

We have President’s Day racing at Aqueduct this afternoon, an eight-race card that gets underway at 1:20 ET. The feature is the $100,000 Hollie Hughes for state breds going six furlongs on the main track which drew a compact field of five.

The Michelle Nevin trained Our Last Buck is the 9-5 morning line favorite. The gelding is coming off a sharp win in the state bred Say Florida Sandy at seven furlongs in his last start.

I landed on the favorite and I have to say today’s card is one of the chalkiest I have seen in New York in quite some time. If you take a look at my Live Longshots below you will see I only have two horses listed.

I list any horse at 8-1 or higher among my contenders. No, I didn’t forget to complete the last after the second race. That was it.

My top picks include the 6-5 morning line favorite in the opener, an even money favorite and far too many in the 2-1 to 5-2 range.

We could see some chalky payoffs in the Pick 4 and Pick 5’s, which are my favorite wagers. It is such a rare occurrence that I like so many logical contenders who are going to be short prices, my betting strategy may be different today.

I am likely going to cut back on my Pick 4 and Pick 5 plays and play a few more exactas. And perhaps get a head start on Thursday’s card which has to be better than today's.

“America’s Day at the Races” will be televised on FS2 from 1:00 to 5:00 ET. You can also stream the action from Aqueduct today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Monday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Aqueduct Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.

Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQUEDUCT RACE 1 ANALYSIS (1:20 P.M. ET)

Race 1 Md $40,000

  • #5 Lightfoot Miss 6-5
  • #4 Rose E Holiday 6-1
  • #1 Suspended Campaign 2-1
  • #6 Daily Briefing 10-1

Analysis: Lightfoot Miss drops in for a tag for the first time here for the Mott barn that is 22% winners dropping runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. Last out this gal came with a mild late rally from last to check in fourth over a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. She returns with lasix and blinkers added while facing an easier group. She was a good second three back going 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track at Belmont Park in her second career start. She should be closer to the pace here and is going to be tough as the chalk to kick off the day.

Rose E Holiday is a $85,000 Keeneland purchase making her debut for the Nevin barn that is 13% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters. She is by Exaggerator out of a Harlan's Holiday mare that has dropped six foals to race five winners including stakes winner Fair Point ($491,051). Solid looking works on the morning tab and Carmouche takes the call.

AQUEDUCT RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:25 P.M. ET)

Race 7 The Hollies Hughes

  • #1 Tribecca 2-1
  • #3 Our Last Buck 9-5
  • #2 Big Engine 5-1
  • #4 My Boy Tate 6-1

Analysis: Tribecca gets the nod here as he steps back in with state breds. Last out in the Fall Highweight 'Cap (G3) he dueled for the early lead and weakened late to finish fourth. beaten a length for the top spot. He took the field gate to wire two back to win the NY bred Hudson at 6 1/2 furlongs. he draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. Carmouche departs to stick with Our Last Buck who he rode last out for the first time in his win in the Say Florida Sandy.

Our Last Buck has won three of his last four starts and cuts back yet again in distance., His wins have come at 1 1/16 miles, one mile and last out in the seven furlong Say Florida Sandy. He is just 1 for 6 in his career at six furlongs. He does come in here very sharp and Kendrick figures to be aggressive enough to place him fairly close to the lead here. The gelding has done much of his best running over the main track here.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager. 

Aqueduct

  • R1: #6 Daily Briefing 10-1
  • R2: #7 Elite Speed 8-1

Good luck today!

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