Friday’s Picks from Belmont Park

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

Opening day of the Belmont Park meeting is in the books and Friday offers up a good betting card on the second day of the meet highlighted by the $100,000 Affirmed Success.

The six-furlong test on the main track drew a field of six state breds led by the 9-5 morning line favorite Captain Bombastic. The Chad Brown trainee makes his first start since running third in the state bred Hudson last October.

The colt has won three of his four starts over the Belmont Park main track and will have jockey Javier Castellano in the irons.

His main threats are the JT Servis trained Bank On Shea (10-1) who beat Alw-1 foes off the bench in his last outing at Aqueduct and Big Engine (2-1), who beat second level optional claimers in his last outing.

Coming up on Saturday we have the $100,000 Elusive Quality which drew a group of eight that will go seven furlongs on turf. Trainer Chad Brown sends out a tough looking pair in Front Run the Fed (2-1) and Value Proposition (4-1).

However, do not forget about the veteran Therapist (7-2) who runs well off layoff and won the Elusive Quality back in 2019.

It is opening night at Churchill Downs on Saturday with a 10-race card. The feature is the $150,000 William Walker which drew a field of 12 three-year-old that will go 5 ½ furlongs on grass.

‘America’s Day at the races” on FS2 will cover the action on Saturday from 1:00 to 11:00 ET. That is not a typo, it is 10 straight hours of action on national television. Friday’s coverage is from 1:00 ET until 5:30.

You can stream the action from Belmont today on YouTube or by using the TVG App. The horse betting company based in the U.S. is offering a 50% deposit match up to $250 .  In addition, AmWager is offering up to a $500 bonus for new horseplayers.

To purchase my Belmont Park Report for Friday click here .

Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package. It gives you a month of Belmont Park Reports daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday and my Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day Reports.

Here is the second race (the opener looks chalky) from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BELMONT PARK RACE 2 ANALYSIS (1:31 P.M. ET)

Race 2 Md Sp Wt

• #4 Big Little Risk 6-1
• #2 Saratoga Flash 2-1
• #1 B C Glory Days 3-1
• #9 Clever Fellow 5-2

Analysis: Big Little Risk returns off a three month break here for the Bond barn. The colt made his debut on turf where he checked in seventh, beaten six lengths. Last out in the mud he was down along a dead rail much of the trip and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish. It is back on turf here and he has a solid turf pedigree, by Big Brown out of a More Than Ready mare, although the mare has dropped six winners but no turf winners to date. The barn is 17% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61–180-day break. Decent value if this guy goes off near his 6-1 morning line.

Saratoga Flash showed improvement in his second career start and first on turf coming over good ground at Gulfstream Park last out. He tracked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a fourth-place finish. Note that outing came against open maidens and he is back in with state breds here. He is out of a Sky Mesa mare that has dropped three dirt winners, no turf winners, top earner stakes winner Nine Route ($128,948).

BELMONT PARK RACE 7 ANALYSIS (4:08 P.M. ET)

Race 7 Clm $30,000N2L

• #5 That Quality 3-1
• #12 Ultimate Irony 5-2
• #8 Allied Invasion 12-1
• #13 Amistad 6-1

Analysis: That Quality makes is first start since December where the gelding set the early fractions on the fake stuff and weakened to finish seventh against Alw-2L foes at Turfway Park going 6 1/2 furlongs. His first three starts came on turf including his maiden breaker in his debut going long at Monmouth Park back in '19. Castellano takes the call for the hot Thomas barn that is hitting at a 36% clip on the year and is 17% winners with runners coming back off a 61–180-day break. This looks like the right spot here dropping in for a $30,000 tag and back on grass.

Ultimate Irony invades from Fair Grounds for the Stidham barn. The colt was off poorly last out in a race taken off the turf and was not much of a threat in a sixth-place finish against $30,000 starter optional claimers. Two back at that same level on turf he tracked the early pace and came with a good late rally while getting bumped in deep stretch in a third-place finish, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. He broke his maiden on turf last December for a $30,000 tag. The barn is 17% winners moving runners from dirt to turf.

LIVE LONGSHOTS

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their Pick 4 or Pick 5 wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win wager.

Belmont Park

• R1: 31 Kavod 8-1
• R3: #2 Prairie Fire 8-1
• R3: #4 Truth Hurts 12-1
• R6: #1 Crystalle 10-1
• R7: #8 Allied Invasion 12-1
• R8: #1 Bank On Shea 10-1
• R9: #4 Big Easy Empire 8-1

Good luck today!

VegasInsider Staff

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