Weekly Total Talk

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

Blazing Arizona
The Arizona Diamondbacks continue to struggle on offense, and they continue to get solid pitching performances. That combination has been the recipe for plenty of winning tickets at the window for 'under' bettors. Arizona posted six runs in their shutout win against San Diego on Tuesday. While that's not a massive offensive display, the six runs were the most by the Arizona batters since posting six runs, also against the Padres on the road, back on Aug. 18. The Diamondbacks have posted just 31 runs over the past 12 games, or 2.58 runs per outing. During their 11-game 'under' streak, the Diamondbacks are allowing just 2.36 runs per game, too. That's going to cash plenty of under tickets if it continues.

It's a bit of a weird scheduling quirk, but the Snakes are off on Wednesday before opening a series with the Braves on Thursday evening. It's part of a four-game MLB slate that day, as baseball cedes the night to the National Football League, with the Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles doing battle. The Braves and Diamondbacks game should not be forgotten on Thursday, however. The 'under' is 7-0-1 across Atlanta's past eight road games, and 6-1 in their past seven against National League West opponents. In addition, the under has cashed in four of the past five heading into Wednesday's action. The under is 20-6-1 in the past 27 games overall, while going 6-0 in the past six games against teams with a winning record. The under is also 18-6-2 in the past 26 against National League East opponents. However, the over is 9-1-1 in the past 11 battles in this series, so perhaps Arizona's bats will get going.

Looking Ahead

Wednesday, Sept. 5
The Reds and Pirates battle in the Steel City with RHP Homer Bailey and RHP Jameson Taillon doing battle. The under is 9-3 in Bailey's past 12 starts on the road, while going 8-2-1 in his past 11 starts inside the National League Central Division. In addition, the under is 6-1 in Bailey's past seven assignments against teams with a losing overall mark. The under is the rule for Pittsburgh at home lately, too, cashing in nine of the past 10 games at PNC Park. The under is also 4-1 in their past five inside the division, while going 20-8 in the past 28 games overall. As far as Taillon is concerned, the over is 4-1 in the past five starts against teams with a losing record and 4-1 in his past five inside the division. However, the under is 10-2-2 in Bailey's past 14 against the Bucs, 5-1 in his past six starts in Pittsburgh and the under is 3-1-1 in Taillon's past five at home against the Reds and 4-1 in his past five overall against Cincinnati.

The Mets will 'wheel' out RHP Zack Wheeler to face the Dodgers and LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five for the Mets, while going 6-2-1 in their past nine tries against a southpaw. The under is also a perfect 5-0 in his past five outings against teams with a winning overall record. In addition, the under is 3-1-1 in his past five against NL West foes, too. While the over is 8-1-1 in L.A.'s past 10 at home against teams with a losing overall mark, the under is 6-1 in the past seven overall and 5-1 in their past six home games. For Ryu, the under is 7-1 in his past eight assignments at home and 4-1 in his past five starts overall. The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings at Chavez Ravine, however.

The Orioles and Mariners do battle in SoDo. Whilte the over has been the play recently for the Orioles, the under has been the play when Andrew Cashner is on the bump. The over is 5-2 in Baltimore's past seven overall, 5-2 in their past seven against the AL West and 15-5-1 in their past 21 following a victory. However, the under is 13-6 in Cashner's past 19 starts overall and 7-2 in his past nine when working on four days of rest. The over is 4-0 in Seattel's past four vs. RHP and 4-1 in their past five games overall. However, the under is 6-2 in Mike Leake's past eight starts. The over is 5-2 in his past seven against teams with a losing record, for which Baltimore certainly qualifies. The over is 5-2 in the past seven meetings between these two sides at Safeco Field, too.

Betting On The Wind
The Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Tallahassee is dealing with the aftermath from Tropical Storm Gordon, so it's a good thing there isn't any ballparks in that region. All of the weather trouble spots seem confined to that area, as most MLB venues have favorable weather in the forecast on Hump Day.

The only potential trouble spots will be in Chicago, as the Tigers and White Sox have a 40 percent chance of showers in the forecast for their game. The Giants and Rockies also have a 40 percent chance of showers for the first six innings, with the rain expected to taper off by 8pm MDT.

In Oakland, the Yankees and Athletics will be battling 11-14 mph winds out to the right-center field power alley, so watch that for the 'over'.

Thursday, Sept. 6
The Cubs and Nationals will go toe-to-toe in the series opener Thursday in D.C. This was supposed to be a potential playoff preview, and Chicago has held their end of the bargain up. But the Nats have struggled. Each team goes through a feeling out process in the first game of a new series, with the under 22-8 in the past 30 first games of a new series for Chicago, and 4-0 in the past four Game 1s for Washington. The under is als 7-1 in Kyle Hendricks' past eight against losing sides, while going 4-1 in his past five on the road. In addition, the under is 20-7 in the past 27 against NL East opponents. For the Nats, the over is 5-2 in their past seven overall heading into Wednesday, while going 9-3-1 in the past 13 home games. The over is also 9-4-1 in the past 14 at home against winning sides, and 5-2 in their past seven overall against winning teams.

Friday, Sept. 7
Cubs LHP Jon Lester takes the ball for the Cubbies, and while he has pitched well with quality starts in three of his past four outings, the 'over' is 3-0 in his past three starts, 6-1 over his past seven and 8-2 in the past 10 outings. The Cubs are averaging 7.7 runs per game on offense across his past three starts. The over is also 4-1 in his past five assignments on the road, and the over cashed the last time he faced the Nats on Aug. 11 in Chicago. 

Cardinals LHP Austin Gomber will head to the hill in interleague action against the Tigers, a rematch of the 2006 World Series. The southpaw has allowed a total of just five earned runs over his past 29 innings across the past five outings. The 'over' is 4-3 in his past seven outings, however, as the Cardinals have averaged 7.7 runs per game during the span.

Mariners LHP James Paxton will face the Yankees at Safeco. The southpaw was back Saturday fom the DL and he allowed three runs over five innings with 10 strikeouts in an 'over' result in Oakland. It was a rare one, as the 'under' is 7-3 across Paxton's past 10. The under has hit in four straight starts for Paxton at Safeco, too.

VegasInsider Staff

More from VegasInsider Staff