Ballpark Figures – Week 22

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

7 minute read

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Beer Battle

The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals will renew acquaintances at Busch Stadium II on Monday night, jockeying for positioning in the ultra-competitive National League Central Division. RHP Zach Davies and RHP Dakota Hudson will take the ball for their respective teams in this one. Surprisingly, these teams haven’t met since April 22-24 back in St. Louis when the Cardinals pulled off a three-game sweep, outscoring the Brew Crew by a 22-10 count. Davies pitched Game 2 of that series, a 4-3 victory over RHP Daniel Ponce De Leon. The ‘under’ connected in two of those three outings, too.

As far as Hudson is concerned, the Cardinals are 0-2 in his two outings this season against the Brewers, and St. Louis is just 5-5 in the first 10 meetings overall. Looking at the head-to-head results, there isn’t a lot to glean as far as lean. Hey, that matches! The ‘over’ is 5-4-1 in the first 10 battles this season between the two organizations. However, look to recent trends for both clubs to figure it out. Milwaukee is just 6-13 in the past 19 in Game 1 of a new series, and 1-6 in the past seven road games against a team with a winning overall mark. They’re also 4-12 in the past 16 starts by Davies against teams with a winning record, including 3-7 in his past 10 on the road against winning sides.

 As far as the Cards are concerned, they have cashed in four straight games at home while winning seven of the past nine games overall. They’re also 16-5 in the past 21 games inside the division, while hitting in seven of the past 10 in Game 1 of a new series. In addition, St. Louis has won eight of the past 11 at home vs. RHP, and they’re 5-2 in the past seven overall against righties.

The Cards are also happy to see Hudson toeing the slab, as they have gone 13-3 across his past 16 starts while cashing in five of his past six games overall. They’re also a perfect 4-0 across his past four outings against NL Central foes.

Total bettors will be interested to know that while the over is 6-1 in the past seven for Milwaukee, and 4-1 in his past five against winning teams, the under is 12-2 in Davies’ past 14 outings on the road against winning sides, while going 20-5-1 in his past 26 against teams with a winning overall mark. The under is also 33-15-3 in his past 51 starts overall, and 18-7-1 in the past 26 on the road while going 8-3-1 in the past 11 in Game 1 of a new set. For the Cards, the under 25-7 in the past 32 at Busch while going 7-2-2 in the past 11 inside the Central. The under has cashed in four of the past five outings for Hudson, while going 6-0 in his past six at home.

Looking Ahead

Monday, Aug. 19

The San Diego Padres square off with the Cincinnati Reds in the Queen City, and it’s a tremendous pitching matchup in the opener. LHP Eric Lauer will face RHP Trevor Bauer at Great American Ball Park in a battle of 58-65 clubs.

The Padres have managed to win just three of their past 13 in Game 1 of a new series, while going 5-11 in the past 16 on the road against teams with a losing record. They are 5-2 in the past seven starts by Lauer when working on five days of rest, but they’re 10-4 in the past 14 starts during Game 1 of a new series. They’re just 1-4 in his past five on the road against losing teams, too.

Cincinnati has managed just two victories across the past eight games overall, while winning jst once in the past five against southpaws. However, Cincinnati is an impressive 7-3 in the past 10 following a loss while going 6-1 in the past seven against losing teams. They also do not have a case of the Monday, going 4-1 in the past five on the day. Cincinnati has also won five of the past seven in this series, while the over is 7-1 in the past eight meetings at GABP, although the under is 4-0 in the past four in this series.

Weather Report

The weather forecast is brilliant for Monday. The winds will be light and variable at all outdoor MLB venues with small chance of precipitation. Enjoy the worry-free day.

Tuesday, Aug. 20

RHP Shane Bieber, the All-Star Game MVP, takes the ball from manager Terry Francona for Tuesday’s interleague series opener against LHP Steven Matz and the Mets.

Bieber has managed a 12-5 record, 3.27 ERA and .263 opponent on-base percentage with 200 strikeouts across 162 1/3 innings over 25 starts and one relief appearance this season. The Indians have cashed in seven of his past nine outings, and the ‘under’ is a perfect 5-0 over his past five outings while going 3-0-1 in his past four starts on the road. The Mets counter with Matz, who enters 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA and 109 strikeouts over 116 1/3 innings. While Matz has just so-so numbers overall, he is super at Citi Field. Matz is a perfect 5-0 with a 2.14 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP across 54 2/3 innings at home this season.

Cleveland is 7-1 over their past eight interleague road outings, and 16-5 in the past 21 road games overall. They’re also 17-5 in Bieber’s past 22 assignments away from home, while going 5-2 in the past seven road games vs. LHP. New York has ticked off 10 wins in the past 11 at home while going 7-1 in the past eight interleague battles, and they’re 22-5 in the past 27 vs. LHP while going 6-0 in the past six interleague games at home. However, they’re just 1-5 in Matz’s past six interleague assignments, and 1-5 in his past six against winning teams, too, while going 3-7 in his past 10 starts overall.

The lowly Detroit Tigers will face the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. New Astros pitcher RHP Aaron Sanchez will make his fourth start with the organization. After allowed just one earned run and three hits over 11 innings in his first two starts with the club he came crashing back to Earth last time out. Sanchez was smacked for six earned runs, seven hits and two walks while serving up four homers in Oakland on Aug. 15. The Astros are 2-1 across his first three starts with the organization.

The Tigers haven’t been as fortunate during RHP Spencer Turnbull’s turns in the rotation. Detroit is just 3-13 over his past 16 starts, 0-4 in his past four on the road and they’re 0-5 in his past five against winning teams while going 0-6 in his past six working on four days of rest. Detroit has also won a mere nine games across the past 51 against a right-handed starting pitcher while cashing in just 15 of the past 51 on the road. Houston is also a perfect 6-0 in the past six against Detroit, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings at the Juice Box.

Weather Report

For the second straight day it appears Mother Nature will cooperate with a lack of precipitation and light and variable winds which will not affect the flight of balls. If there is one trouble spot, it might be Baltimore, while the Royals and Orioles face a 25 percent chance of rain. Even that’s a pretty favorable forecast, however. The bigger concern in Charm City might be the feels-like temperature approaching triple digits.

VegasInsider Staff

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