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2020 HR Champion Best Bets

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

MLB Betting Odds – 2020 Home Run Champion Odds

The word “juice” has a multitude of meanings heading into the 2020 Major League Baseball season including picking who will reign as this year’s home run champion.  Certainly, players such as Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso, Mike Trout, and Joey Gallo bring plenty of juice with their MLB betting odds prices to hit the most home runs.  But the baseballs themselves were often associated with being “juiced” in a 2019 season that saw a sharp increase in home runs. 
 
A lot of players not normally associated with power hitting emerged with big numbers.  The best example is defending American League home run champion Jorge Soler of the Kansas City Royals.  Soler clobbered 48 round trippers last year after never totaling more than 12 in a season for his career.  Gamblers have quickly decided his performance was a fluke and are not expecting a repeat for 2020. 

2020 Home Run Champion Odds

Odds provided by FanDuel (IN, NJ, PA & WV only)
Odds Subject to Change (T&C's Apply, 21+)

Aaron Judge +900
Pete Alonso +950
Mike Trout +1200
Joey Gallo +1200
Ronald Acuna Jr +1400
Giancarlo Stanton +1400
Christian Yelich +1600
Cody Bellinger +1600
Eugenio Suarez +1600
Yordan Alvarez +1800
Nolan Arenado +1800
Alex Bregman +2200
Gleyber Torres +2200
Matt Olson +2200
Rhys Hoskins  +2500
Jorge Soler +2500
Trevor Story +2500
Bryce Harper +2800
Eloy Jimenez +3000
Khris Davis +3000
Vladimir Guerrero Jr +3000
JD Martinez +3500
George Springer +5000
Kris Bryant +5000

2020 Home Run Champion Odds Analysis

The Yankees Aaron Judge opened as an interesting favorite with the MLB betting odds to win the 2020 home run championship.  Much of this is based his monster 2017 season in which he was AL Rookie of the Year.  That and the fact that he plays for the most public of teams puts him on top of the board.  Eugenio Suarez of the Reds is a more understandable chalk after winning the 2019 home run title.  Meanwhile the aforementioned Soler is a +2500 longshot. 

Aaron Judge

In 2017 Judge exploded on the scene with 52 home runs to go with 114 runs batted in, a .627 slugging percentage, and 1.049 OPS.  It was his first full season in the Big Leagues.  The past two years Judge has played in only 112 and 102 games respectively.  His slugging percentage was .528 in 2018 and .540 for 2019.  By any reasonable standard Judge is overvalued if not an outright reach.  

Pete Alonso

Alonso has an eerily similar story to Judge.  He was the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year after hitting 53 home runs to go with 120 runs batted in and a slugging percentage of .583.  Asking Alonso to repeat as home run champion is probably too much to ask. Certainly, pitchers are going to adjust and there is always the possibility of the dreaded “sophomore jinx.”  Additionally, there is not enough of a track record to pay such an expensive price on a second-year player, regardless of how good he may be. 

Eugenio Suarez

Suarez makes better sense than Judge or Alonso based on a more complete track record.  Last year he hit a career best 49 home runs but had also hit 34 the season before that.  He is also on a Cincinnati Reds team that many believe could be primed for a 2020 breakout campaign.

Mike Trout

Trout has always been a consistent power hitter and was second in the American League for home runs last year with 45.  He also carries a name-brand price while playing for a big market team.  Trout has never won a home run title.

Joey Gallo

Texas Rangers star Joey Gallo may offer some strong betting value as a capable and proven power hitter.  Gallo hit 41 home runs in 2017 and 40 more in 2018.  He was limited to 70 games played last year yet posted the best slugging percentage of his career.  The new Globe Life Park in Arlington may also help pad his totals. 

Christian Yelich

This could be the best pick on the board when you combine price and ability.    The 2018 NL MVP hit 44 home runs last year despite missing 32 games.  This came on the heels of a 36-home run performance in 2018.  Add in the cozy confines of Miller Park and you have a potentially strong choice at a more favorable price.

MLB Betting Odds Prediction
Joey Gallo and Christian Yelich



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