Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
KBO & CPBL Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for Tuesday, June 16
It is the middle of June, and the MLB players and owners still cannot agree on terms for starting the 2020 season. Luckily, there is still live baseball being played in South Korea (KBO) and Taiwan (CPBL).
For tomorrow’s games, the CPBL moneyline and total odds are efficient for tomorrow, so I will be steering clear of the CPBL and only betting on KBO games.
For tomorrow’s games I am betting on a moneyline favorite, a run line, and a moneyline underdog.
Tuesday, June 16, 2020
CPBL - Taiwan
- Game2: 1
- Time: 6:35 a.m. ET
- Watch: LIVENow, Twitter
CTBC Brothers (-160) at Fubon Guardians (+130)
KBO - South Korea
Lotte Giants (+225) at Kiwoom Heroes (-280)
NC Dinos (-160) at Kia Tigers (+130)
Samsung Lions (+170) at Doosan Bears (-210)
LG Twins (-210) at Hanwha Eagles (+170)
KT Wiz (+130) at SK Wyverns (-160)
Tuesday's Play of the Day
Doosan Bears Moneyline -210 (William Hill)
Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 +100 (Bet on FoxBet)
For my breakfast baseball play of the day for tomorrow, I am betting on both the moneyline and the run line for the Doosan Bears in their matchup against the Samsung Lions. The Doosan Bears are currently in 3rd place in the KBO standings with a 21-14 record and if the season were to end today, they would make the playoffs. In contrast to the Doosan Bears, their opponents the Samsung Lions are 17-19 and are only 2 games out of the playoffs.
Despite being close to a .500 team, the Samsung Lions have overperformed this year and are worse than their record suggests. I believe that this series against the Doosan Bears will be the start of Samsung slump. Doosan has a large edge in tomorrow’s matchup against Samsung in both hitting and pitching and as a result, my model gives Doosan a 71.8% chance of winning tomorrow.
One of the best reasons to start fading the Samsung Lions is because of their lackluster offense. On paper Samsung does not appear to be that bad at hitting as they average 4.78 runs per game when the KBO average is 5.24 runs per game. However, this is misleading to look at when you consider that Samsung’s home stadium Daegu Samsung Lions Park is the most hitter friendly stadium in the KBO. Tomorrow’s game is an away game for Samsung at Doosan’s Jamsil Baseball Stadium.
While Samsung Lions Park is the most hitter friendly ballpark in the KBO, Jamsil Baseball Stadium is the least hitter friendly ballpark in the KBO. If Samsung were to field tomorrow’s lineup in a neutral stadium, they would have the 3rd worst lineup in the league behind only the Hanwha Eagles and the SK Wyverns. It is also working against Samsung’s favor that in their last 12 games, they only scored more than 5 runs only three times. In contrast to Samsung, Doosan is 2nd in the KBO with an average of 6.29 runs a game.
For Samsung to win they would have to perform better offensively than they have performed in recent history while playing in the least favorable stadium in the KBO.
Despite Samsung’s lack of offensive talent, they have been able to win a good amount of their games this year with solid starting pitching. However, the Samsung Lions can’t rely on their starting pitching alone in tomorrow’s game as they are using Starting Pitcher Jung-Hyun Baek who is 1-3 with a 7.20 ERA and a 6.48 FIP. Jung-Hyung Baek’s performance this year is a complete mystery as he was a solid pitcher in 2019 pitching 157 innings in 2019 with a 4.24 ERA, and a 4.90 FIP.
In contrast to Baek, Doosan is using Starting Pitcher Raul Alcantara who is 6-1 with a 4.59 ERA and a 4.31 FIP. While Alcantara has underperformed this year, he is a consistent starting pitcher who has pitched for 6 or more innings in 5 out of his 7 starts. With the ability to eat innings and pitch consistently, it is going to be hard for Samsung to take the lead at any point of the game.
With Doosan having a better hitting and pitching than Samsung, I not only see Doosan winning the game but winning it by a large margin. That is why I am betting on not only the Doosan Bears moneyline at -210 odds, but also the Doosan Bears -1.5 run line at even money odds.
KBO Underdog of the Day
KT Wiz +140 (William Hill)
Betting on the KT Wiz is a lot like riding a rollercoaster, in that it is just as terrifying to go down a rollercoaster as it is to watch the KT Wiz when they are ahead. The KT Wiz have the worst bullpen in the league, and one of the best lineups. As a result, the KT Wiz frequently jump to large leads that they end up giving up later in the game. Despite all of this, my model gives the KT Wiz a 53% chance of winning tomorrow’s game against the SK Wyverns suggesting that they should be the favorite rather than the underdog in tomorrow’s game. Both KT and SK have been disappointing this year as they are only separated by 1 game in the KBO Standings with subpar records. The KT Wiz have a 13-22 record, while the SK Wyverns have a 12-23 record.
Despite nearly identical records, the KT Wiz are a better team than the SK Wyverns. The biggest difference between the two teams is in their lineups as the SK Wyverns are second to last in the KBO with an average of 4.17 runs per game, while the KT Wiz average 5.74 runs. Not only has KT performed better offensively this year than SK, there is also a new addition to the KT Wiz lineup in 22-year old rookie Third Baseman Seong-Ho Chun who has a .364 batting average and a 150.4 wRC+. The only thing going for SK in tomorrow’s game is that they have better pitching than KT. The Starting Pitcher for SK is Ricardo Pinto who has a 3-2 record with a 3.76 ERA and a 4.29 FIP, while the Starting Pitcher for KT is Min-Soo Kim who has a 1-2 record with a 9.98 ERA and a 5.27 FIP. While a 9.98 ERA is beyond awful, it is not a good enough reason to bet against KT as Kim has only pitched 15.1 innings this year and his FIP is much lower than his ERA. While I think that Pinto is definitely a better pitcher than Kim, I do not believe that Pinto will be able to overcome KT’s lineup and that is why I am betting on the KT Wiz moneyline at +140 odds as my KBO underdog of the day.
Best Bets Tracker
- Doosan Bears Moneyline -210 (William Hill)
- Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 +100 (Bet on FoxBet)
- KT Wiz +140 (William Hill)