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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM

KBO Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for July 7

It is the beginning of July, and we are still without Major League Baseball. Luckily, we still have live baseball being played in South Korea (KBO), Japan (NPB), and Taiwan (CPBL).

While we must wait three weeks for the MLB season to start, we have a full slate of KBO baseball tomorrow. For tomorrow’s KBO slate I am backing two moneyline favorites, and two run lines.

Tuesday, July 7, 2020
Betting Schedule

KT Wiz (+110) at Kia Tigers (-140)
LG Twins (+100) at Doosan Bears (-130)
NC Dinos (-240) at SK Wyverns (+195)
Lotte Giants (-160) at Hanwha Eagles (+130)
Samsung Lions (-110) at Kiwoom Heroes (-120)

KBO Play of the Day
Doosan Bears -130 (Caesars)
Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 +150 (BetAmerica)

Tuesday’s nationally televised ESPN game features two teams from Seoul, South Korea in the Doosan Bears and the LG Twins. Both the LG Twins and the Doosan Bears play in the same ballpark Jamsil Baseball Stadium, so the LG Twins are only an “away team” on paper. The Doosan Bears are the defending 2019 Korean Series champion, and this year they are once again one of the best teams. Doosan is currently in 3rd place in the KBO standings with a 31-22 record and they are 5.5 games behind the 1st place NC Dinos. The Doosan Bears are loaded offensively, and they face off tomorrow against the LG Twins. Like Doosan, LG is also one of the best teams in the league this year as they are in 4th place with a 29-24 record. While the LG Twins are only 2 games behind the Doosan Bears in the KBO standings, the Doosan Bears are clearly the better team and they should be -170 moneyline favorites. That is why I am betting on the Doosan Bears moneyline at -130 odds and the -1.5 run-line at +150 odds.

The reason why the Doosan Bears are going to win by a large margin against the LG Twins is because of their hitting. The Doosan Bears are 2nd in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 6.17 runs per game. Of the 9 position players in the Doosan Bears projected lineup for tomorrow’s game, Center Fielder Soo-bin Jung is the only below-average offensive player as he only has a 80.2 wRC+ this season. The other 8 position players in the Doosan Bears have a wRC+ this season of at least 113.5. With such a well-rounded lineup, it is hard to imagine a scenario where the Doosan Bears do not produce many runs. In contrast to the Doosan Bears, the LG Twins are 5th in the KBO in runs per game with an average 5.47 runs per game. While the LG Twins are not bad offensively, they are nowhere near as good as the Doosan Bears.

While the Doosan Bears clearly have the best lineup for tomorrow’s game, they also have slightly better pitching for tomorrow’s game. Out of all 10 KBO teams, the Doosan Bears bullpen has the lowest FIP in the KBO with a FIP of only 4.52. In contrast to the Doosan Bears, the LG Twins bullpen has a 5.19 FIP. In tomorrow’s game bullpens will play a key role because the LG Twins starting pitcher Woo-Chan Cha has the proven ability to last 6 or more innings, while the Doosan Bears starting pitcher Young-Ha Lee does not.

Lee is not one of the best starting pitchers in the KBO as he is 2-4 with a 5.76 ERA, and a 4.51 FIP. In contrast to Lee is LG starting pitcher Woo-Chan Cha who has a 4-4 record with a 5.54 ERA and a 5.05 FIP. While both starting pitchers look nearly identical to each other on paper, Lee is performing slightly better this season than Cha as evidenced by his FIP. Based on the Doosan Bears having a much better lineup and slightly better pitching than the LG Twins, I am betting on the Doosan Bears moneyline at -130 odds and the -1.5 run line at +150 odds.

KBO Favorite to Back
NC Dinos Moneyline -240 (Bet365)
NC Dinos Run Line -1.5 -143 (FoxBet)

For the second favorite that I am backing for tomorrow’s slate I am betting on the NC Dinos to win outright against the SK Wyverns at -240 moneyline odds. Much of the time it is a bad idea to bet on any team to win at -240 moneyline odds, but the gap between both of these teams is so large that this a good bet. While the steep -240 moneyline odds on the NC Dinos imply that they only have a 70.6% chance of beating the SK Wyverns, my model gives the NC Dinos a 76.8% chance of winning. The NC Dinos are currently in 1st place in the KBO standings out of 10 teams with a 36-16 record, while the SK Wyverns are in 9th place with a 16-37 record. With the NC Dinos having much better hitting and pitching than the SK Wyverns, I am not only betting on the NC Dinos to win at -240 moneyline odds, but I am betting on the NC Dinos -1.5 run line at -143 odds.

The biggest reason why the NC Dinos are going to dominate the SK Wyverns is because the NC Dinos are using the best starting pitcher in the KBO Chang-Mo Koo. Of all KBO players, Koo has the second-highest WAR of any player with a WAR of 2.74. Chang-Mo Koo is undefeated this season as he has a 7-0 record with a 1.50 ERA, and a 2.39 FIP. When it comes to pitching for tomorrow’s game, the only vulnerability for the NC Dinos is that their bullpen has the highest FIP in the KBO with a FIP of 5.81. However, the SK Wyverns bullpen is not that much better than NC as they have a FIP of 5.30 FIP. While the starting pitcher for the SK Wyverns Seung-Won Moon is better than most of their rotation, he is clearly outmatched by Koo. Moon has a 2–4 record with a 3.25 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. While Moon is having a better season than most KBO starting pitchers, Koo is having the best season of all KBO starting pitchers. Even with Moon putting up strong numbers, he still has a losing record this year.

As far as hitting is concerned, the NC Dinos also have a lopsided advantage. Out of 10 KBO teams, the SK Wyverns are 9th in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 3.74 runs per game. In contrast to the SK Wyverns, the NC Dinos lead the KBO in runs per game with an average of 6.52 runs per game. This means that the NC Dinos on average score 2.78 more runs per game than the SK Wyverns. That is one of the reasons why betting on the NC Dinos -1.5 run-line at -143 odds is a good value. If the SK Wyverns can’t average more than 4 runs in average game, how are they supposed to score that amount of runs or more against the NC Dinos? Based on the lopsided advantage that the NC Dinos have in hitting and pitching over the SK Wyverns I am betting on the NC Dinos moneyline at -240 odds and the NC Dinos -1.5 run line at -143 odds.

Best Bets Tracker
Doosan Bears -130 (Caesars)
Doosan Bears Run Line -1.5 +150 (BetAmerica)
NC Dinos Moneyline -240 (Bet365)
NC Dinos Run Line -1.5 -143 (FoxBet)

Record: 21-23, -2.59 Units, -5.9% ROI



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