Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:53 PM
KBO Picks, Odds, Lines and Predictions for July 15
It is July 14th, and we are still without Major League Baseball. Luckily, we still have live baseball being played in South Korea (KBO), Japan (NPB), and Taiwan (CPBL).
I''ve already started handicapping the MLB season and you can get my Win Projections and top Win Totals picks for the upcoming shortened season.
While we must wait the MLB season to start in less than two weeks, we have a full slate of KBO baseball tomorrow.
For tomorrow’s KBO slate I am backing two moneyline bets, and a run line.
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
SK Wyverns (+195) at Doosan Bears (-250)
LG Twins (+100) at Lotte Giants (-129)
NC Dinos (+170) at Kiwoom Heroes (-220)
Kia Tigers (-134) at Samsung Lions (+106)
Hanwha Eagles (+180) at KT Wiz (-230)
KBO Play of the Day
KT Wiz Moneyline -230 (DraftKings)
KT Wiz Run Line -1.5 -118 (DraftKings)
For my KBO play of the day for tomorrow’s KBO slate, I am backing the heavily favored KT Wiz against the Hanwha Eagles. KT is currently in 7th place in the KBO standings out of 10 teams with a 30-29 record. Opposing the KT Wiz are the Hanwha Eagles who are in last place in the KBO standings with a 16-44 record.
The gap between KT and Hanwha is much bigger than the KT moneyline odds of -230 indicate. Yesterday, KT beat Hanwha 7-2, and I see no reason why that won’t happen again. That is why I am not only betting on the KT moneyline at -230 odds, but also the -1.5 run line at -118 odds as well.
The reason why the KT Wiz are going to win tomorrow’s game by a large margin is because of their hitting. KT currently ranks 3rd in the KBO in runs per game with an average of 5.98 runs per game.
Of the nine position players in KT’s projected lineup for tomorrow’s game, 7 out of 9 position players have a wRC+ of at least 110.5 this season. The KT lineup is the biggest reason why they have winning record this season, despite their pitching giving up the 3rd most runs of all KBO teams.
The Hanwha Eagles lineup on the other hand are the mirror opposite of the KT Wiz. Hanwha ranks last in the KBO in runs per game as they average only 3.53 runs per game. This means that in an average KBO game, KT scores 2.45 more runs per game than Hanwha.
For the -1.5 KT run line wager to cash tomorrow, KT needs to score only 2 runs more than Hanwha. Of the nine position players in the Hanwha projected lineup for tomorrow’s game, only Jin-haeng Choi has an wRC+ of at least 100 this season.
The Hanwha lineup is part of the reason why they have the worst run differential in the KBO as they have a -150 run differential this season. On average Hanwha loses each game by 2.5 runs. Based on that, betting on the KT -1.5 run line even at a -118 juice feels like a steal.
While Hanwha is last in the KBO in runs score per game, they are also last in runs allowed per game as they allow 6.03 runs per game. Yesterday’s 2-7 loss against KT was barely notable for Hanwha as they frequently lose games by that much of a margin. The KT bullpen has been KT’s Achilles Heel this season as they have a 5.46 FIP. But KT having a poor bullpen is not a problem for them as the Hanwha Eagles bullpen has a 5.39 FIP.
The starting pitcher for KT for tomorrow’s game is Min-Soo Kim who is 2-2 with a 5.73 ERA, and a 4.91 FIP. Opposing Min-Soo Kim is Hanwha Starting Pitcher Bum-Soo Kim who is 2-5 with a 3.95 ERA, and a 5.86 FIP. While Bum-Soo Kim appears to be much better than Min-Soo Kim based on ERA, Min-Soo Kim has a FIP that is almost a full run lower than Bum-Soo Kim’s FIP. With both teams having nearly equal pitching, I have a hard time seeing how Hanwha can sneak by with a win. That is why I am relying on KT’s edge in hitting in order to profit off a KT moneyline wager at -230 odds and a KT -1.5 run line bet at -118 odds.
KBO Underdog to Back
LG Twins Moneyline +100 Moneyline (DraftKings
For my KBO underdog of the day, I am betting on the LG Twins to beat the Lotte Giants as even money moneyline underdogs. This is because my model gives the LG Twins a 53.6% chance of winning when their even moneyline odds imply that they only have a 50% chance of winning. LG is currently in 5th place in the KBO standings with a 30-28 record.
Facing off against LG are the Lotte Giants who are in 8th place in the KBO standings with a 28-29 record. While Lotte is only 1.5 games behind LG in the KBO standings, LG is clearly a better team than their record indicates. That is why I am betting on the LG moneyline at +100 odds.
One reason why I believe LG should be favored is because of they have a slight edge in hitting. Out of all 10 KBO teams, LG is 5th in runs per game with an average of 5.29 runs per game. Lotte ranks near the bottom of the KBO in runs per game as they are 8th in the league with an average of 4.82 runs per game.
While LG only averages only .47 more runs per game than Lotte, it is notable because LG plays their home games at Jamsil Baseball Stadium. Out of all 9 KBO ballparks, Jamsil is the most pitcher friendly ballpark out of all KBO ballparks. The LG Twins lineup is led by OF Roberto Ramos Jr. who has a .321 batting average, .404 on-base percentage, 16 home runs, and a 160 wRC+ in 54 games this season. In comparison to LG, the Lotte Giants do not have a single position player that is having as good of a season as Ramos. With LG having a slight edge in hitting, Lotte is at a disadvantage because LG has better starting pitching for tomorrow’s game.
While LG has a slightly better lineup for tomorrow’s game, the best reason to bet on the LG Twins moneyline is because of their starting pitching. The Starting Pitcher for the LG Twins is Tyler Wilson who is 3-5 with a 4.48 ERA, and a 4.23 FIP. Tyler Wilson is having a down year compared to last season where he was 14-7 with a 2.92 ERA, and a 3.24 FIP. However, one of Wilson strengths is the ability to pitch many innings as he has pitched for at least 6 innings in 8 out of his 11 starts this season.
This is a sharp contrast to Lotte Starting Pitcher Adrian Sampson who has only pitched for 6 or more innings in only two of his eight starts this season. In addition to Sampson not being able to pitch for that long, he is also not that good of a pitcher. In 8 starts this season, Adrian Sampson is 3-5 with a 5.44 ERA, and a 4.48 FIP. I recommend the LG Twins Moneyline at even money odds based on Adrian Sampson’s poor performance this year, and LG having a slightly better lineup.