Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM

Games to Watch - Wednesday

This Wednesday, we have five nationally televised games on FS1, ESPN and the MLB Network. Of those five games, I have two bets that are really like.

For the first game beginning at 6:40PM, the Cincinnati Reds host the Kansas City Royals. In that matchup I like the Reds as -118 moneyline favorites. For the late-night game at 9:40PM, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the San Diego Padres. In that matchup I like the Dodgers as -162 moneyline favorites.

Royals at Reds Betting Picks & Prediction

Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: FS1

Royals at Reds Odds

  • Kansas City Royals (+105)
  • Cincinnati Reds (-118)
  • Run Total 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

Probable Pitchers (2020 Records)

  • Brad Keller RHP (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
  • Wade Miley LHP (1-0, 27.00 ERA)

The Cincinnati Reds host the Kansas City Royals in a game where they should be heavily favored. Currently the Royals have a 7-11 record, while the Reds are 8-9. Even though the Reds have a slightly better record than the Royals, they are underperforming this year. After an active offseason, the Reds built a roster that is supposed to contend for the NL Central Division championship.

The Royals are a team full of either inexperienced young players or veterans at the end of their career. Both teams have been hot over the last few games, but I believe that the Royals hot streak is a fluke while the Reds are the real deal. That is why I am betting on the Reds moneyline at -118 odds.

The starting pitcher for the Reds is Wade Miley who in only one start this season performed poorly. In his only start on July 27 against the Chicago Cubs, Miley gave up five earned runs in only 1.2 innings. This is a great opportunity for bettors to bet on the Reds because the betting public and oddsmakers are overreacting to one start. Last season, Miley had a 14-6 record and a 3.98 for the Houston Astros. He may not be a front of the rotation starter, but he is a dependable pitcher who the Reds can rely on for five innings to give up only one to two earned runs. Facing off against Miley is Royals' starting pitcher Brad Keller who in only one start this season pitched five scoreless innings. While Keller is a solid pitcher, he will be able to contain the Reds lineup.

The Reds more than any team should benefit from the National League having a DH this season. More than virtually any NL team except the Los Angeles Dodgers they have a glut of offensive talent. Currently the Reds lineup only averages 4.29 runs per game, but I think they eventually average 5.51 runs per game. In a lineup where eight out of nine players are above average offensively, the Reds have underperformed and that is why you can bet on the Reds at only -118 moneyline odds tonight. The Royals lineup does not have much depth, and I think Miley can keep them at bay.

Kansas City at Cincinnati
MLB Best Bet & Predictions

Best Bet:
Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -118

Final Score Predictions:
Cincinnati Reds 5, Kansas City Royals 3

Padres at Dodgers Betting Picks & Prediction

Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Channel: MLB Network

Padres at Dodgers Odds

  • San Diego Padres (+140)
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (-162)
  • Run Total 9 (Over -110, Under -110)

Probable Pitchers (2020 Records)

  • Zach Davies RHP (2-1, 2.87 ERA)
  • Tony Gonsolin RHP (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

For a late-night nationally televised game, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the upstart San Diego Padres. Currently both teams are tied for second place in the NL West with 11-7 records.

Despite nearly equal records, the consensus is that the Dodgers are a better team. The Padres may have exciting players, but they are a year or two away from competing with the Dodgers. Based on the Dodgers having a better lineup and starting pitching for Wednesday night’s matchup, I am betting on Los Angeles to win as -162 moneyline favorites.

Padres pitcher Zach Davies is one of my favorite pitchers to bet against. Tonight’s game is a great opportunity to bet against Davies because he currently has a 2-1 record and a 2.87 ERA after only three starts. Despite getting off to a good start this season, I think it is highly unlikely that Davies continues pitching this well. Last season despite having a 3.56 ERA, Davies had a 5.20 xFIP. This season despite having a 2.87 ERA, Davies has a 4.17 xFIP. This suggests that Davies has been lucky over the past two seasons and he is bound for a regression. I think the Dodgers lineup is going to take advantage of Davies.

Pitching for the Dodgers tonight is Tony Gonsolin who is a largely unproven pitcher. If the Dodgers were using one of their star pitchers, then they would be -220 moneyline favorites. As a bettor you are only going to be able to be on popular teams like the Dodgers when the choice is not obvious. In Gonsolin’s only start this season, Gonsolin pitched four scoreless innings giving up only one hit and one walk. I think Gonsolin pitches five innings in this matchup giving up only one earned run.

Besides the Dodgers having an edge in starting pitching, another reason why I think they win is because of their lineup. Currently both the Padres and the Dodgers lineups average around five runs per game. However, in my opinion the Dodgers lineup is a better long term bet to perform well. Outside of Fernando Tatis Jr., Tommy Pham, and Manny Machado, the Padres lineup is relatively mediocre. In contrast, the Dodgers have a lineup containing Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, and above-average talent. Even if Davies can pitch around Bellinger and Betts, there are too many weapons in the Dodgers lineup for him to avoid. That is why I like the Dodgers to beat the Padres at -163 moneyline odds.

San Diego at Los Angeles
MLB Best Bet & Predictions

Best Bet:
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline -162

Final Score Prediction:
Los Angeles Dodgers 6, San Diego Padres 3

Best Bets Tracker

Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -118
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline -162

How do I handicap my MLB Best Bets?

My MLB handicapping model is based on the baseball pythagorean theorem where you can predict a team's winning percentage based on how many runs they score and allow over the course of the season.

I make projections on how many runs each player scores or allows for how that team's projected roster for that day would do over the course of a full season.

Once I have a projected winning percentage for both teams, I have a formula I use to determine each team's probability of winning. For example, I calculate what percentage of games a .500 team wins against a .400 win team.

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