Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

October 11, 2021

Jonathan Willis
MLB Expert
VegasInsider.com

Game 4 of the ALDS sees the Chicago White Sox host the Houston Astros after winning Game 3 and now down 1-2 in the series. Opening pitch is set for 3:37 p.m. ET and will air on FS1 from Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago, Illinois.

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Game 4 Predictions

The Chicago White Sox came through in a must-win situation in Game 3. Chicago’s hopes looked bleak after falling behind the Houston Astros 5-1 in the third inning, but the South Siders rallied with eight runs in their half of the third and fourth innings to pick up a 12-6 victory and force a Game 4. Their bats finally got going, and they can’t afford to let up on Monday.

The home crowd will be happy that Carlos Rodon is on the mound for Game 4. Rodon was the team’s most effective pitcher in the regular season, but he has been dealing with a sore left arm. Opponents have hit just .170 against Rodon at home this season, so the Astros’ bats will likely be kept in check for as long as Rodon can throw.

Score Prediction: White Sox 7, Astros 5

Best Bet: White Sox ML

Best Bet: Over 8.5

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Game 4 Betting Odds

The Houston Astros have gone OVER the run total in five of their last six games. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Game 4 Betting Resources

• Matchup: AL West vs. AL Central
• Date: Monday, October 11, 2021
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Location: Chicago, Illinois
• TV-Time: FS1 - 3:37 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report

Inside the Stats - Houston Astros

• Record: 97-68
• Run Line: 79-86
• O/U: 88-69-8
• Runs: 863 (1st)
• Batting Average: .267 (1st)
• On Base Percentage: .339 (1st)
• ERA: 3.76 (7th)
• WHIP: 1.23 (8th)

Inside the Stats - Chicago White Sox

• Record: 94-71
• Run Line: 82-83
• O/U: 75-83-7
• Runs: 796 (7th)
• Batting Average: .256 (5th)
• On Base Percentage: .336 (3rd)
• ERA: 3.73 (5th)
• WHIP: 1.20 (5th)

Key Players to Watch

• HOU: Yordan Alvarez - LF (.277 avg, 33 HRs, 104 RBIs)
• HOU: Kyle Tucker - RF (.294 avg, 30 HRs, 92 RBIs)
• CWS: Tim Anderson - SS (.309 avg, 17 HRs, 61 RBIs)
• CWS: Jose Abreu - 1B (.261 avg, 30 HRs, 117 RBIs)

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Game 4 Probable Pitchers

HOU: Jose Urquidy - RHP (8-3, 3.62 ERA, 90 Ks, 0.99 WHIP)

CWS: Carlos Rodon - LHP (13-5, 2.37 ERA, 185 Ks, 0.96 WHIP)

The favorite has covered the run line in five straight meetings between the White Sox and the Astros. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Game 4 Betting Analysis

Rodon is 13-5 for the White Sox this season. He leads the rotation with a 12.6 K/9, and his 0.96 WHIP and 2.37 ERA are also tops on the team.

There are legitimate concerns over just how much Rodon can pitch in the postseason. He has yet to throw more than 165 innings in his seven-year career, and he is coming off his best season as a pro. The White Sox have been sparing with him over the last two months, and he has not thrown more than five innings in a start since a seven-inning gem in a 4-0 win over Houston back on July 18.

Chicago’s lineup finally started hitting on Sunday night. Luis Robert, Tim Anderson, and Jose Abreu were sharp in the first two games, but everyone got going in Game 3. The White Sox didn’t have a single extra-base hit in the first two games of this series, and Leury Garcia had a double and a home run, Yasmani Grandal went yard, and Andrew Vaughn came off the bench to hit a double.

This is a very dangerous lineup when everything is clicking. Five different players had multi-hit games on Sunday, and both Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada were among them. They should keep raking on Monday.

Jose Urquidy will start for the Astros. Urquidy was solid in the regular season with an 8-3 record and a 0.99 WHIP to go with a 3.62 ERA. He did pick up a win against the White Sox in the regular season, but his numbers got worse as the season progressed.

Urquidy posted a 4.05 ERA in June before being shut down for two months due to injury. He finished with a 4.25 ERA in September and October, and he has given up two earned runs or more in five of his last six starts. Additionally, Urquidy has allowed five home runs in his last three outings.

Kyle Tucker has been very good in this series. Tucker had a great 2021 campaign and was one of Houston’s best players. He had a home run and a double on Sunday, and he knocked in four of Houston’s six runs.

The Astros continued to get good play out of Jose Altuve too. Altuve has now reached base six times in three games. He has taken four walks, showcasing his elite batting eye.

Yuli Gurriel is not having a good postseason. La Piña is just 1-12 with five strikeouts at the plate to this point. Dusty Baker has dropped him to seventh in the batting order, and the absence of his power has hurt the efficacy of this offense.

Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Game 4 Betting Trends

• Houston has won seven straight playoff games when facing the AL Central during the daytime.
• Houston has led after three innings in seven straight games when facing a team with a winning record on a Monday.
• Michael Brantley has seen a hit in 14 straight playoff games.
• Tim Anderson has hit a HR in two of his last three home games when facing Houston.

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