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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds, Preview


October 18, 2021
Jonathan Willis
MLB Expert

Game 3 of the ALCS is set for Monday night as the Houston Astros visit the Boston Red Sox. First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET and will air on FS1 from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Predictions

Boston used two grand slams in the first two innings to take an insurmountable lead on Houston in Game 2. The Red Sox put it in cruise control and ended up beating the Astros 9-5 thanks to the bombs from Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez. They are out to take a 2-1 series lead on Monday night at Fenway Park, but Eduardo Rodriguez has not pitched well at home.

Houston’s hitters should be able to tee off against Rodriguez in Game 3. The Astros have the best one-to-nine lineup in baseball, and they can make mediocre pitchers pay in a big way. Jose Urquidy won’t be great, but he will be good enough to get Houston the win.

Score Prediction

Astros 7, Red Sox 4

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Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Odds

Game odds provided by DraftKings - subject to change

  • Astros +105
  • Red Sox -125
  • Astros +1.5 (-180)
  • Red Sox -1.5 (+155)
  • Over 9 -115
  • Under 9 -105

The Houston Astros have won four straight games after losing the game prior. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AL Central vs. AL East
  • Date: Monday, October 18, 2021
  • Venue: Fenway Park
  • Location: Boston, Massachusetts
  • TV-Time: FS1 - 8:08 p.m. ET

Inside the Stats - Boston Red Sox

  • Record: 97-72
  • Run Line: 90-79
  • O/U: 80-85-4
  • Runs: 829 (5th)
  • Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
  • On Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
  • ERA: 4.26 (15th)
  • WHIP: 1.38 (23rd)

Inside the Stats - Houston Astros

  • Record: 99-69
  • Run Line: 80-88
  • O/U: 91-69-8
  • Runs: 863 (1st)
  • Batting Average: .267 (1st)
  • On Base Percentage: .339 (1st)
  • ERA: 3.76 (7th)
  • WHIP: 1.23 (8th)

Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B (.279 avg, 38 HR, 113 RBI)
  • BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS (.295 avg, 23 HR, 79 RBI)
  • HOU: Yordan Alvarez - DH (.277 avg, 33 HR, 104 RBI)
  • HOU: Jose Altuve - 2B (.277 avg, 31 HR, 83 RBI)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Probable Pitchers

BOS: Jose Urquidy - RHP (8-3, 3.62 ERA, 90 K, 0.99 WHIP)

HOU: Eduardo Rodriguez - LHP (13-8, 4.74 ERA, 185 K, 1.39 WHIP)

The Boston Red Sox have covered the run line in three straight games when facing the Houston Astros. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Analysis

Rodriguez was not good at home during the regular season. In 62 innings at Fenway Park, opposing hitters batted .282 against him, and he posted a 5.95 ERA. He wasn’t great in his first start of the playoffs, allowing two hits, two walks, and two earned runs in 1.2 innings, but he was decent over five innings last Monday.

Rodriguez was rocked in his two starts against Houston in the regular season. He allowed 13 hits, five walks, and a whopping 12 earned runs over 9.1 innings. It’s hard having faith in him here, and the Astros should be able to chase him early.

Boston’s bullpen has not been reliable this season. Additionally, the Red Sox used their best reliever (Garrett Whitlock) for two innings in Game 2. That will put them at a disadvantage in Game 3.

The Red Sox are hitting well this postseason though. As a team, Boston has a .318 batting average and a .925 OPS.

Enrique Hernandez is thriving in the postseason. Hernandez has a whopping five home runs, and he is currently carrying a 1.608 OPS. He had just one hit in his first two games this postseason, but he has been absurd over the last five games.

Devers and Martinez both have OPS numbers over 1.0 thanks to their home runs in Game 2, and Alex Verdugo and Xander Bogaerts are playing well too. The only expected contributor that has struggled somewhat is Hunter Renfroe.

Houston will send Jose Urquidy to the mound in Game 3. Urquidy was solid in his one start against Boston in the regular season, allowing four baserunners and one earned run over six innings.

He didn’t throw against the White Sox in the ALDS, but he was pretty reliable for the Astros in the regular season. Urquidy posted a 0.99 WHIP with a 3.62 ERA, and he was a little unfortunate to allow so many runs given his low walk rate.

Urquidy doesn’t need to be elite for Houston to win this game. The Astros have some great hitters that should rake against Rodriguez and this bullpen.

Carlos Correa could be primed for a big game on Monday. Correa has been Houston’s best hitter in the postseason with a .429 batting average and a 1.187 OPS. Right-handed hitters have raked against Rodriguez, so he might have an extra base hit or two.

That bodes well for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman too. Altuve has a .970 OPS and has already drawn five walks this postseason, while Bregman is hitting .333 through six games.

Kyle Tucker is going to be a difference maker for the Astros too. Tucker leads the team in total bases this postseason, and he has as many steals (three) as the rest of his team combined.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Trends

  • Boston has lost seven straight home games when facing Houston after winning the game prior.
  • Houston has won the first inning in five straight road games when playing on a Monday.
  • Boston has gone OVER the run total in seven straight games when facing the AL West.

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