Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds, Preview

October 19, 2021

Jonathan Willis
MLB Expert
VegasInsider.com

Game 4 of the ALCS is set for Tuesday night as the Houston Astros take on the Boston Red Sox. First pitch is set for 8:08 p.m. ET and will air on FS1 from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Predictions

The Boston Red Sox continue to light up the scoreboard in the postseason. They have scored at least six runs in six of their eight playoff games, and that has given Boston a 2-1 series lead over Houston in the ALCS.

Boston has exploded in the first three innings in its last two games against the Houston Astros, taking an 8-0 lead into the third inning in Game 2 and a 9-0 lead into the fourth inning in Game 3. Veteran Zack Greinke will look to put a stop to that on Tuesday.

Score Prediction

Astros 9, Red Sox 2

Best Bets

Over 10

Astros +105

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Odds

Game odds provided by DraftKings - subject to change

• Astros +105
• Red Sox -125
• Astros (+1.5) -180
• Red Sox (-1.5) +155
• Over (10) +100
• Under (10) -120

Zack Greinke takes the mound tonight for the Astros as they look to even up the ALCS at 2-2 with the Red Sox. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Resources

• Matchup: AL Central vs. AL East
• Date: Tuesday, October 19, 2021
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Location: Boston, Massachusetts
• TV-Time: FS1 - 8:08 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report

Inside the Stats - Boston Red Sox

• Record: 98-72
• Run Line: 91-79
• O/U: 81-85-4
• Runs: 829 (5th)
• Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
• On Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
• ERA: 4.26 (15th)
• WHIP: 1.38 (23rd)

Inside the Stats - Houston Astros

• Record: 99-70
• Run Line: 80-89
• O/U: 92-69-8
• Runs: 863 (1st)
• Batting Average: .267 (1st)
• On Base Percentage: .339 (1st)
• ERA: 3.76 (7th)
• WHIP: 1.23 (8th)

Key Players to Watch

• BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B (.279 avg, 38 HR, 113 RBI)
• BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS (.295 avg, 23 HR, 79 RBI)
• HOU: Yordan Alvarez - DH (.277 avg, 33 HR, 104 RBI)
• HOU: Jose Altuve - 2B (.277 avg, 31 HR, 83 RBI)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Probable Pitchers

HOU: Zack Greinke - RHP (11-6, 4.13 ERA, 120 K, 1.17 WHIP)

BOS: Nick Pivetta - RHP (10-8, 4.45 ERA, 175 K, 1.30 WHIP)

The Red Sox have hit three grand slams in the last two wins against the Astros, including one from Kyle Schwarber in Game 3. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Analysis

Zack Greinke pitched just one inning in the ALDS against Chicago. Houston wanted to give the soon-to-be 38-year-old some rest as he was rocked in his last four starts. He gave up 20 earned runs in 15.1 innings despite playing lowly teams like Texas (twice) and Arizona, making it clear that he needed a break.

Greinke was solid through the first five months of the season though. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA each month from April to August even though he no longer racks up the same strikeout numbers he did in his prime.

Houston’s bats went cold in Game 3, and the Astros can’t afford for that to happen again in Game 4 on Tuesday night in Boston. Kyle Tucker’s three-run home run in the fourth inning provided the team with their only scoring, and Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa combined to go 0-12 at the plate.

Tucker has been great this postseason with three home runs in seven games for the Astros. He boasts an OPS north of 1.0, as he continues to follow up on the best season of his career. Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel have been struggling, but Gurriel might finally get going after hitting safely twice on Monday.

Boston will send Nick Pivetta to the bump for this pivotal Game 4. If Pivetta picks up the win, it’s going to be hard for Houston to come back in this series. He was not good against Tampa Bay in Game 1 of the ALDS, but he helped lead the Red Sox to a 13-inning win three days later in Game 3.

Pivetta made one start against Houston this season. He was sharp with nine strikeouts in six innings, but he picked up the loss despite allowing just three hits and two earned runs.

It’s hard to pick out just one person to highlight on Boston’s offense. The Red Sox are crushing the ball as a team. Kyle Schwarber came through with a grand slam in Game 3, and Christian Arroyo, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers also hit long balls.

Enrique Hernandez continued his torrid pace with another two hits against the Astros on Monday. Only a couple Red Sox hitters are underperforming though. Hunter Renfroe isn’t performing well at the plate, and Bobby Dalbec is now 0-11.

The Red Sox offensive production is simply unsustainable. Boston has six hitters with an OPS over .900 this postseason, but the only player with an OPS over .900 in the regular season was Schwarber. In fact, only five hitters had an OPS north of .800, so it’s only a matter of time.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 4 Betting Trends

• The Red Sox are 8-4 in Nick Pivetta's last 12 home starts
• The Astros are 1-4 in Zack Greinke's last five road starts