Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

October 20, 2021

Jonathan Willis
MLB Expert
VegasInsider.com

Game 45of the ALCS is set for Wednesday night as the Houston Astros take on the Boston Red Sox. First pitch is set for 5:08 p.m. ET and will air on FS1 from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Predictions

The ALCS is now guaranteed to return to Houston after the Astros overcame a late 2-1 deficit to beat the Boston Red Sox 9-2 in Fenway Park in Game 4 on Tuesday night.

Umpire Laz Diaz somewhat overshadowed the proceedings with one of the worst games you will see behind the plate. A missed strike three call helped spark a seven-run ninth inning for the Astros to even the series, and Diaz ended up missing almost two dozen pitches on the evening.

Boston is favored to shake off that tough loss in Game 5 on Wednesday afternoon, as the Red Sox rocked Framber Valdez in Game 1 last Friday.

Score Prediction

Red Sox 5, Astros 3

The Red Sox were due for a bad offensive outing, but Boston will do enough at the plate to take a 3-2 series lead heading back to the Lone Star State this weekend.

Best Bets

Under 9.5

Red Sox (-120)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Betting Odds

Game odds provided by DraftKings - subject to change

• Astros +100
• Red Sox -120
• Astros (+1.5) -180
• Red Sox (-1.5) +155
• Over (9.5) -110
• Under (9.5) -110

Chris Sale and the Red Sox look to bounce back as they face the Astros in a pivotal Game 5 of the ALCS. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Betting Resources

• Matchup: AL West vs. AL East
• Date: Wednesday, October 20, 2021
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Location: Boston, Massachusetts
• TV-Time: FS1 - 5:08 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report

Inside the Stats - Boston Red Sox

• Record: 98-73
• Run Line: 91-80
• O/U: 82-85-4
• Runs: 829 (5th)
• Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
• On Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
• ERA: 4.26 (15th)
• WHIP: 1.38 (23rd)

Inside the Stats - Houston Astros

• Record: 100-70
• Run Line: 81-89
• O/U: 93-69-8
• Runs: 863 (1st)
• Batting Average: .267 (1st)
• On Base Percentage: .339 (1st)
• ERA: 3.76 (7th)
• WHIP: 1.23 (8th)

Key Players to Watch

• BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B (.279 avg, 38 HR, 113 RBI)
• BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS (.295 avg, 23 HR, 79 RBI)
• HOU: Yordan Alvarez - DH (.277 avg, 33 HR, 104 RBI)
• HOU: Jose Altuve - 2B (.277 avg, 31 HR, 83 RBI)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Probable Pitchers

HOU: Framber Valdez - LHP (11-6, 3.14 ERA, 125 K, 1.25 WHIP)

BOS: Chris Sale - LHP (5-1, 3.16 ERA, 52 K, 1.34 WHIP)

The Astros scored seven runs in the ninth inning of Tuesday's 9-2 victory over the Red Sox. (AP)

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Betting Analysis

Chris Sale will get the start for Boston. Sale allowed just one run against the Astros in Game 1, but he continually got himself into trouble in that outing. He allowed six base runners in 2.2 innings, putting the onus on Boston’s bullpen to throw more than five frames.

Sale missed most of the past two seasons recovering from Tommy John surgery. He largely looked like his old self upon his return, but he was not great in his final three regular season outings and has been shelled in the playoffs. His stuff hasn’t been that bad though, so Sale should have a decent start on Wednesday.

Boston’s hitters didn’t have much success in Game 4. The Red Sox had just five hits, and they failed to score after a two-run jack from Xander Bogaerts in the first inning. They did show patience at the plate though, drawing seven walks, and that bodes well for a better showing.

Enrique Hernandez is still the star of the postseason with 19 hits in 41 at-bats. Hernandez has five home runs for a 1.404 OPS, and he is one of three Boston batters with an OPS over 1.

Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, and J.D. Martinez are the other three players that are tearing the cover off the ball for the Red Sox. Kyle Schwarber and Alex Verdugo are hitting well too, as Boston has a team OPS of .909.

The Astros are hoping that Framber Valdez can give them a good start on Wednesday. Valdez was not good in his last regular season start though, and he has come apart in his two playoff appearances. Houston won both of those games, but Valdez has allowed 17 base runners in seven innings, and he is a little lucky to have surrendered just six earned runs.

Houston is hitting .277 as a team this postseason. Carlos Correa has been the best everyday hitter and is the only Astros player with an OPS over 1.0. Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker are the only players with multiple home runs in these playoffs, as Houston hasn’t had the same long ball ability as Boston.

That might lead to the Astros taking more chances on the base paths in Game 5. Houston has more speed than it has shown this postseason, as Tucker is the only player with more than one stolen bag.

This team was fortunate to comeback in Game 4. The Astros had just four hits through the first seven innings until Boston’s bullpen imploded with a little help from the umpire. The Red Sox relievers won’t be as charitable here.

Houston Astros vs. Boston Red Sox Game 5 Betting Trends

• Boston is 4-1 to the Over in Chris Sale's last five starts
• Houston is 6-1 to the Over in Framber Valdez's last seven starts

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