New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks, Predictions, Odds

The New York Mets (3-1) will be on the road to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (2-1) in a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FS1.  

Score Prediction

Philadelphia 4, New York 3 

Best Bets 

• Under 9.5 (-115) at DraftKings
• Phillies ML (-145) at DraftKings

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Predictions

The Mets are coming off a four-game series with the Nationals. New York won the first three but lost the most recent game on Sunday 4-2. The Mets had seven hits on the day, but struggled to bring home runners, going 1-8 with runners in scoring position. Starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco had a strong outing, allowing just two-hits and one earned run in 5.2 innings of work. Right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker is expected to get the start on Monday. Walker was 7-11 last season with an ERA of 4.47 and had 146 strikeouts in 159.0 innings pitched. In five games against the Phillies last year, Walker allowed 11 runs in 26.1 innings.  

The Phillies enter this matchup 2-1 after a three-game series with Oakland. Philadelphia won the first two but lost in the third game 4-1. The Phillies could not get the bats going with just three total hits on the day. Starting pitcher Zach Eflin lasted four innings and gave up zero runs and just two hits. The leftie, Ranger Suarez is scheduled to take the mound for the Phillies on Monday. Suarez was 8-5 last season with an ERA of 1.36 and had 107 strikeouts in 106 innings pitched. In three games against the Mets last season Suarez allowed one earned run in 3.5 innings pitched.  

Last season Philadelphia went 10-9 against the Mets. The Phillies had won six straight at one point against New York, but the Mets did take the final game of the season. In the first matchup of the season between these teams, I like the under 9 runs. They have a combined O/U record of 2-5 on the season and I think that Ranger Suarez should be able to do a good job of keeping the Mets bats at bay. I also like the Phillies moneyline here as they have won 7 of their last 9 at home.  

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds

• Mets +125
• Phillies -145
• Mets +1.5 (-145)
• Phillies -1.5 (+125)
• Over 9.5 (-105)
• Under 9.5 (-115)

More Odds | Futures Odds

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Resources

• Date: Monday, April 11, 2022
• Matchup: NL East
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
• Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• TV-Time: FS1 - 6:45 p.m. ET

New York Mets Betting Analysis

• SU: 3-1
• RL: 3-1
• O/U: 1-3

After completing their first series of the season the Mets are now 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, and have an O/U record of 1-3. Going back to last season the total has now gone under in seven of New York’s last 10 games and 10 of their last 14 road games. This is the first game of the season that the Mets will not be playing as favorites.  

The Mets have started the season hitting the ball better than any team in baseball with a team average of .318. New York also has the league's best on base percentage at .425 and have scored the 2nd most runs with 17 total thus far. Left fielder Mark Canha has been on fire with a .700 batting average (7-10). The Mets have done a decent job with runners in scoring position, batting 11-43, but that number can always improve.  

New York’s pitchers are currently tied for the 3rd best ERA in the league at 2.0. The Mets sent three different guys to the mound in their most recent game against Washington. Starter Carlos Carrasco lasted 5.2 innings and allowed one run and two hits. The other two pitchers allowed three hits and three total runs. Tajiuan Walker is expected to get the start Monday. Walker was 7-11 last season with an ERA of 4.47 and had 146 strikeouts in 159.0 innings pitched. In five games against the Phillies last year, Walker allowed 11 runs in 26.1 innings. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Analysis

• SU: 2-1
• RL: 2-1
• O/U: 1-2

After wrapping up their series with Oakland the Phillies are now 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, and have an O/U record of 1-2.  Going back to last season, the total has gone under in eight of Philadelphia’s last 11 games. The Phillies have been strong at home, going 7-2 in their last nine home games.  

The Phillies have started off the season hitting the ball fairly well, tied for 10th in the MLB with a team average of .231. Philadelphia is tied for 5th in the MLB in total runs scored with 14 on the season. First baseman Rhys Hoskins had a great first series with a batting average of .444, 1 HR, and 3 RBI’s. Philadelphia was 6-11 the first game with runners in scoring position, but have struggled since, going 0-8 in their last two games.  

Philadelphia’s pitchers have allowed 11 total runs this season. The Phillies sent four pitchers out to the mound during Sunday’s game. Starting pitcher Zach Eflin lasted four innings and allowed two hits and zero earned runs. The other three pitchers allowed seven hits and four earned runs in 4.3 innings of work. Ranger Suarez is scheduled to start for the Phillies Monday. Suarez was 8-5 last season with an ERA of 1.36 and had 107 strikeouts in 106 innings pitched. In three games against the Mets last season Suarez allowed one earned run in 3.5 innings pitched. 

Key Players to Watch

• NYM: Francisco Lindor - SS (Last Game: 1-3, HR, R, RBI, BB)
• NYM: Pete Alonso - 1B (Last Game: 0-4, K)
• PHI: Bryce Harper - OF (Last Game: 0-4, 2 K)
• PHI: Nick Castellanos - OF (Last Game: 0-4, K)

Probable Pitchers

• NYM: Taijuan Walker - RHP - (7-11, 4.47 ERA, 146 K, 1.18 WHIP)
• PHI: Ranger Suarez - LHP (4 SV, 1.36 ERA, 107 K, 1.00 WHIP)

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Conclusion

Both team's offenses slowed down on Sunday afternoon and I think that trend will continue on Monday with Suarez and Walker taking the mound. For that reason, I like the run total to go under 9.5. I also like the Phillies moneyline here. Philadelphia has been solid at home, winning seven of their last nine home games going back to last season.