Last Updated May 05, 2022, 8:58 PM

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks, Predictions, Odds

The New York Mets (18-9) and Philadelphia Phillies (11-14) will begin a four-game series on Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on MLB Network.  

Score Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 4

Best Bets 

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Predictions

The Mets are coming off a four-game home series against the Braves. New York won games two and three, but Atlanta managed to split the series with wins in game one and four. The offensive production for the Mets slowed down a bit, with just 12 runs scored throughout the series. The bullpen pitched a shutout in game three, but gave up 18 runs combined in the other three games. Right-hander pitcher Taijuan Walker is scheduled to take the mound Thursday. Walker had a shoulder injury at the start of the season and has pitched in just two games this season, both against the Phillies. In those two games Walker gave up two hits, zero runs, and struck out five batters in 7.0 innings.  

Philadelphia is coming off a two-game home series against the Texas Rangers. The Phillies lost both games, including 2-1 on Tuesday night in a game that went 10 innings. The Phillies had 17 hits and five runs throughout the series, while the bullpen gave up 16 hits and eight runs. The right-hander Aaron Nola is expected to get the start on Thursday. Nola is 1-3 in five games this season with an ERA of 3.90 and has allowed 21 hits, 12 earned runs, and struck out 34 batters in 27.2 innings of work.  

I like the value in the Mets Moneyline in this matchup. New York has won four of six games against Philadelphia this season and that trend should continue in this series. Walker has seen limited action on the mound this season, but looked solid in his most recent outing on April 30th and should be good to go here. Backing New York Moneyline in this one.

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds

  • Mets +130
  • Philadelphia -150
  • Mets +1.5 (-160)
  • Philadelphia -1.5 (+140)
  • Over 8 (-110)
  • Under 8 (-110)

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Resources

  • Date: Thursday, May 5, 2022
  • Matchup: NL East
  • Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
  • Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
  • TV-Time: MLBN - 6:45 p.m. ET

New York Mets Betting Analysis

The Mets find themselves atop the NL East and have gone 18-9 SU, 16-11 ATS, and have an O/U record of 12-12-3. The total has gone over in two of New York’s last three games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in eight of New York’s last 12 games against the Phillies. In their six games against Philadelphia this season, the Mets are 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, and the total went under in four of the six games. 

New York has been one of the best hitting teams in baseball this season. As a team they have a batting average of .257 (2nd), on base percentage of .338 (1st), slugging percentage of .380 (12th), and have scored 120 runs (1st). Designated hitter Pete Alonso has been bringing in runs for the Mets with a batting average of .260 (27-104), five home runs, and 21 RBIs. The second baseman Jeff McNeil is having a nice season as well with a batting average of .337 (29-86), one home run, and 10 RBIs.  

The Mets bullpen is playing just as well as the offense. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .200 (2nd), have an ERA of 3.21 (6th), and have given up 89 runs (8th). The right-hander Taijuan Walker is scheduled to take the mound Thursday. Walker had a shoulder injury at the start of the season and has pitched in just two games this season, both against the Phillies. In those two games Walker gave up two hits, zero runs, and struck out five batters in 7.0 innings.  

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Analysis

Philadelphia is currently third in the NL East and have gone 11-14 SU, 12-13 ATS, and have an O/U record of 12-11-2. The total has gone over in six of the Phillies last eight games. Following this trend, the total has gone over in five of their last six home games. Philadelphia has lost four of six games to the Mets this season.  

The Phillies have scored four more runs or more in seven of their last nine games. As a team they have a batting average of .245 (6th), on base percentage of .316 (12th), slugging percentage of .405 (4th), and have scored 110 runs (6th). Designated hitter Kyle Schwarber leads the team with seven home runs and 16 RBIs, but has a batting average of just .188 (15-80). The left fielder Nick Castellanos is having a nice season with a batting average of .286 (24-84), three home runs, and 12 RBIs.  

Philadelphia’s bullpen has shown inconsistency in their first 24 games. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .239 (21st), have an ERA of 3.88 (19th), and have given up 104 runs (18th). Right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola is expected to get the start on Thursday. Nola is 1-3 in five games this season with an ERA of 3.90 and has allowed 21 hits, 12 earned runs, and struck out 34 batters in 27.2 innings of work. In two games against the Mets this season Nola is 0-2 and has given up 10 hits, six earned runs, and struck out 14 batters in 9.1 innings of work. 

Key Players to Watch

  • NYM: Francisco Lindor - SS (Last Game: 0-3, BB)
  • NYM: Pete Alonso - 1B (Last Game: 1-4, 2B, R)
  • PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 0-4)
  • PHI: Nick Castellanos - OF (Last Game: 3-4, 2B)

Probable Pitchers

  • NYM: Taijuan Walker - RHP (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 K, 0.57 WHIP)
  • PHI: Aaron Nola - RHP (1-3, 3.90 ERA, 34 K, 0.94 WHIP)

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Conclusion

I like the Mets in game one of this matchup. New York has seen success against Philadelphia this season and will look to increase their lead of the NL East during this series. The Phillies have been playing better than when the season first began, but I think the Mets will be too much for them here. Expect both starting pitchers to last five to seven innings and leave the rest up to the relief pitchers. Backing the Mets moneyline in this one.  

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