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Game 3 – Nuggets vs. Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

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The NBA Finals resume on Wednesday night with Game 3 of a series tied at 1-1 between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from the Kaseya Center in South Florida at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games. (Getty)

DENVER NUGGETS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING PREDICTION

Well, just like clockwork, in a fourth straight series that Miami’s been tagged as a steep underdog, the Heat have ventured into hostile territory and given their opponent a wakeup call in one of their first two road matchups, as the Heat managed to steal Game 1 on the road to kick off sets against Milwaukee, New York, and Boston; and to the surprise of many, they pulled off a similar feat in their latest affair by handing Denver its first home loss of the postseason in Game 2.

Truth be told, the Nuggets actually posted solid numbers in Game 2. As a team, they shot 52% from the field and 39% from long-range, primarily carried by Nikola Jokic scoring 41 points on 16-of-28 shooting, which in theory, should be more than enough to outlast a Miami’ team that ranked 25th in offensive rating during the regular season.

Unfortunately for Denver, though, the Heat have transformed into a completely different team since the second round of the Play-In Tournament, highlighted by Miami ranking 1st in three-point percentage and 3rd in offensive rating since the opening round of the playoffs, while continuing to put forth an elite level of defensive play.

And for the most part, that’s the version of this Miami’ team that showed up in Game 2, as the Heat shot 49% from the field and knocked down 17-of-35 three-point attempts on the way to a 111-108 victory on Sunday night, despite Jimmy Butler scoring just 13 points on 4-of-14 shooting prior to the fourth quarter, and as a team, playing relatively mediocre defense throughout.

Sure, it’s fair to point out the fact that Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. underperformed for Denver in Game 2, but in the grand scheme of things, how much better could the Nuggets have actually played? The truth of the matter is, the Heat stepped up to the challenge and outplayed Denver on its homecourt, plain and simple, which is suddenly a concerning notion for the oddsmakers as they’ve trimmed down the Nuggets’ series price from -800 to -270 heading into Game 3.

Quite frankly, Denver’s current series price is where the line should've originally opened in the first place. Bettors have doubted the Nuggets all postseason. They were listed as +120 underdogs against No. 4 Phoenix in their second round matchup, and then relatively slim -150 favorites against No. 7 Los Angeles in the conference finals round, before finally receiving an overload of respect in the pre-series market against Miami (-480).

Denver isn't on some type of magical run, though. The Nuggets took care of business against the No. 8 Timberwolves and the No. 7 Lakers with relative ease, and they beat the No. 4 Suns in six games, a very talented team, but still a team trying to gain traction after being completely reassembled at the trade deadline.

Whereas, Miami had much larger obstacles in its path. Prior to the first round of the playoffs, the Bucks were favored to win the title at +240, and the Celtics had the second-best odds on the board at +370 – and the Heat beat both of those teams fair and square. So, why does the wide majority still act like this is some type of fluke?

Personally, I’m not interested in fading Miami at the moment, especially given how this Denver’ team tends to perform away from their home arena. The Nuggets have posted a record of 23-25 on the road this year, which includes a similarly mediocre tally of 4-3 in the playoffs, and they’re about to step foot in a hornets’ nest against a Heat’ team that’s 6-2 with the third-best net rating at home this postseason.

The Nuggets became notorious for their road struggles during the regular season, oftentimes serving as the focal point of debate surrounding this team in regards to title chances, but they’ve been so great at home throughout the playoffs that they’ve managed to skate by with very few meaningful road games down the stretch.

Well, here we go. The Nuggets’ only path to the title is by winning one of their next three road games. Will they win one? Push comes to shove, I would think so, Denver is the better team in this series -- but they'll probably need a mulligan or two. Back the Heat to win Game 3.

Score Prediction: Heat 106, Nuggets 103
Best Bet: Heat ML (+120)

DEN @ MIA Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-1.5 -112 -1.5 -118 -2.5 -105 -2 -120 -2 -115 N/A N/A -3.5 -110  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+1.5 -108 +1.5 -104 +2.5 -115 +2 even +2 -105 N/A N/A +3.5 -110  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
o214.5 -110 o107.5 -110 o107.5 -115 o108 -115 o108 -110 N/A N/A o212.5 -109  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
u214.5 -110 u107.5 -110 u107.5 -105 u108 -105 u108 -110 N/A N/A u212.5 -112  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-124 -154 -160 -170 -155 N/A N/A -167  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+106 +126 +135 +143 +135 N/A N/A +138  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-1.5 -112 -0.5 -118 -1.5 -105 -1 -115 -2 even N/A N/A -3.5 -110  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+1.5 -108 +0.5 -104 +1.5 -115 +1 -115 +2 -120 N/A N/A +3.5 -110  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
o214.5 -110 o53.5 -122 o54.5 -110 o54.5 -115 o54.5 even N/A N/A o212.5 -109  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
u214.5 -110 u53.5 -104 u54.5 -110 u54.5 -115 u54.5 -120 N/A N/A u212.5 -112  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-124 -132 -150 -150 -150 N/A N/A -167  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+106 +108 +115 +120 +130 N/A N/A +138  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-1.5 -112 -0.5 -115 N/A -1.5 even -0.5 -110 N/A N/A -3.5 -110  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+1.5 -108 +0.5 -105 N/A +1.5 -130 +0.5 -110 N/A N/A +3.5 -110  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
o214.5 -110 o53.5 -122 N/A o53.5 -125 o53.5 -105 N/A N/A o212.5 -109  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
u214.5 -110 u53.5 -104 N/A u53.5 -105 u53.5 -115 N/A N/A u212.5 -112  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-124 -132 N/A N/A -125 N/A N/A -167  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+106 +108 N/A N/A +105 N/A N/A +138  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-1.5 -112 -0.5 -115 N/A -1.5 +110 -0.5 -105 N/A N/A -3.5 -110  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+1.5 -108 +0.5 -105 N/A +1.5 -140 +0.5 -115 N/A N/A +3.5 -110  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
o214.5 -110 o52.5 -113 N/A N/A o52.5 -110 N/A N/A o212.5 -109  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
u214.5 -110 u52.5 -113 N/A N/A u52.5 -110 N/A N/A u212.5 -112  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-124 -130 N/A N/A -115 N/A N/A -167  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+106 +106 N/A N/A -105 N/A N/A +138  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-1.5 -112 -0.5 -105 N/A -1.5 +115 +0.5 -110 N/A N/A -3.5 -110  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+1.5 -108 +0.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -145 -0.5 -110 N/A N/A +3.5 -110  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
o214.5 -110 o52.5 -102 N/A N/A o52.5 -110 N/A N/A o212.5 -109  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
u214.5 -110 u52.5 -125 N/A N/A u52.5 -110 N/A N/A u212.5 -112  
Final
Denver Nuggets 517 Nuggets
-124 -115 N/A N/A -110 N/A N/A -167  
Miami Heat 518 Heat
+106 -105 N/A N/A -110 N/A N/A +138  

DENVER NUGGETS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Wednesday, June 7, 2023
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: ABC, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

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DENVER NUGGETS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING STATS

Denver Nuggets
SU: 66-33
ATS: 55-44
O/U: 47-52
PPG: 115.8
OPPG: 112.5

Miami Heat
SU: 58-46
ATS: 46-56
O/U: 53-49
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The total has gone OVER in six of the last seven matchups between Miami and Denver. (Getty)

DENVER NUGGETS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING TRENDS

  • The Nuggets are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
  • The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against Miami.
  • The Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.
  • The Nuggets are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against Miami.
  • The Heat are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami's last six games.
  • The Heat are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Miami's last seven games against Denver.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of Denver's last nine road games.
  • The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games against Miami.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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