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Game 6 – Knicks vs. Heat Picks, Predictions, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

First Round | Second Round
Eastern Conference | Western Conference
NBA Championship Betting Trends

The NBA Eastern Conference semifinals resume on Friday night with what could potentially be the sixth and final matchup between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat. Game 6 coverage begins from the Kaseya Center in South Florida at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Knicks are 7-13 SU in their last 20 matchups against Miami. (Getty)

NEW YORK KNICKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING PREDICTION

The Heat appeared to be down for the count after finishing 7th in the East with a record of 44-38, which was followed by an ugly 116-105 loss to Atlanta in the opening round of the Play-In Tournament. 

However, since hitting that low point, Miami has completely flipped the script and arguably been the best team in basketball, highlighted by the Heat shooting 52% from the field and 45% from long-range across their surprisingly brief five-game set with Milwaukee, and now, they find themselves up 3-2 against New York, with a chance to close them out and punch their ticket the Eastern Conference Finals at home in Game 6.

The Heat haven’t exactly been the “best team in basketball” in this series, though, and they certainly weren’t in Game 5 on Wednesday night. In the first four matchups of this series, the Heat shot just 44% from the field and 32% from three-point range, and still managed to jump out to a 3-1 lead. 

In Game 5, though, Miami’s offensive numbers saw a slight downtick, and the result appeared to be rather worrisome, as the Heat shot shot 42% from the field and 30% from downtown in a 112-103 loss on Wednesday night; however, their regression at the offensive of the floor certainly isn’t the reason why they dropped their latest affair.

The current iteration of this Heat’ team has always lived-and-died with its defensive play, and their journey throughout this series has been no different, highlighted by Miami holding the Knicks to just 99 PPG on 44% from the field and 28% from three-point range in the first four matchups of this series; and then turning around and surrendering 112 points on 49% from the field and 38% from long-range in an ugly loss in Game 5.

The real kicker in Game 5, though, was the differential in the free throw department. In the first four matchups of this series, the Knicks got to the foul line for just 24 free throw attempts per game.

However, In the most recent meeting between these teams, New York saw that number skyrocket to 40 attempts; and while some may call it home cooking for the Knicks’ crowd with their team on the brink of elimination, the Heat truly didn’t put up much of a fight in Game 5, highlighted by their miserable defensive rating of 120.9 in the contest.

Jimmy Butler is the poster child for the type of player that can emerge as the best player on the planet on any given night, but then on other nights, he disappears and becomes a total non-factor; and with a comfortable 3-1 lead, he did the latter on Wednesday, highlighted by Butler scoring just 19 points on 5-of-12 from the floor in Game 5.

No concerns about Jimmy coming from this camp, though. Expect Butler to be far more assertive back at home on Friday night, which in turn, should garner a high-energy effort from his teammates as well, as Jimmy’s mentality and overall activity level often rubs off on his supporting cast. 

When the Heat bring their A-Game on offense and manage to stay out of foul trouble, there’s no question as to which team has the upper hand in this matchup. The question is, when are they going to bring it? I think Miami brings it in Game 6. Lay the points with the Heat in this one.

Score Prediction: Heat 107, Knicks 96
Best Bet: Heat -5.5 (-110)

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NY @ MIA Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+4 -110 +3.5 -102 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -105 +3 -110 N/A N/A +6.5 -111  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-4 -110 -3.5 -120 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -115 -3 -110 N/A N/A -6.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
o210 -110 o104 -110 o103.5 -115 o103.5 -110 o104.5 -110 N/A N/A o204.5 -110  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
u210 -110 u104 -110 u103.5 -105 u103.5 -110 u104.5 -110 N/A N/A u204.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+146 +172 +170 +170 +160 N/A N/A +203  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-174 -215 -210 -205 -190 N/A N/A -250  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+4 -110 +2.5 -120 +2.5 -115 +2.5 -115 +2 -105 N/A N/A +6.5 -111  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-4 -110 -2.5 -102 -2.5 -105 -2.5 -115 -2 -115 N/A N/A -6.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
o210 -110 o51.5 -128 o52.5 -105 o52.5 -105 o52.5 -105 N/A N/A o204.5 -110  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
u210 -110 u51.5 even u52.5 -115 u52.5 -125 u52.5 -115 N/A N/A u204.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+146 +140 +145 +140 +145 N/A N/A +203  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-174 -172 -190 -170 -170 N/A N/A -250  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+4 -110 +1.5 -104 N/A +1.5 -115 +1.5 -110 N/A N/A +6.5 -111  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-4 -110 -1.5 -118 N/A -1.5 -115 -1.5 -110 N/A N/A -6.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
o210 -110 o52.5 -102 N/A o51.5 -125 o51.5 -115 N/A N/A o204.5 -110  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
u210 -110 u52.5 -125 N/A u51.5 -105 u51.5 -105 N/A N/A u204.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+146 +136 N/A N/A +135 N/A N/A +203  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-174 -168 N/A N/A -155 N/A N/A -250  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+4 -110 +1.5 -108 N/A +1.5 -115 +2 -110 N/A N/A +6.5 -111  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-4 -110 -1.5 -112 N/A -1.5 -115 -2 -110 N/A N/A -6.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
o210 -110 o50.5 -104 N/A N/A o49.5 -115 N/A N/A o204.5 -110  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
u210 -110 u50.5 -122 N/A N/A u49.5 -105 N/A N/A u204.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+146 +126 N/A N/A +140 N/A N/A +203  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-174 -154 N/A N/A -165 N/A N/A -250  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+4 -110 +0.5 -105 N/A +1.5 -135 +1.5 -115 N/A N/A +6.5 -111  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-4 -110 -0.5 -115 N/A -1.5 +105 -1.5 -105 N/A N/A -6.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
o210 -110 o49.5 -118 N/A N/A o50.5 -115 N/A N/A o204.5 -110  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
u210 -110 u49.5 -108 N/A N/A u50.5 -105 N/A N/A u204.5 -110  
Final
New York Knicks 501 Knicks
+146 +108 N/A N/A +125 N/A N/A +203  
Miami Heat 502 Heat
-174 -132 N/A N/A -145 N/A N/A -250  

NEW YORK KNICKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Friday, May 12, 2023
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, Florida
TV-Time: ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET
Matchup
Expert Picks

NBA Finals Betting Odds

NEW YORK KNICKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING STATS

New York Knicks
SU: 53-39
ATS: 51-41
O/U: 47-44-1
PPG: 116.1
OPPG: 113.1

Miami Heat
SU: 52-42
ATS: 40-52
O/U: 49-43
PPG: 109.5
OPPG: 109.8

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

The Heat are 9-2 SU in their last 11 home games against New York. (Getty)

NEW YORK KNICKS vs. MIAMI HEAT BETTING TRENDS

  • New York are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of New York's last ten games.
  • The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Miami.
  • The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of Miami's last ten games.
  • The Heat are 6-2 SU in their last eight games.
  • The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
  • The Knicks are 7-13 SU in their last 20 matchups against Miami.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of New York's last six road games.
  • The Knicks are 2-9 SU in their last 11 road games against Miami.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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