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Dinero Tracker – Feb. 6

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read
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Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 7-3 | NCAA BB: 5-2

It was a strong night in hoops, creeping into 70 percent in college and pro. The Miami Heat and Bucknell were each upset as heavy favorites, so hopefully they didn't blow up too many teasers or parlays since most everything else came in. Another disappointment came on our top college play, which I'll detail below. Fortunately, the manner in which the NBA guarantee came in kept a smile on my face all night, so we'll chalk Monday up as a nice night for karma's sake. The NBA lock is 17-for-23 (73.9%) since Jan. 11 and riding a run of seven straight cashes. Here are some of the highlights (and lowlights):

TUESDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Buffalo -5.5
The Bulls bounced back from their first MAC loss, an 82-79 setback last Tuesday at Kent State, holding off Western Michigan 92-86. Tonight's game will be the first time they'll be back in someone else's arena and looks to be the toughest true road test, on paper, that they've got remaining on their schedule. Central Michigan's up-tempo style should help the visitors get comfortable, so we're laying the points and riding the MAC's top team. Back Buffalo.

MONDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Fairfield -9
Let's stay hot in the MAAC by fading the Saints, who lost top scorer Nico Clareth for the season last month and open this one with freshman point guard Roman Penn dealing with a cyst on his heel that could keep him out for weeks. They'll battle defensively and have slowed tempo down the past few weeks, but they're on the road against a well-coached team that should effectively utilize their depth to wear down Siena. The Stags are looking for their third consecutive win and beat Iona in OT at Webster Bank Arena last Monday. Lay the points and expect Fairfield to win by double-digits.



Result: This one was an easier winner than Sunday's freebie and improves my run of MAAC winners to six straight. Siena slowed tempo to try and hang around in its depleted state, but never actually led. The Stags led by double-digits for most of the second half and got a Tyler Nelson 3-pointer with 50 seconds left to take all the mystery out of picking up the cover, turning a 12-point lead into a 15-point boulder. He scored 27 points to help head coach Sydney Johnson earn his 100th win at Fairfield.

MONDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Wizards/Pacers OVER 212.5
The Wizards have persevered despite losing John Wall for the foreseeable future, pulling off upsets over Oklhahoma City and Toronto last week, part of a four-game winning streak they carry into Indianapolis. The Pacers have won seven of eight at home and have scored 100 or more in seven straight, so this should be a fun one that features numerous runs and will likely get extended down the stretch. Lance Stephenson will play a major role here with Darren Collison and Victor Oladipo out, so expect a wide open affair. Ride the over, guaranteed.

Result: News that Oladipo was ill and Collison got his knee scoped ended up moving this line down to 210.5-211, so as this game came down the stretch, I was really hoping that the line move wouldn't come back to bite me. Stephenson drained two free-throws with 1:19 left to make it 111-100, but the teams put together three consecutive empty possessions before Bojan Bogdanovic missed the third 3-pointer taken in the final minute with just 19 seconds left. Fortunately, Myles Turner was there for the board and tip-in, delivering the over with 16.8 seconds left by a half-point. Washington, which we came in on for the in-game parlay, then dribbled out the clock in 111-102 road conquest.



LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Oklahoma/West Virginia OVER 167
Look for the Sooners to attack the West Virginia press in tonight's big game in Norman. Jevon Carter will try and disrupt Trae Young, who has worn down some lately. Carter should be effective in attacking Young's defense, while Teddy Allen and Esa Ahmed getting more run ensures that the Mountaineers will be more proficient on the offensive end. Ride the over, guaranteed.

Result: Although the game started slow, tied at just nine points more than five minutes in, 34 points were scored in the final 4:48 of the first half, so the over looked great with West Virginia up 50-40. The teams then proceeded to combine for a single field goal in their first 19 attempts of the second half, destroying any chance of reaching such a high total without OT. The Sooners won the second 20 mnutes 35-23, but Rashard Odomes failed to connect on a layup in the closing seconds, allowing the Mountaineers to escape Norman with a 75-73 win. That there were 58 points scored in the second half and that both teams shot so poorly was bizarre, as was the fact that Young had just one assist. Bob Huggins' strategy and the fact he was under the weather had something to do with that, but it prevented the shootout where both teams got into the 80s from materializing.

TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Kings/Bulls UNDER 212
The expectation here is that this will be one of those basketball games that won't go into the old time vault unless someone wants to show what sloppy basketball in 2018 looked like. Kris Dunn and Lauri Markkanen remain out for the Bulls, while the Kings are in the middle of a youth movement. Neither team can be depended on to actually want to win this, so riding the under is the way to go.

Result: Sacramento managed to score just nine first-quarter points, then rallied to win the next three quarters in pulling off a 104-98 comeback win. Chicago scored just 19 points in the fourth quarter, so the only danger here was the threat of overtime. Bojan Bogdanovic's clutch 3-pointer with 52.4 seconds left snapped a 96-all tie, and we dodged bullets on game-tying attempts from beyond the arc from both Zach LaVine and Bobby Portis.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Southern +2.5
Jackson State snapped a three-game losing streak by holding off an Alcorn State squad that has won only once on the road this season, so it's easy to dismiss that result. Considering top forward Maurice Rivers is dealing with a knee issue and guard Paris Collins is nursing an ankle sprain, the JSU Tigers are worth fading as a veteran Jaguars squad looks to get hot at the right time following an uneven start in SWAC play. Take the points and ride Southern.

Result: The Jaguars trailed for the majority of this game, so the situation was looking bleak until the final few minutes, when Southern came through as expected and made key plays on both sides of the ball down the stretch. Jackson State was fouled on a 3-pointer with less than 10 seconds left, adding unnecessary drama to closing out an eventual 67-62 win.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Heat -8.5
The Magic will be without top forward Aaron Gordon once again and announced that he will be skipping the slam dunk contest at All-Star weekend. With center Hassan Whiteside returning from an illness, look for the Heat to wear down short-handed Orlando to win by double-digits at home. Lay the points and ride Miami.

Result: Miami got off a 27-15 lead and then simply lost control. A defense you can typically rely on due to their length and the effort Erik Spoelstra gets them to put in allowed 67 combined points over the second and third quarters. Mario Hezonja scored a game-high 20 points and the Magic avoided a near-collapse in a 111-109 road win over the Heat, which has now dropped four straight.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Nuggets -4.5, Nugs/Hornets OVER 218.5
There have been an average of 139 points scored over Charlotte's last three games, so with the Nuggets expected to try and run to take advantage of Charlotte coming in on a road back-to-back, expect points to be scored here. Lay the points and ride Denver, backing the over for the in-game parlay.

Result: Denver scored the game's first seven points and ended up leaving for well over 40 minutes in a 121-104 win. The Hornets really didn't have legs, seeing their three-game winning streak snapped as seven Nuggets scored in double-figures, helping execute the team's desire to try and run Charlotte out of the building by scoring 97 points through three quarters. Both the cover and win on the total came through easily.


Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA or e-mail him at mejia@vegasinsider.com

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