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Inside the Paint – Friday

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
Thursday’s Recap and Quick Thoughts

Favorites went 8-1 straight up and 5-4 against the spread last night while the ‘under’ went 5-4. There were a couple easy ‘chalk’ winners posted in the Hornets and Jazz, however bettors laying the wood with the 76ers, Rockets and Nuggets all got teased with tight non-covers.

Tonight’s six-game card is far from spectacular and only two games had overnight lines posted due to a ton of injuries. Based on the uncertain status for key players, I’m not even going to handicap the Boston-Orlando matchup or the late-night tilt between Sacramento and Golden State. Plus, I believe both the Celtics and Warriors have conceded the No. 1 seeds to Toronto and Houston respectively.

There are other angles to watch and the fatigue factor is in play. Philadelphia (3-7 SU, 3-6-1 ATS), Toronto (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) and the L.A. Clippers (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) will be all be playing with no rest and you can see by their records in parenthesis that none of the trio have been exactly great in those spots.

Fearless Predictions

Odds per [...]

Decent start last night with a 4-0 mark although some of you running to the counter late may’ve received a push or loss on the 76ers-Knicks total. The other leans went 3-2 and a couple of those outcomes were fortunate. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Under 216 ½ Brooklyn-Philadelphia

Quick flip-flop wager for me here as we went high with the 76ers last night and we’re coming back with the low side tonight. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Philadelphia put up a crooked number on the weak Brooklyn defense but we haven’t see much fight from 76ers on zero days rest (see above). More importantly for this bet, the ‘under’ has gone 7-3 in back-to-back spots for Philadelphia this season. The pair just played on Sunday at the Barclays Center and Philadelphia won 120-97 with the ‘under’ (219) barely cashing. Brooklyn is a very streaky team on offense and right now, they’ve struggled in their last two games. I expect the quick rematch to be a little bit tighter in Philadelphia tonight. FYI – This line was as high as 218 and has been steamed down to 216 ½ this morning.

Toronto Raptors Team Total Over 111 ½

I would’ve pulled the trigger on the ‘over’ (212) in the game knowing the Raptors have gone 7-3 to the ‘over’ on zero days rest this season but I don’t have enough faith in the Dallas offense. Toronto’s record versus below .500 teams is ridiculous (30-2) and they haven’t shown any letdown all season. Coincidentally, one of those losses came to the Mavericks. I don’t expect Dallas to pull off the sweep tonight. Make a note that Toronto has scored 130, 122 and 121 in its last three games on no rest. I’m not sure if they put up another crazy number but 112 seems very doable at home.

Miami +4 over the L.A. Lakers

Similar to last night’s lean on the Pistons, this selection is clearly based on the opinion of the oddsmakers. They sent out Los Angeles as a 2 ½-point home favorite and while the number was pushed up to -4 quickly, I believe the opener should’ve been the Lakers -4 ½ or -5. Why? If you haven’t watched Los Angeles lately, it’s quietly won 12 of its last 13 games at the Staples Center and the club has gone 11-2 ATS during this span as well. Meanwhile, Miami has dropped nine straight games (5-3-1 ATS) on the road and that includes a 0-6 record since Dwyane Wade returned to the team. Wade is ‘out’ tonight for the Heat and so is Hassan Whiteside (hip) plus Josh Richardson (ankle) is ‘doubtful.’ The Lakers just blasted the Heat 131-113 on Mar. 1 from Miami and expecting a repeat effort in Los Angeles is wishful thinking.

Other Leans and Projections

Under 203 ½ Boston-Orlando

L.A. Clippers Team Total Over  109

Sacramento +10 ½

Under 219 ½ Miami-L.A. Lakers

Friday, Mar. 16
Rotation Teams Projection
801 Boston 104
802 Orlando 99
803 Brooklyn 100
804 Philadelphia 111
805 Dallas 104
806 Toronto 118
807 L.A. Clippers 115
808 Oklahoma City 117
809 Sacramento 100
810 Golden State 106
811 Miami 102
812 L.A. Lakers 103


Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com

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