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Mar 11, 2020

NBA Prop Picks and Odds for Wednesday March 11 - Lonzo Ball

NBA Props to Watch - Wednesday March 11

Matchup and Player Prop to Watch
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)

NBA Prop Odds - New Orleans Pelicans

Lonzo Ball - Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116)

Tonight, Lonzo Ball will remind the world that there are multiple young stars competing nightly, contributing to the newfound success and energy surrounding this young, electric, New Orleans Pelicans team. He might not have 20+ points in 9 of his last 10 (Zion), but this team doesn’t go-round without him and Jrue Holiday being on their A-game. (Jrue avg 25+ in last 4 games). If the Pelicans are going to get it done in Sacramento tonight, on ESPN, it won’t just be the Zion Williamson show all evening.

They are going to have to get out and run to keep up with the explosiveness of De’Aaron Fox and company.

I know LaVar Ball is somewhere off his rocker ABSOLUTELY SICK of this Zion fella.

He got Lonzo drafted #2 to LA by literally obsessing over his son’s fame, strutting onto every sport’s talk-show in the country, spreading the word about how great his son is; even looking the great Shannon Sharpe of FS1’s “Undisputed” straight in the eyes one day and saying…

“As a complete basketball player TODAY, I would rather have Lonzo than him(Lebron)…”

Which obviously was quite some time ago, but it is a great example of what LaVar is willing to do/how he feels about literally ANY kind of attention he can cast onto his offspring…

There has never been a day in any normal person’s life that they have woken up and genuinely felt that Lonzo does, or ever will belong in the same conversation while comparing basketball talent as Lebron James…

LaVar just like to stir the pot when things begin to trend in the downward direction for Zo…

And now that he is trying to reboot the Big Baller Brand with the Pelicans surge in popularity, and LaMelo making his way towards American superstardom, he somehow got invited back onto Undisputed last week, and dropped another take-quake predicting a Pelicans upset of the Lakers in the playoffs.

As annoying as LaVar is, he is a genius at manipulating the media…he understands the relevance of playing on the ESPN stage, and what you do on national TV influences the public’s image of you as a player.

LaVar has been relatively quiet in the media ever since the immediate explosion of Zion Williamson onto the scene in NO, dramatically shifting the makeup of this team and organization.

But now that Zion has settled down, the Pelicans are hot, and Lonzo and the rookie superstar are exponentially expanding their chemistry every game, LaVar knows it’s time to get some attention on his first born heading into the playoffs…it has been the Zion Williamson show in New Orleans ever since his debut, now scoring over 20 points in 9 of his last 10…

But the oddsmakers aren't isn’t stupid. His o/u isn’t 20 points. Zion’s points o/u is 23.5 which has gone under in 3 out of their last 4 contests, and 4 out of their last 6…and his pts + reb o/u is 30.5, which has also gone under in the exact same fashion as the previous stat (3/4 and 4/6 recently).

It’s a Western Conference matchup between 2 non-title contenders, with a lot of young, exciting stars getting the opportunity to showcase their talent on ESPN.

I expect there to be a lot of energy in the Golden 1 Center tonight. I expect the Kings to play well. I expect Zion to play well…

The lines regarding volume statistics on the Kings and Zion Williamson don’t feel safe though…the safest bet in this game feels like Lonzo Ball to go over that 27.5 clip for total stats.

Over his last 5 games (ever since Zion has really settled down and accepted a realistic role on this team), Lonzo has averaged over 20 points per game on over 53% shooting as a result of teams adjusting to the new explosive firepower of Zion Williamson accompanying the already dynamic duo of Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram.

The Pelicans are extremely difficult to defend when they are playing up-tempo and firing on all cylinders.

In the Pelicans most recent nationally televised game on ESPN, the Pelicans beat a REAL team in the Miami Heat, in which Zion went under his pts + reb total, and Lonzo SOARED over his total, recording 16 pts, 9 reb, and 8 ast, not leaving a doubt in Lonzo bettor’s mind whether or not his total was going over.

He has been even BETTER than that lately, but I believe that game against Miami is indicative of what we will get out of him tonight, against a much worse team. YOU KNOW LaVar has been in Zo’s ear all day telling him he needs to fill a stat sheet tonight win, lose or draw to promote Daddy’s failing company…

Don’t get it twisted. The Kings are still a young, REAL team. And Lonzo Ball is a VERY good basketball player, just not as good as his Dad thinks.

Having said all that, De’Aaron Fox and the Kings are no match for LONZO BALL’s Pelicans tonight, and it should show up that way in the box score.

NBA Top Prop Picks - Wednesday March 11

Lonzo Ball – Over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-116)



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