Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:53 AM
NBA Prop Picks and Predictions for Thursday July 30
NBA Thursday Prop Plays
Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook
T&C's Apply, 21+, Only in NJ, CO, IN, WV, PA, and IA
Utah Jazz vs. New Orleans Pelicans Player Props
Mike Conley Under 16.5 Points (-120)
So far this season, Conley is averaging just 13.8 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.3 asissts per game, which has been a massive disappointment for the Jazz. The Pelicans have one of the best defensive guard tandems in the league in Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who will be tasked with locking down Conley and Mitchell all night.
Prior to the shutdown, Conley went under 16.5 total points in 7 of his last 9 games, tallying over 30 minutes in 7 out of 9 of those. We are in uncharted territory in the NBA currently, and player prop lines reflect pre-coronavirus minute totals, which is unrealistic for many reasons.
Conley should have a tough time scoring tonight against the Pelicans elite defensive guard duo, and the probability that he does not get the minutes he typically gets, makes me think there is no way he is able to tally 17 points in tonight’s opener.
Brandon Ingram Over 33.5 pts + rebs + asts (-116)
The last time these two teams met, there were absolute fireworks between all-stars, as Donovan Mitchell was able to tally 46 points for the Utah Jazz, and Brandon Ingram recorded a 49-point outing for the Pelicans.
Zion Williamson was added to the Pelicans' injury report last night for conditioning reasons, after missing the Pelican’s scrimmages leading up to the restart. This leads me to believe that there is a very good chance that the rookie plays on a minute restriction tonight as New Orleans gears up for a tough first round Western Conference matchup.
If Zion plays on a minutes restriction tonight (or sits out), that means there is a lot of offensive volume to go around for the Pelicans. So far this season, Ingram has averaged 24.3 pts, 6.3 rebs, and 4.3 asts per game on 46% shooting from the field.
Prior to the shutdown, Ingram went over the 33.5 total stats clip in 4 of his last 7 games. All 7 of those games were played with Williamson in the lineup for 30+ mins per game; there is a good chance that doesn’t happen tonight. Look for the volume Zion usually gets to be lost in Ingram’s stats tonight, pushing him over 33.5 total.
L.A. Clippers vs. L. A. Lakers Player Props
Kawhi Leonard Under 27.5 Points (-122)
Finally, the game NBA fans have been eyeing ever since the season restart was confirmed; Kawhi Leonard and the L.A. Clippers square off against LeBron James and the L.A. Lakers at 9 PM ET at the Disney Wide World of Sports in Orlando.
The first pick on the slate for this game will go against Leonard. Kawhi is averaging 26.9 pts, 7.3 rebs, and 5 asts for the 2019-2020 season, but has only eclipsed 27 points in 2 of his last 8 games prior to the shutdown. Leonard has gone over 27 points in 2 of his 3 games against the Lakers this year, but I am looking for him to work against that trend as there is so much uncertainty regarding how minutes are going to shake out within the bubble.
There is a good chance Leonard will draw a healthy and rested James defensively for the majority of the game, which will not necessarily help out his total points total, even if he does get his typical minutes load.
In the scrimmages leading up to the season, Paul George has been the one taking the majority of the shots for the Clippers, even though Kawhi has looked good too. I think George steals the show from Kawhi tonight, keeping Kawhi’s points under the total.
Anthony Davis Over 33.5 pts + rebs (-112)
Clippers' big man, Montrezl Harrell is still yet to join the team in the bubble, which means the Clips will be short-handed down low defensively, which is never good news when you are playing against James and the Lakers.
Anthony Davis is averaging 26.9 pts and 9.4 rebs per game this season for the Lakers. He has gone over 33.5 pts + rebs in 4 of his last 5 games leading up to the shutdown, tallying 30+ points in 3 of those games; 1 of those 30-point games coming against the Clippers. In the first game back from quarantine, it should be safe to bet on getting 25+ out of AD, as he has only gone under 25 points 3 times in his last 13 games.
That leaves us needing 8-9 rebounds from him tonight, which should be a relatively easy ask with the absence of Montrezl Harrell, and all the extra hustle-energy these guys have stored up from quarantine.
Line movement is shifting towards LeBron’s “under” tonight, which also leads me to believe that I am not alone thinking Anthony Davis is the player to watch tonight in the Lakers vs Clippers game. Back AD to show up tonight and deliver in spectacular fashion against a shorthanded Clippers team Thursday night.