Player Prop Plays for Tuesday August 11
NBA Tuesday Prop PlaysOdds per DraftKings Sportsbook
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Phoenix Suns vs. Philadelphia 76ers Player Props
Deandre Ayton Over 32.5 – Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)The #1 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, DeAndre Ayton, did not start for the Phoenix Suns on Monday afternoon, as the big man failed to complete a COVID-19 test in a timely manner before tipoff against the Thunder. Ayton was able to get a test done in time for the game, but it resulted in him getting a reduced minutes load (17 Mins), which should end up paying dividends tonight in the back end of their double-header against the 76ers who have recently been bit pretty badly by the injury bug. Philadelphia will be without all-stars Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid tonight, which is a huge loss to their interior defense and I think they will have a really tough time in their first game adjusting without both of their big men. The Sixers frontcourt will most likely contain Al Horford, Tobias Harris, and Mike Scott who all have a size and strength disadvantage against the 7-foot Phoenix center.
Part of me wanted to ride with the hot hand in Devin Booker today as the Suns go for their 7th straight win inside the bubble, but I think the well-rested Ayton is the better play today against a Sixers team that will be rotating a lot of backups into their frontcourt Tuesday afternoon. Ayton is averaging 21 ppg inside the bubble when he gets 30+ minutes, and I expect him to easily get that on Tuesday.
His rebounding numbers have been down in Orlando, but I expect him to be able to iron that out against Philadelphia who really struggle to rebound the ball when Embiid is not in the game. There’s a good chance Booker and Ayton both go over in tonight’s contest, but I’m rolling with Ayton’s total stats over as my first player prop play, due to the matchup disadvantage Philly will have on the glass tonight throughout the game.
Boston Celtics vs. Memphis Grizzlies Player Props
Kemba Walker Under 26.5 – Points + Rebounds + Assists (-122)Celtics PG, Kemba Walker, tallied his highest minute total in the bubble in Boston’s most recent game against the Orlando Magic (31:47), but still fell under 26.5 total stats for his 5th straight game at the Disney Wide World of Sports. Kemba just isn’t getting the same volume in the bubble as he got for the majority of the regular season, failing to record 20 points in all 5 games inside the bubble, after averaging 20.5 ppg for the season.
The Celtics typically have 4 guys on the court at all times who are capable of bringing the ball up the court and distributing, and a lot of the time the ball just doesn’t end up in Kemba’s hands as much as it used to. For the 2019-2020 season, Walker is 3rd on the Celtics in usage rate at 26.9%, but so far in his 5 games in the bubble, his usage rate has plummeted down to 21.3% (5th on the team; behind Hayward). Either Kemba just doesn’t really care about this regular season, or the Celtics younger players are beginning to cut into some of the 30-year old point guard’s volume stats and Kemba is allowing it.
Whatever the reasoning is, I am going to keep betting this under until he burns me. I’m backing Kemba to go under 26.5 total stats for his 6th contest in a row.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks Player Props
Damian Lillard Over 42.5 – Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)Clippers’ Paul George and Patrick Beverley might regret lighting a fire under a very dangerous man, trolling Damian Lillard on social media after the Blazers loss to LAC on Saturday, which was then followed up with a 51-point, 7 assist outing from the Portland point-guard in their 124-121 win over Philadelphia on Sunday.
Lillard is very close to the top of the list of guys you don’t want to “dare” or “challenge,” and it appears he has taken PG and Beverley’s comments as just that. He has another favorable matchup tonight against Dallas, averaging 36.3 points, 7.7 assists, and 3.3 rebounds in his 3 matchups with Doncic and company so far this season (over 42.5 total stats in 2 out of 3 matchups). Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis sat out during the Mavericks 122-114 win over the Jazz Monday night in the first of a back-to-back, and there is concern whether the Mavs stars are going to play Tuesday, or if they do decide to suit up against the Blazers, how seriously will they take their tilt with Portland.
If the Dallas stars decide to sit out, we are looking at a lot of Seth Curry and J.J. Barea guarding Lillard, which would be a disaster for the Mavericks and Dame would have a field day. If Doncic plays, Dame torched him for 48 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists in their most recent matchup, so I’m not worried. Lillard has gone over 42.5 total stats in 4 out of 6 games so far in the Orlando bubble, and I expect him to do it again tonight. Every game matters at this point for the Blazers as they lead the red-hot Phoenix Suns by 0.5 game in the race for the last spot in the 8 seed vs 9 seed play-in series. People were expecting Lillard to flip a switch and kick it into high gear at some point and start dominating down the stretch.
Unfortunately for the rest of the teams competing for the 8 and 9 seeds, Pat Bev and PG’s comments might have just been that turning point. Bet on it being “Dame-Time” again for Portland tonight in a must-win game against Mavs.
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