Game 4 Predictions & Odds: Lakers vs. Heat

• October 5, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

The Miami Heat nabbed their first win of the NBA Finals with an impressive 115-104 victory on Sunday night – undeniably carried on the back of Jimmy Butler.

Miami still has a boatload of work to do heading into Game 4 though, still needing three victories in their next four games against a star-packed Los Angeles Lakers squad if they want to become the first team to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy following a run in the Disney World Bubble.

Betting Resources

• Matchup: NBA Finals Game 4
• Series: Lakers lead 2-1
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
• Location: Orlando, Florida
• Date: Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2020
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will look to avoid a 3-0 deficit when the meet the L.A. Lakers on Sunday. (AP)

Game 4 Betting Odds - Lakers vs. Heat

Line Movements

Miami shut everybody up for the moment with a triumphant victory in Game 3, but the oddsmakers are not batting an eye after the Laker loss on Sunday night – rolling out the same opening line of Los Angeles -7.5 for Game 4.

Miami and Los Angeles combined for 219 points in Game 3, and depending on ‘when’ and ‘where’ your bet was placed, there is a chance you could have had a winning ticket regardless of whether you bet the ‘over’ or ‘under,’ as the total for Game 3 opened at OU 217.5 and closed at OU 220.

The ‘over-under’ for Tuesday night’s contest has been intelligently placed at the same number of points these teams combined for in their most recent affair – OU 219.5

• Spread: Los Angeles -7.5
• Money-Line: Los Angeles -325 Miami +270
• Total: 219.5
• Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -1100, Miami +700

Odds Subject to Change

Game 3 Recap

Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic both did not suit up for the Heat in Game 3, but it did not make a difference anyhow, as Sunday night was all about a Miami lineup led by none other than Mr. Jimmy Buckets.

Butler had one of the most impressive nights in NBA postseason history in Miami’s 115-104 win on Sunday night, recording just the third ever 40-point triple double in a Finals contest, and did it on 70% shooting, without attempting a single 3-pointer. He also recorded two blocks and two steals at the other end of the floor.

The Lakers’ starters were miserable from 3-point land in Game 3, going a combined 3 for 14 from beyond the arc in their first loss of these Finals. Unexpected bright spots came in the form of Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma on Sunday night though, as the duo provided 38 points and 9 rebounds off the bench to keep Frank Vogel’s team alive over the course of this one.

Los Angeles will undoubtedly need more out of their superstars in Game 4 if Butler plans on continuing the rampage he started on Sunday night.

Game 3 Betting Results

Outcome: Heat 115 Lakers 104

Miami came to play on Sunday and bettors backing the Heat were able to connect in the first quarter and both halves, with each decision never in doubt.

While the underdog was the right side, the same can't be said for total wagers. After a slow start, the offensive units picked up the pace in the second and third quarter yet the 'under' still managed to connect. Some bettors may have been able to connect on a middle too as the game opened 218 and closed at 220.

• Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+9.5), Under 220
• First Quarter: Heat Win (26-23), Heat Cover (+2.5), Under 55
• First-Half: Heat Win (58-54), Heat Cover (+4.5), Over 109
• Second-Half: Heat Win (57-50), Heat Cover (+7.5), Under 108

Lakers vs. Heat
How to Handicap Game 4

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 17-9 SU, 11-14-1 ATS, 12-14 O/U
• Playoffs: 14-4 SU, 10-7-1 ATS, 8-10 O/U

I am not sure if the Lakers’ superstars just wanted to give the Heat their ceremonial victory lap for winning the Eastern Conference in Game 3 or what, but Los Angeles lacked all signs of a killer-instinct on Sunday night, and appeared to be content letting Miami walk all over them once they fell behind in this game.

Adebayo did not suit up for Miami in Sunday’s contest, which means Anthony Davis was drawing the Kelly Olynyk matchup for large chunks of this game, and the Brow managed to convert just six of nine shot attempts.

The strategy for the Lakers on Tuesday night needs to be plain and simple. Get AD going early on – he needs to shoot the ball more. Bam is likely not going to suit up again. Davis has no excuse for dodging the spotlight in Game 4 after a relatively pedestrian performance last time out.

Miami Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

• Bubble: 16-10 SU, 17-9 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U
• Playoffs: 13-5 SU, 14-4 ATS, 9-9 O/U

Miami is now receiving a bit of love from Vegas heading into Game 4, being trimmed from a +1600 underdog, now down to just a +600 underdog following a victory on Sunday night without two of its crucial players.

I guess the only good thing about Bam and Goran being out is that there are more shots available for Butler, as the All-Star led the contest with 20 field goal attempts.

The Lakers are notorious for struggling to defend guards off the dribble and Jimmy exposed them in Game 3 by dropping 40 without taking a single 3-point attempt. He will look to utilize that part of his game again for his team on Tuesday night.

Key Injuries

Los Angeles

• None

Miami

• PF Bam Adebayo: Neck - Questionable
• PG Goran Dragic: Foot - Doubtful

Adebayo said he feels good and wanted to suit up heading into Game 3, but the reports coming out of the bubble continue to be pessimistic regarding his, and Dragic’s statuses for the remainder of this series.

Leading up to tipoff on Sunday night, both players received “doubtful” tags which ultimately led to neither of the guys suiting up. Keep an eye out for any injury report upgrades before the contest, but I would not bank on either of them playing in Game 4.

Game 4 Player Prop Picks

• Jimmy Butler Over 24.5 Points
• LeBron James Triple-Double - Yes +220

Jimmy Butler was incredible on Sunday night, tallying 40 points, 13 assists, and 11 rebounds to cap off the biggest night of his NBA career to date – wrapping up the victory by walking off the court and warning LeBron, “He’s in trouble.”

I doubt LeBron is in trouble, but Jimmy is usually good for his word. Give me Butler’s ‘over’ 24.5 total points at -116 odds in this contest.

King James has been on the cusp of a triple-double now in all three of these NBA Finals contests, finishing last game with 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists.

I think LeBron will take Butler’s trash talk to heart for some reason and play his best game of this series on Tuesday night, which is why I am rolling the dice with King James’ triple-double prop at +220 odds in Game 4.

Game 4 Best Bet Picks

The Lakers are going to win this series as I believe they are by far the best team remaining on Disney World’s campus in Orlando…

It is just a matter as of, “When are they going to get it done?”

A win here for Miami would tie up this series 2-2, and guarantee that we see a Game 6 between these teams in the bubble, leaving an exhilarating NBA Finals Game 7 showdown well within the realm of possibility.

Sadly, I do not think we will get that far. Butler likely woke up the beast within King James on Sunday night, and is likely in for a long night in Game 4. Give me Los Angeles -7.5 on Tuesday night in a rout.

Score Prediction: Lakers 119 Heat 99