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Mavericks vs. Nuggets Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
Mar. 13, 2021
by Michael Crosson
NBA Expert
VegasInsider.com

Western Conference NBA action will pick back up on Saturday night with the Nuggets set to host the Mavericks during the final game on NBA TV’s nationally televised slate. So, VI is getting you ready with a variety betting resources to help handicap all the evening’s top events.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Mavericks vs. Nuggets

Line Movements

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Nuggets -1.5
  • Money-Line: Denver -120, Dallas +100
  • Total: 226.5

The Nuggets head into Saturday’s matchup as a 1.5-point home favorite – which marks the ninth time Nikola Jokic and company have been favored across their last 10 contests.

The total for this contest currently sits at OU 226.5, which is just the second time since the start of March that the ‘over-under’ for a Mavericks has been set above 225 (U 227 vs SA).


The Nuggets return home with no rest to battle the Mavericks for the third time this season. (AP)

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Current Form-Last Game

The Mavericks head into Saturday’s contest having won five of their last seven games, with their only losses across that stretch coming in matchups that Kristaps Porzingis did not participate in.

Dallas’ most recent affair resulted in an 8-point loss to Oklahoma City, which was a contest that Luka Doncic also did not participate in, along with Porzingis.

On the other hand, the Nuggets come into this matchup riding a five-game winning streak – with their most recent victory coming in a 1-point win over the Grizzlies last night, propelled by three Denver starters recording 20+ points in the contest.


Mavericks vs. Nuggets Head-to-Head

  • Jan. 25, 2021 - Nuggets 117 at Mavericks 113, Denver -2, Over 223
  • Jan. 7, 2021 - Mavericks 124 at Nuggets 117 (OT), Dallas +2.5, Over 222

The Mavericks and Nuggets have split a pair of matchups during this year’s regular season, with both of those meetings occurring back in January.

The first matchup between Dallas and Denver this season required overtime to determine a winner – with Jokic and Doncic chipping in 38 points apiece to highlight a tantalizing scoring duel.

It was the Mavericks who ended up escaping with the victory though, as Luka’s nine points following the conclusion of regulation ended up being enough to seal the victory for Dallas.

While the second matchup between these teams resulted in a win for the Nuggets, as Denver received 30 points from Michael Porter Jr. and 17 points from JaMychal Green off the bench during a 4-point victory for Michael Malone’s guys.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Dallas Mavericks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 19-17 SU, 16-20 ATS, 17-19 OU
  • Road: 9-9 SU, 9-9 ATS, 8-10 OU

The Mavericks got off to a rocky start to the 2020-21 season without Porzingis in the lineup, but it is safe to say they have turned things around now that the Unicorn is back at full-strength – having won 10 of their last 13 games, with two of those losses coming in contests that Kristaps did not participate in (load-management).

The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last eight games containing the Mavericks now, which is indicative of how their season has gone so far this year – considering the ‘over’ has cashed in just 47.2% of Dallas’ games.

Denver Nuggets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 22-15 SU, 17-20 ATS, 23-14 OU
  • Home: 9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS, 10-6 OU

Despite finally starting to resemble a cohesive unit during the month of January, the unfortunate story that has been the Nuggets season picked back up with more mediocrity in February – with Denver going 6-7 SU and 4-9 ATS last month, while being favored in nine of those contests at most shops.

The total has gone ‘over’ is 24-13 in Nuggets games so far this year – which is 4th highest clip across the league in that department (62.2%). Make note though, that the total has stayed ‘under’ in five of their last six matchups – with last night’s low scoring affair giving Denver three consecutive ‘unders’ for the first time this season.

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks

  • None

Denver Nuggets

  • PF JaMychal Green: Shoulder - Questionable
  • SG Gary Harris: Hip - Out

Player Prop Best Bet

Jamal Murray – Over 22.5 Points (-104)

While Jokic has stolen the majority of the spotlight in Denver this season with his MVP-caliber play, Jamal Murray is quietly having his best season as pro as well – now averaging over 20 points per game for the first time in his career, while also averaging career-high numbers from the field (48.7%) and from three-point territory (39.8%).

Murray heads into Saturday’s matchup having scored 22 or more points in 12 straight contests, which includes his 50-point outing in Cleveland back in mid-February. I’ll back him to eclipse that number again here in a tough matchup with the Mavericks.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction

The Mavericks head into Saturday’s matchup having won four of their last five games, with their only loss across that stretch occurring on the second half of a back-to-back against Oklahoma City – which was a contest Porzingis and Doncic both did not participate in.

While the Nuggets come into this contest riding a five-game winning streak, but will be playing without a day’s rest after squaring off with the Grizzlies last night.

I’ll take Dallas with the points here, as I anticipate Denver having a tough time keeping up with the Mavericks if they get caught in a track meet, especially if any Nuggets starters decide to take the night off after picking up a win less than 24 hours ago.

Score Prediction: Mavericks 119, Nuggets 109
Best Bet: Dallas +1.5


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