Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:44 AM

Suns vs. Nuggets Predictions, Odds, Preview

June 11, 2021
by Michael Crosson
NBA Expert

Western Conference postseason action will resume on Friday night with Game 3 between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets set to wrap up ESPN’s nationally televised doubleheader.

Suns vs. Nuggets Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Suns vs. Nuggets

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Nuggets -1.5
  • Money-Line: Denver -125, Phoenix +105
  • Total: 222.5

After getting spanked by an average of 21 points per game in the first two matchups of this series, the Nuggets head back to the Mile High City for Game 3 as a 1.5-point favorite over the visiting Suns – marking the fifth time Phoenix has been listed as an underdog this postseason, despite posting a record of 6-2 SU and ATS during that timeframe.

The total for Friday’s contest is currently stationed at OU 222.5 – which has come down a couple of points after these teams’ latest matchup, despite Game 2 staying just ‘under' 224 due to Denver falling short the century-mark in the event.

Chris Paul and the Suns seek a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Nuggets on Friday night in Denver. (AP)

Suns vs. Nuggets Current Form

After assertively handling business against the defending champs in six games to kick off the postseason, it took the Suns a little while to get back into the swing of things in their second-round series opener against Denver – as Phoenix entered the second half of Game 1 trailing the Nuggets by a point.

The combination of Phoenix’s stifling defense and explosive offense enabled the Suns to easily run away with the victory after the break though – highlighted by Chris Paul and Devin Booker combining for 20 points on nine-of-nine from the field in the fourth quarter.

The Suns carried that unstoppable momentum through their wire-to-wire victory in Game 2 as well – as Phoenix continued its rampage by putting up 123 points behind another spectacular long-range performance in the blowout (48% 3PA), while also managing to hold Denver under 100 points for just the eighth time all season in a 123-98 win.

Suns vs. Nuggets Head-to-Head

  • Jun. 9, 2021 - Suns 123 vs. Nuggets 98, Phoenix -6, Under 224.5
  • Jun. 7, 2021 - Suns 122 vs. Nuggets 105, Phoenix -5.5, Over 222
  • Jan. 23, 2021 - Nuggets 120 at Suns 112 (OT), Denver -2.5, Over 215.5
  • Jan. 22, 2021 - Nuggets 130 at Suns 126 (OT), Denver +1, Over 219
  • Jan. 1, 2021 - Suns 106 at Nuggets 103, Phoenix +3.5, Under 221

Denver claimed wins in two-of-three matchups against Phoenix during the regular season – with the Suns picking up a narrow three-point victory in the first meeting, and the Nuggets escaping with a pair of overtime victories in the following two.

Anything that happens during the regular season should be taken with a grain of salt, but Booker didn’t participate in the final overtime matchup between these teams and Jamal Murray did – which doesn’t bode well for Denver, considering the opposing superstars’ roles have been reversed for this series.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Phoenix Suns Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 57-23 SU, 48-30-2 ATS, 44-35-1 OU
  • Road: 26-13 SU, 21-16-2 ATS, 22-17 OU

The Suns were probably the most doubted second-seed to open the postseason in recent memory – and I also, am guilty of picking L.A. over Phoenix in the first round, but that was before Anthony Davis re-injured himself and left hobbled LeBron James on an island against what has gradually turned into a very dangerous basketball team.

That being said, the Suns have quickly proven that they are a legitimate threat to take home this year’s NBA title – especially if they can make quick work out of Denver in this series and get the veterans on the squad some much-needed recovery time.

It will be interesting to see how the Nuggets respond after getting throttled on the road by an average of 21 points in the first two matchups of this series – but I won’t be shocked if we just get two more games of non-competitive basketball and Phoenix cracks out the brooms here.

Denver Nuggets Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 51-29 SU, 38-42 ATS, 45-35 OU
  • Home: 27-12 SU, 18-21 ATS, 25-14 OU

The Nuggets’ chances of reaching the NBA Finals appeared to be chalked after the season-ending injury to last year's playoff hero Murray back in April.

Things weren’t looking too hot for them after their first-round postseason opener either, as Denver got pummeled by Portland at home in Game 1 – leaving Nikola Jokic and company utterly disrespected as a four-point underdog in three of five matchups to close out the series.

Portland getting tagged as favorites didn’t mean squat in any of those events though – considering Denver claimed outright victories by an average of 12 points per game across the three first-round matchups Portland was favored in.

Key Injuries

Phoenix Suns

  • None

Denver Nuggets

  • SG Jamal Murray: Knee - Out
  • SG P.J. Dozier: Groin - Out

Suns vs. Nuggets Player Prop Best Bet

Aaron Gordon – Over 1.5 Made Threes (+270)

After averaging 14.3 points while shooting 6-of-10 from beyond the arc in the Nuggets’ three home playoff matchups against Portland, Aaron Gordon has looked a little bit out of his comfort zone away from the Mile High City to open this second-round series – averaging just 12 points on zero-of-four long-range attempts across Denver’s two ugly losses in The Valley.

I’ll take a flier on Gordon bouncing back from three-point land here though – as I have a hunch Denver’s role-players are going to step up and knock down some big shots at home in Game 3, and at least make the event somewhat competitive.

Suns vs. Nuggets Prediction

Despite getting run out of the Valley by an average of 21 points per game in the first two matchups of this series, the Nuggets return to Denver for Game 3 as a short home favorite over Phoenix – which marks the fifth time Vegas has doubted the Suns along their current 6-2 postseason campaign.

I’ll take the points with Phoenix here, as Denver clearly can’t handle the Suns’ explosive backcourt at the defensive end – and the Nuggets playing at home just isn’t really moving the needle for me.

Score Prediction: Suns 118, Nuggets 109
Best Bet: Phoenix +1.5

We may be compensated by the company links provided on this page. Read more

NBA News