Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:44 AM

Bucks vs. Hawks Predictions, Odds, Preview

June 29, 2021
by Michael Crosson
NBA Expert

The Eastern Conference Finals will resume at State Farm Arena in Atlanta this Tuesday night with the Bucks and Hawks set to square off for a crucial Game 4 at 8:30 Eastern time on TNT.

Bucks vs. Hawks Betting Resources

Betting Odds - Bucks vs. Hawks

Subject to Change

  • Spread: Bucks -6.5
  • Money-Line: Milwaukee -265, Atlanta +225
  • Total: 219

After letting Game 3 slip away in the fourth quarter on Sunday night, the Hawks return to State Farm Arena for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals as a six-point underdog against the visiting Bucks – which is a few notches up the ladder from the previous line set between these teams (MIL -5.5).

The over-under for Tuesday’s fourth ECF matchup has fallen to OU 219 – which is the lowest total set for a contest in this series.

Bucks' guard Kris Middleton is coming off a strong game as Milwaukee seeks a 3-1 series lead over Atlanta. (AP)

Bucks vs. Hawks Current Form

After a pair of grueling seven-game victories over heavily favored opponents in the previous round, Milwaukee and Atlanta surprisingly emerged from their respective Game 7’s as the final two teams standing in the Eastern playoff bracket – setting the stage for a somewhat unconventional conference finals matchup.

All that said, the oddsmakers still went all-in on Milwaukee from the jump in this year’s ECF – tagging the Bucks as eight-point favorites in Game 1 while also listing them as a -500 favorite to win the series.

That enormous wager wasn’t looking great after Game 1 too, as Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday combined for an impressive 67 points on 56% shooting across Wednesday’s series opener – but it wasn’t quite enough to fend off Atlanta’s late-game scoring invasion propelled by Trae Young (48 points).

The Bucks came ferociously charging back though, as Milwaukee quickly turned the tables on Atlanta with a pair of commanding double-digit victories in Games 2 and 3 – leaving the Hawks in a highly vulnerable position ahead of Tuesday’s fourth matchup at State Farm Arena, especially with Young now dealing with a bruised right ankle.

Bucks vs Hawks Head-to-Head

  • Jun. 27, 2021 - Bucks 113 at Hawks 102, Milwaukee -4.5, Under 224
  • Jun. 25, 2021 - Bucks 125 vs. Hawks 91, Milwaukee -8.5, Under 226
  • Jun. 23, 2021 - Hawks 116 at Bucks 113, Atlanta +8, Over 225
  • Apr. 21, 2021 - Hawks 111 vs. Bucks 104, Atlanta +5.5, Under 229
  • Apr. 15, 2021 - Bucks 120 at Hawks 109, Milwaukee -4, Under 236
  • Jan. 24, 2021 - Bucks 129 vs. Hawks 115, Milwaukee -12, Over 225

The Bucks won two of three matchups against the Hawks during the regular season – with Milwaukee’s pair of victories cruising over the number set for Wednesday’s opener (236.5 PPG), and Atlanta’s lone victory staying under that mark (215 points).

Make note, Young was sidelined for two of those regular-season affairs.

The matchup Trae participated in still resulted in a double-digit victory for the Bucks though, as Atlanta’s primary scoring threat posted dismal numbers from the field in his previous lone outing against Milwaukee – tallying just 15 points on 3-of-17 from the field in the loss.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 56-30 SU, 40-46 ATS, 45-39-2 OU
  • Road: 24-19 SU, 18-25 ATS, 20-20-1 OU

After stomping the Hawks by 34 at Fiserv Forum in Game 2, it looked like most of Milwaukee’s starting lineup left its best stuff at home on Sunday night – as Holiday, P.J. Tucker, and Brook Lopez combined for just 19 points on 35% shooting throughout the third event of this series.

Fortunately, Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton had absolute field days at State Farm Arena in Game 3 – as the Bucks’ superstar duo teamed up for 71 points on 59.5% shooting to propel Milwaukee to a second straight double-digit victory over Atlanta.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

  • Overall: 50-37 SU, 48-38-1 ATS, 39-48 OU
  • Home: 28-14 SU, 26-16 ATS, 18-24 OU

Despite knocking off the top-seeded Sixers in the previous round, Atlanta (+375) still entered this year’s Eastern Conference Finals as heavy underdogs against Milwaukee (-500).

Those prices were both briefly chopped in half following Atlanta’s thrilling win in Game 1 at Fiserv Forum (-200/+170) – but after rumbling back with two straight double-digit victories in Games 2 and 3, the Bucks (-2000) have returned to their pedestal of heavy favorites over Atlanta (+900) in this series.

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks

  • SG Donte DiVincenzo: Foot - Out

Atlanta Hawks

  • PG Trae Young: Ankle - Questionable
  • PF De'Andre Hunter: Knee - Out
  • PG Brandon Goodwin: Illness - Out

Bucks vs. Hawks Player Prop Best Bet

P.J. Tucker Under 4.5 Points (-121)

After averaging seven points on 7.5 field goal attempts in Games 6 and 7 against Brooklyn, Tucker has scored a total of just eight points on seven shot attempts to kick off the Eastern Conference Finals against Atlanta – which averages out to 2.7 points on 2.3 FGA across those three events.

I’ll back Tucker to stay 'under' again here, as he’s scored five points or more in just 4-of-14 postseason outings so far – and I doubt P.J. will be receiving a spike in offensive usage anytime soon.

Bucks vs. Hawks Prediction

After staying 'under' the number in back-to-back events by posting an average of 215.5 points across Games 2 and 3, the total for Tuesday’s fourth ECF matchup has fallen to OU 219 – which is the lowest bar set for a contest in this series.

I’ll take the 'under' in Game 4, as I have a feeling Atlanta will noticeably tighten things up on defense for the rest of this series – and there’s probably a good chance Milwaukee takes its foot off the gas a little bit after posting consecutive double-digit victories in Games 2 and 3.

Score Prediction: Bucks 108, Hawks 105
Best Bet: Under 219

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