Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Odds, Picks

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Nov. 4, 2021

Eytan Shander
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Miami Heat are red hot with the best point differential in the NBA, and the Celtics needed a trip to Orlando to stop a three-game losing streak. The two teams collide 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday night on NBATV.

Score Prediction

Heat 110, Celtics 100

Best Bets

Heat -7.5

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Predictions

Miami is one of the best teams in the NBA as illustrated by how well they’ve played during this five-game win streak. Jimmy Butler is getting MVP chatter – granted, it’s early – and is seeing a complete cast step up around him.

Miami has allowed less than 100 points in three of those five wins, while going over that number in all their wins. Boston is weakened in the backcourt from last season and it’s just a bad matchup with Kyle Lowry coming alive. Miami should be able to push around Boston up front, as Bam Adebayo is becoming one of the top centers in the league. Miami can shoot, they can slash, and they can defend. Boston is struggling to find their identity and gives up a lot of points.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been given little help on the offensive end, but the Celtics may be struggling even more so on defense. Boston looked bad – at times awful – in their three-game losing streak, looking wildly inconsistent. Just as Brown started to come out of the COVID funk, Tatum went ice cold. Al Horford is playing high minutes but is putting up emptier numbers – especially in their losses. The Celtics aren’t pushing Miami in a shootout but do have enough defense on the wing to slow down Butler.

The usual suspect is Butler who is playing at the highest level on the team. It’s a couple of guys around him however, that are making things tougher for opponents. Lowry had a huge 22-point night with 6 3’s in a win over the Mavs.

He’s going to be a tough matchup for a Boston team that’s 30th in OPG. Adebayo has been playing significantly better and more aggressive on the offensive end, already adding to his defensive prowess. Tyler Herro is the second-leading scorer behind Butler as the Heat get a ton of production from behind the arc. The Heat are 2nd overall in both scoring and OPG and should dictate the tempo of this game all night.

Boston doesn’t have a scoring problem so much as a problem giving up a ton of points. They enter the game top-5 in scoring offense, especially after destroying the Magic the previous night. But that was still a basketball game, and the Celtics are still on the second leg of a back- to-back.

Boston beat the Magic by 13 points but still saw four of their five starters play 30+ minutes, including starting PG Marcus Smart. The last thing Miami looks is tired, and Boston can’t afford to lag on defense, or the Heat will torch them. Unfortunately for Boston, they lag on defense with a day or two of rest.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Odds Provided by WynnBet - Subject to Change

• Heat -7.5 (-110)
• Celtics +7.5 (-110)
• Over 214.5 (-110)
• Under 214.5 (-110)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Southeast
• Date: Thursday, November 4, 2021
• Venue: FTX Arena
• Location: Miami, Florida
• TV-Time: NBATV - 7:30 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 2-5
• ATS: 2-5
• O/U: 4-3

Although he’s played one fewer game than Tatum, Brown is averaging a full point more per game at 26.7. Tatum isn’t shooting the ball well this year, down to 39.5% from the floor overall – and just 27.1% from three. Horford and Dennis Schroder are the only other Celtics to average double-figures, each in the lower 14 PPG range.

Smart is only averaging 8.8 PPG but is second on the team with 4 APG. Schroder leads the team off the bench with 6.4 APG. Tatum slides in just under 4 assists a night but adds 8.4 RPG. Robert Williams III is at 8.5 RPG, with Horford leading the team at 10.4 RPG.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 6-1
• ATS: 6-1
• O/U: 3-4

Butler and Herro provide nearly 50 points of offense a night. Butler is averaging 25 PPG and Herro is at 22.4, with the latter firing just under 41% from three. Butler is shooting just over 51% from the floor, adding 7 RPG.

Herro is the fourth-leading rebounder with just over 6 RPG. Bam is a monster on the glass, swiping nearly 14 RPG. He’s the third-leading scorer on the Heat and the only other player to score at least 20 a night – 20.8 PPG to be exact.

Lowry missed one game but is slowly coming back to Toronto form averaging 7.5 APG, with Butler behind him at 5.6 APG and Herro at 4.4 APG.

The Miami Heat have covered the spread in six of their last seven games. (AP)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

The first matchup between these two teams will be Thursday night in South Beach. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Celtics.

Key Players to Watch

• BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (26.7 ppg, 6.5 rpg)
• BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (25.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg)
• MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (25 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 5.6 apg)
• MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (20.8 ppg, 13.8 rpg)

Injuries

• Max Strus - SG (Out)

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

Miami is 3-0 ATS as the favorite, 4-1 with a spread between -9.5 to -6.5, and 6-1 in their last seven following an off day. All of this to go up against a team in Boston that can’t stop anyone from scoring.

The Heat aren’t a team anymore that struggles with offense or relies only on Butler slashing and two guys launching threes. They have become one of the most prolific and balanced scoring offenses and Boston doesn’t have the defensive legs – especially on the second night of a back-to-back – to keep up.

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

• Miami has covered the spread in six of its last seven games.
• Miami has covered the spread in five of its last six games when facing Boston.

VegasInsider Staff

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