Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Nationally televised NBA coverage will resume on Monday night with a compelling Eastern Conference Showdown between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from TD Garden at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV.

SCORE PREDICTION

Heat 114, Celtics 106

BEST BETS

Heat +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS PREDICTIONS

After finishing sixth in the East with a record of 40-32 SU last year, Miami stormed out to an excellent start to this season, as the Heat kicked things off with a triumphant 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS run – with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game lull to open December though (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has maintained a similar pace through January too, considering the Heat boast records of 18-7 SU and 15-10 ATS across their last 25 games – despite getting tagged as underdogs in ten of those contests.

On the other hand, the Celtics posted a surprisingly frustrating start to the season, as Boston kicked things off with a lackluster 15-19 SU and ATS skid – with ten of those SU losses coming by double-digits.

The Celtics’ recent success has primarily come through defense though, considering Boston enters Monday sitting at 10-6 SU across the last 16 games – while scoring 108.1 PPG compared to allowing just 99.8 PPG during that span.

I’ll back Miami here, as despite Boston currently riding a solid 9-5 SU run, the Celtics have still scored 105 PTS or less in nine of their last 14 games (106.3 PPG) – setting the stage for a tough home matchup against a Heat squad that’s tallied 112.9 PPG across their current 9-3 SU stretch.

MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING RESOURCES

• Matchup: Southeast vs. Atlantic
• Date: Monday, January 31, 2022
• Venue: TD Garden
• Location: Boston, Massachhusetts
• TV-Time: NBATV - 7:30 p.m. ET
• Injury Report

MIAMI HEAT BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 32-18
• ATS: 29-21
• O/U: 31-19

After last year’s relatively disappointing 40-32 SU showing, the Heat made some significant changes during the offseason to better suit needs at the offensive end – ultimately, acquiring All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry through a blockbuster deal.

The acquisition worked out flawlessly at first, as Miami kicked off the year with a solid 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS run – with the Heat’s only ATS losses coming in tough matchups against the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics.

The depth Miami sacrificed in order to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed though, as a revolving door of health and safety concerns spiraled Miami into a frustrating 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid back in November – but depth hasn’t been much of an issue recently, considering the Heat sit 18-7 SU across their last 25 games.

BOSTON CELTICS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 26-25
• ATS: 25-25-1
• O/U: 21-29-1

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, the Celtics posted a similarly underwhelming start to this season, as Boston opened with a pedestrian 7-8 SU and 9-6 ATS run – and seemingly remain trapped in that rut, considering the Celtics are just 19-17 SU and 16-19-1 ATS since that point.

The Celtics can’t snap out of this slump with such decrepit shooting numbers though, considering Boston ranks just 20th in offensive efficiency and 23rd in effective field-goal percentage (1.065 OE, 51.8% EFG) – resulting in a low-hanging average of 107.7 PPG.

MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS HEAD-TO-HEAD

The Heat won two-of-three regular-season matchups against the Celtics last year, with both of Miami’s victories soaring over the total at a lofty average of 252 PPG – while Boston’s lone win stayed under at a score of 107-105. The most recent matchup between these teams took place back in November of this season though, which resulted in another low-scoring victory for the Celtics (95-78).

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

• MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (22 PPG, 6.3 REB, 6.3 AST)
• MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.3 PPG, 4.9 REB, 4 AST)
• BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.2 PPG,8.4 REB, 4 AST)
• BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (24.3 PPG, 6.6 REB, 3 AST)

MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING CONCLUSION

After posting a double-digit victory in New Orleans on Friday night (W, 107-97), the Celtics return home for Monday’s contest as narrow underdogs against the Heat at TD Garden – marking the first time Boston has been an underdog at home since their New Year’s Eve matchup against the Suns (BOS +3.5).

I’ll lay the points with Miami here, as the Heat are 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS across their last 12 games, while scoring 112.9 PPG offensively and allowing just 105.8 PPG defensively during that timeframe – likely presenting a steep uphill battle for a Celtics squad that’s scored 105 PTS or less eight times across their latest 14-game window (106.3 PPG).

MIAMI HEAT VS. BOSTON CELTICS BETTING TRENDS

• The Heat are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven Celtics' games.
• The total has gone OVER in five straight Heat' games.
• The total has gone OVER in six of the last eight matchups between Boston and Miami.
• The Celtics are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson