Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

Nationally televised NBA action will conclude on Thursday night with a compelling Western Conference showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets. Coverage begins from Ball Arena at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Nuggets 116, Warriors 112

Best Bets

Nuggets +3.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Warriors vs. Nuggets Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with an impressive 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run – with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

The last couple of months have been shaky without Draymond Green though, considering the Warriors enter Thursday riding a relatively bumpy 26-19 SU and 16-26-3 ATS stretch – despite getting tagged as favorites in 35 of those contests.

On the other hand, Denver stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Nuggets kicked things off with a lackluster 20-19 SU and 16-23 ATS stretch – while averaging just 105.6 OPPG across that window.

The Nuggets have played excellent since the midway point of January though, considering Denver boasts records of 19-7 SU and 14-11-1 ATS across their last 26 games – while scoring 119.8 OPPG and surrendering just 112.1 DPPG during that span.

I’ll back Denver here, as the Warriors are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in their last nine games, while scoring just 114.7 OPPG and allowing 115.6 DPPG during that timeframe – setting the stage for another unfavorable road matchup against a Nuggets squad that’s averaging 120.4 OPPG across their latest 11-2 SU run.

Warriors vs. Nuggets Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Warriors vs. Nuggets Betting Resources

• Matchup: Pacific vs. Northwest
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Venue: Ball Arena
• Location: Denver, CO
• TV-Time: TNT - 10:00 p.m. ET
• Injury Report

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

• SU: 44-22
• ATS: 32-30-4
• O/U: 29-35-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, the Warriors returned seeking immediate vengeance to open the new season, as Golden State kicked things off with wins in 18 of their first 20 games – with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December, considering the Warriors enter Thursday riding a relatively pedestrian 26-20 SU stretch, while scoring just 109.8 OPPG and allowing 106.9 DPPG across that window. Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging 115.5 OPPG across their last 19 games.

Denver Nuggets Betting Analysis

• SU: 39-26
• ATS: 30-34-1
• O/U: 34-29-2

Despite the year-long absence of Jamal Murray, Denver has still strung together an admirable regular-season campaign, considering the Nuggets sit sixth in the Western Conference standings with a record of 39-26 SU – which trails the fifth-place Mavericks and fourth-place Jazz by less than two games.

The Nuggets have experienced their fair share of additional health issues throughout the year, primarily highlighted by Michael Porter Jr.’s extensive absence. However, I still like my chances with Denver here as long as Nikola Jokic plays, considering the Nuggets have tallied 115+ PTS in seven of their last nine contests (121.9 OPPG) – and they’ve surrendered 110 PTS or less in four of their last seven (112.3 DPPG).

Warriors vs. Nuggets Head-to-Head

The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Denver last year, with all three matchups staying under the total at an average of 218.7 PPG. The Nuggets are 3-0 SU against Golden State this season though, with the first matchup staying well under the number at a score of 89-86 (U 217.5) – while the ensuing two affairs soared over at an average of 244 PPG.

Key Players to Watch

• GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.6 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.4 AST)
• GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (16.7 PPG, 4 REB, 2.9 AST)
• DEN: Nikola Jokic - C (25.9 PPG, 13.8 REB, 8.1 AST)
• DEN: Will Barton - SF (14.8 PPG, 4.9 REB, 3.8 AST)

Warriors vs. Nuggets Betting Conclusion

After snapping a five-game losing streak with a victory over the Clippers on Tuesday night (W, 112-97), the Warriors hit the road for Thursday’s contest as short underdogs against the Nuggets at Ball Arena – marking the third time Golden State has been an underdog across their last five games.

I’ll back Denver here, as the Nuggets are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games, while scoring 120.4 OPPG and allowing just 111.5 DPPG across that window – likely serving as another difficult road matchup for a Warriors squad that’s surrendered 120+ PTS in four of their last five games (120.6 DPPG).

Warriors vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 3-7 ATS in their last ten matchups against Golden State.
• The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last ten matchups between Golden State and Denver.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the last five Warriors' games.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson